Transcript [00:02] Welcome to Waving for 61, JTA's Israel [00:05] election podcast where we break down the [00:07] fundamentals of Israel's 2026 elections, [00:10] the politics, the players, and what's at [00:12] stake as the country heads to the polls. [00:15] I'm Ami Eden, the CEO of 70 Faces Media, [00:18] the organization behind the Jewish [00:20] Telegraphic Agency. [00:21] >> And I'm Ruth Eglash, JTA's senior Israel [00:24] correspondent. Today marks 15 days until [00:27] Israelis cast their votes, and we're [00:29] here to keep you up to speed on the [00:30] latest twists and turns [music] [00:32] and give you the context you need to [00:34] make sense of it all. [00:35] >> One note before we begin. Every Friday [00:38] we'll be answering questions from [00:39] [music] you, our audience. So if [00:41] something sparks your curiosity or [00:43] there's an aspect of Israeli politics [00:45] you'd like us to explain, [music] [00:46] send us your questions at [00:48] waitingfor61@jta.org. [00:51] >> [music] [00:51] >> And we're going to put that address in [00:53] the show notes, as well. [00:54] Um Ruth, let's start with the the basic [00:57] question, the title of this uh podcast. [01:00] Why 61? [01:02] >> Well, I mean, Israel's parliament, the [01:04] Knesset, has 120 seats. [01:07] And in order for a party or a faction to [01:10] or a prime minister can to control the [01:13] parliament or to get its legislation [01:16] passed by the parliament, that [01:18] government or that prime minister needs [01:19] to have a majority in the Knesset. So [01:22] they need at least 61 seats for them to [01:24] successfully control or 61 [01:27] representatives sitting in those seats [01:29] for them to control um the parliament to [01:31] get the policies and the legislation [01:34] that they want. [01:35] And there has been a few times over [01:36] Israel's history where there's been a [01:38] minority government, where there's been [01:40] less than 61, and they managed to rule [01:42] somehow by having outside support, [01:45] having um a party agreement with a party [01:48] on the periphery, maybe an Arab party, [01:50] that would vote together with the [01:52] government on key legislation, but those [01:54] minority governments didn't last very [01:56] long. [01:57] >> Okay. And now let's maybe the more [01:58] complicated part. Why the waiting for? [02:01] >> So, um as most of the listeners know, [02:04] we're going to be going Israelis are [02:05] going to be going to the polls on [02:07] October 27th. Um but like in every other [02:10] election before uh this this one, the [02:13] most likely won't be one party that will [02:16] get enough seats to reach 61. [02:19] No party in Israel's history has ever [02:21] won enough seats to dominate the entire [02:23] Knesset or even to have a small [02:25] majority. [02:26] And so the main part actually after the [02:29] vote, the main part of the election [02:31] cycle is the coalition building process. [02:34] And this starts after Israelis have gone [02:36] to the polls, after every vote has been [02:38] counted, then the coalition [02:40] uh building process begins. And each [02:42] party is summoned to meet with the [02:44] president and asked by the president [02:47] which candidate they would like to see [02:49] form a government. And whoever the [02:52] president decides has the best chance of [02:54] forming a government, they will ask them [02:56] to put put a coalition together or to [02:57] start putting a coalition together. [02:59] >> I think a lot of people are thinking [03:01] this election, however intensely they're [03:03] following it, they probably all are kind [03:05] of looking at the question of will [03:07] Netanyahu get another [03:09] term? [03:10] Netanyahu could finish with the most [03:13] votes and not be given the opportunity [03:17] to form the coalition. Even if somebody [03:19] even if Eisenkot finished second, you're [03:21] saying if if if if a majority of the [03:23] parties [03:25] representing the most seats tell the [03:26] president of Israel, "Oh, we actually [03:28] think Eisenkot should be the prime [03:30] minister." Even if Bibi gets the most [03:32] seats, he might not get the first [03:34] opportunity to form a government. [03:35] >> And also, you know, the the party or the [03:38] person who's asked to form the [03:39] government by the president is given 28 [03:41] days with a 14-day possible extension to [03:45] form the government. And if they don't [03:46] succeed in doing it in that time, then [03:48] it could go to one of the other [03:50] candidates. And we saw that happen, I [03:52] think it was in 2020 when Netanyahu [03:55] tried to form a government twice. He [03:57] didn't succeed and we went to elections [03:59] the first time and the second time [04:01] he tried to form a government, he [04:02] couldn't do it. And the president asked [04:05] Benny Gantz who who came second, who got [04:07] the second amount of votes. And he was [04:11] asked to form a government and then he [04:12] had 28 days to form a government. [04:14] >> You know, I keep thinking of it like [04:16] that joke about two synagogues on a [04:18] deserted island. It's like they find [04:20] some Israeli on a deserted island. I'm [04:23] adapting it, but you know, he sets up an [04:25] electoral system with 15 parties and [04:27] they ask him why 15 parties. He's like, [04:29] "So, the one I'm going to vote for and [04:31] the 14 I'm not going to vote for." Why [04:33] are there so many parties? Why do you [04:34] need 15 parties in an election? [04:37] >> There's always been many parties running [04:39] in Israeli elections. I mean, it's not [04:41] something new. In the first election [04:43] Israel ever held in January 1949, there [04:45] were 21 parties. So, there's always been [04:48] this tradition of having many many [04:50] parties. Most of them don't have a real [04:51] chance of passing the threshold or of of [04:54] even getting I mean, today you need a [04:56] minimum of four seats to get into the [04:58] Knesset. Today there's 38 [05:01] lists, not even parties, but lists cuz [05:03] some of them are two parties that have [05:05] come together and submitted a shared [05:07] list, a joint list. Um but there's 38 [05:10] parties and probably out of those only [05:13] about 12 have a realistic chance of [05:16] getting into the Knesset. [05:17] >> Only 12? Only 12? [05:21] >> Yeah, but you know, you know, you [05:23] You say that, but within the Democratic [05:25] Party in the United States and within [05:26] the Republican Party, there are many [05:28] different factions. Like on paper you [05:31] have two you have two different parties, [05:33] but in reality within those parties you [05:35] probably have about 20 little smaller [05:38] groups that make up those parties. [05:39] >> But if you look at other parliamentary [05:42] systems, you're not going to usually see [05:44] necessarily 10 parties in a government. [05:47] So, you know, in addition to there being [05:49] so many parties, which is that's kind of [05:51] been a staple of Israeli politics, but I [05:53] I was kind of I was on chat GBT [05:56] crunching some numbers, and what's [05:57] really striking, and I wonder if you can [05:59] speak to this, is yes, there's always [06:01] been a lot of parties, but there was [06:03] always sort of a clear party or two [06:06] depending on different phases in Israeli [06:07] history that were really dominant. And [06:09] so, I was looking in the first eight [06:11] elections when Labor really uh [06:14] dominated the country to 1977, [06:16] they would get an average about 46 [06:18] seats, you know, out of the 120. [06:21] From 1977 to 2000, it was about 40 [06:24] seats. And in this century, in the [06:26] 2000s, the top party is down to 32 seats [06:31] on average. If we believe the polls, [06:34] either Eisenkot or Netanyahu, or both, [06:36] are going to get 22 seats out of 120. [06:39] That's 18%. [06:41] So, yes, Israel's always had [06:44] a ton of parties, but there's always [06:45] like a main party or two. But now, like [06:48] again, we're going to win with, you [06:50] know one [06:51] you know, one party's going to have 20 [06:53] to 23 seats, 18% or so. What is going [06:57] on? Why is there not a dominant party or [07:00] two in the way that there used to be? [07:03] >> In Israel specifically, as I said, the [07:05] system encourages that sectarianism. And [07:07] I I mean, maybe it's just the definition [07:09] of ultimate democracy where everyone [07:12] gets chance to express their their [07:14] feelings or their ideologies. So, you [07:16] have the system that gets further and [07:18] further broken down. And you know, the [07:20] the parties that were around that in the [07:22] years that you're talking about in the [07:24] founding of the state, except for Likud, [07:26] they don't exist anymore. I mean, Labor [07:28] was one of the last old parties, and [07:31] it's now disappeared, and it's become [07:33] the Democrats, which is a a coalition of [07:36] all the left-wing parties that were left [07:38] at the end of the last election. [07:40] >> One thing you mentioned we've mentioned [07:41] a couple times that I might be news to [07:44] some listeners in America is you know, [07:47] we're talking about parties and so like [07:48] when it is when an Israeli goes to the [07:51] ballot box to vote, we talk a lot about [07:53] personalities now a BB Eisenkot, [07:56] Bennett, but you're technically you're [07:58] voting for a list. You're voting for a [08:00] party with a list of Is it a hundred? Do [08:03] Do each of them have a hundred and [08:04] twenty on their list? In theory or they [08:06] have the anyway, you're voting for [08:08] you're voting for a list and each of [08:09] these people we're talking about is at [08:11] the top of the list. But technically [08:13] you're not voting for Netanyahu or [08:16] Eisenkot or Bennett or Lieberman, you're [08:18] voting for a party. [08:20] >> You know, there's a tendency I think to [08:22] especially because Netanyahu is such a [08:25] charismatic personality and he's been [08:27] around for so long and he dominates the [08:30] you know, the news cycle so much. So [08:32] there is a tendency to think well, you [08:34] know, people are people going to vote [08:35] for Netanyahu or against Netanyahu? No, [08:38] they it's a parliamentary system. So [08:40] really in essence you're voting for a [08:42] party. So even if you don't like the [08:44] leader of the party even let's say [08:46] you're a Likud carrying card member of [08:49] Likud decided after October 7th that you [08:52] don't like Netanyahu. You will probably [08:54] still likely to vote for Likud because [08:56] you like Likud, you like where it stands [08:58] on the political spectrum and you like [09:00] its policies regarding whatever [09:02] economics or [09:04] or maybe Palestinian issue or whatever [09:07] it is that you is is what is the most [09:09] what is the most important issue for [09:10] you. And I think it's the same with the [09:12] other parties too. I mean I hear many [09:14] people saying well, you know, Bennett [09:16] and Lapid have put together a very [09:18] professional list of policymakers that [09:21] will really make a difference if they [09:23] get elected to the government and those [09:25] are the people who end up being in [09:26] different ministries like I think they [09:28] have you know, one of the top educators [09:30] in Israel and they have someone who was [09:32] formerly the director general of the [09:34] transport ministry. So you think well, [09:36] well that person would be a good fit to [09:38] run the transport ministry rather than [09:40] just putting someone in there who [09:41] doesn't know anything about that topic. [09:43] So, I think there is there there are [09:46] people who vote according to the list [09:49] and they don't go on the personality of [09:51] that individual person who is running at [09:53] the top. But may maybe I'm just hopeful, [09:55] I don't know. But I feel like people do [09:58] pay attention to the lists. I mean, we [10:00] have this one interesting list of the [10:03] the Islamist party, Ra'am, that has a [10:06] Jewish Israeli politician running as [10:09] their number two on the list. And I [10:11] think that that will shape how people [10:14] vote for the for the Arab parties [10:16] because he is a character who is known, [10:18] Yossi Finkelstein. [10:20] He is known as someone who is is good at [10:23] fighting crime, organized crime. And [10:26] that is a topic that is a very very [10:28] concerning topic for Israel's Arab [10:30] community. So, even if they're not [10:32] Islamists, they might vote for Ra'am [10:35] because he's on the list. [10:37] >> All right, just before we close, [10:39] we've been talking a lot about the [10:41] logistics and the mechanics of Israeli [10:43] elections. In terms of like what is at [10:46] stake, I mean, it seems one thing I [10:48] think that's clear to anybody who's just [10:50] following this even passively is is Bibi [10:52] going to be the prime minister or not [10:54] again. And I guess for a lot of people [10:55] that is [10:56] the [10:58] main thing. But can you just briefly and [11:01] we'll unpack this in future episodes as [11:03] we move forward, what are the stakes [11:05] kind of underneath that? [11:07] >> Well, I I mean, for me I think I I break [11:09] it down into three areas. And I think [11:12] that you have [11:13] security and diplomacy. I mean, security [11:15] being the most talked about issue in the [11:18] last three years since October 7th, [11:20] Israel fighting a war on seven fronts [11:22] and it's still kind of going on here and [11:24] there. [11:25] You know, so that's one big issue and [11:27] then there's also the diplomacy issue [11:29] and you You we see [11:31] we also see what's happening around the [11:32] world with with the anti-Israel [11:35] activity, what's happening in the UN, [11:37] that kind of issue. So maybe like the [11:39] external factors. And then you have the [11:41] internal factors. And in the internal [11:43] factors I would break it down into two [11:45] areas. And maybe the first one would be [11:48] religion versus secular or religious [11:50] versus secular. And within that you [11:52] have, which is a very very important [11:54] topic, is the conscription of the [11:56] ultra-Orthodox to the to the military. [11:58] So that's one topic. And the other topic [12:00] I would say is the future of Israel as a [12:03] democracy, as as a country with the [12:05] democratic system of checks and balances [12:07] and the debate over whether Israel [12:09] should be a Jewish democratic state or a [12:12] democratic Jewish state. Like what [12:14] emphasis do you put on on first? And I [12:16] think that those are the three main [12:18] areas. And everything else that we will [12:21] be discussing in future episodes will [12:24] probably fit into those three areas. [12:26] >> On security [12:28] issues, feel like in the past, certainly [12:31] sitting in America, there often were [12:33] elections where [12:35] directionally [12:37] you kind of understood like [12:39] if the the left wins, that's going you [12:42] know, you're going about a two-state [12:43] solution or you know, a certain [12:45] diplomatic [12:47] approach will maybe we'll use the word [12:49] dovish. [12:50] And if if Likud or the right wing [12:53] wing wins, it's going to be hawkish. [12:56] And I feel like you have a lot of [12:57] Zionist liberals in America who are you [13:01] know, they don't want Netanyahu to win. [13:03] They're they're they they don't like [13:04] this right-wing government. But this [13:06] election feels different. And tell me if [13:09] I'm wrong in that [13:10] even if the quote right loses [13:13] the opposition [13:15] is made up of many right-wing or [13:16] right-leaning parties. So what the [13:18] security difference is going to be [13:21] might not be as stark [13:24] or clear as perhaps in the old sort of [13:26] like Oslo elections where it's like are [13:28] we we moving toward a two-state solution [13:31] or we not? Right? This is what's at [13:33] stake security-wise [13:35] is not as clear-cut as in past [13:37] elections. Is that is that fair? [13:38] >> I mean, I think it's very clear from my [13:40] coverage, from what I've seen here, that [13:43] this issue for that the Palestinian [13:45] issue doesn't even feature in the debate [13:48] almost at all. Which it did in previous [13:51] years, but this this time it's not. When [13:53] I talk about security, I'm talking about [13:55] people saying that Netanyahu didn't do [13:58] enough, didn't go far enough maybe in [14:00] Gaza, didn't uh go far enough when in [14:03] Lebanon, didn't uh he he's talked for [14:05] many years about getting rid of Iran's [14:07] nuclear program and that still hasn't [14:09] happened. So, even though we had a war [14:11] of, you know, 3 months, Iran is still a [14:13] threat. That's what we talk about when [14:15] we talk about security, how um that [14:18] government, next government, his [14:20] government, or the next government will [14:21] deal with um with those issues as [14:24] opposed to the Israeli-Palestinian [14:26] conflict. [14:27] >> just pause there because I want to I [14:28] want to I think this is a big important [14:30] thing for our listeners to understand. [14:32] In this election, the alternative to [14:35] Netanyahu, the like the the likely [14:37] coalition that would emerge, [14:39] nobody's talking about a Palestinian [14:42] state. Supposedly the more left-wing or [14:45] whatever you want to call it central [14:46] alternative to BB is basically running [14:49] on a on a series of critiques of where [14:52] BB was not where this government was not [14:54] effective enough or even hawkish enough [14:57] on certain issues like Hezbollah or Iran [15:00] or Hamas. So, it's a really confusing [15:04] picture if you're looking for a nice [15:06] tidy box of oh, this government was [15:08] super right and hawkish. If you're [15:11] somebody who's if what you care about is [15:13] oh, wouldn't it be great if there was a [15:14] more dovish government? Like that's not [15:16] really the the terms of debates that are [15:18] going on. [15:19] >> I I just want to mention one more thing [15:21] and that is that you know between now [15:23] and October 27th it doesn't seem like we [15:25] have a lot of time left but anything can [15:27] happen in Israel and every day something [15:30] is happening that is significant. Today [15:32] we're just getting reports that there [15:34] was some kind of explosion in northern [15:36] Israel and a a tour group of Israeli [15:38] school children maybe stepped on an [15:40] unexploded ordinance or or some [15:42] something of that kind it's not clear [15:44] yet as as we're speaking and I noticed [15:47] that all the the political parties you [15:50] had events planned for this evening [15:52] including the prime minister cancelled [15:54] those. So you know anything small big or [15:57] small that can happen between now and [15:59] the October 27th election can have an [16:02] impact on on on what we see on that day. [16:06] >> Okay so we're praying we're praying for [16:08] everyone [16:10] involved in that. That's it for today. [16:12] Please make sure to join us tomorrow for [16:14] the next episode of waiting for 61 [16:17] and don't forget you can send in your [16:19] questions to waitingfor61@jta.org [16:24] and again it'll be in the show notes.
