Transcript [00:00] Hey everyone. Okay, this video is part [00:02] two of the a two-part video series on [00:06] the Iran relationships with Russia and [00:08] China. So, I just made a video a few [00:10] minutes ago, probably up on the channel [00:12] already, about the Iran Russia [00:14] relationship as it is today. And in that [00:16] video, I showed how Iran is trumpeting [00:19] and praising the wonderful relationship [00:21] with Russia, talking about it non-stop [00:23] over the last week and a half or so [00:24] about how how in bed they are with [00:26] Russia. And I said in that video that I [00:29] I picked up on something because of [00:32] reading Iranian state media every day. [00:34] One of the things that happens when you [00:35] read state propaganda is you notice [00:38] certain patterns. [00:40] There's certain patterns in how they [00:42] report things and what stories they [00:43] focus on. And one of the constant drum [00:45] beats of Iranian state media over the [00:47] last year or so is to constantly remind [00:51] everyone how they have such good friends [00:54] in China and Russia, right? And of [00:56] course, China, Russia, Iran, that's a [00:57] three-way relationship that has been the [01:00] big three-way axis for a long time. They [01:02] each have strategic agreements with each [01:04] other, all three of them, with each one [01:06] with each other. And uh we talked about [01:09] this, you know, a long long time ago, [01:11] like in the 12-day war over a year ago, [01:16] China and Russia did not really come to [01:18] Iran's aid, but they do help them. [01:19] They've been helping them get around the [01:21] blockade. [01:23] And that video was all about the China [01:25] Russia relationship as it is now and how [01:27] China is talking non-stop about how [01:30] wonderful the relationship with Russia [01:31] is. But I was noticing there's no [01:32] mention of China in that. So what [01:34] happened to the China relationship? And [01:35] then I remembered remember this a few [01:37] weeks ago where there was a meeting of [01:40] the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, [01:42] these countries that are all this [01:43] economic cooperation group and Masud [01:46] Peshan, the president of Iran was there [01:49] and he met with Xihinping. [01:51] But Xihinping would not make it public [01:52] that they met and there was no [01:54] photograph. He would not be photographed [01:56] together with him and that was notable [01:58] at the time. And what we're going to see [02:00] in this video is that Iran is that [02:03] sorry, China may actually be backing [02:06] away from its relationship with Iran. [02:10] That's what we're looking at here. Check [02:11] it out. First headline, China scales [02:14] back trade with Iran as economic crisis [02:18] deepens. Check it out. China's rapidly [02:21] scaling back trade with Iran because [02:22] Thran is increasingly unable to pay for [02:25] goods they can't pay. Possibly also as a [02:28] result of the Trump Xihinping Xihinping [02:31] summit in Washington about a week and a [02:32] half ago. Economic data and diplomatic [02:36] officials familiar with the matter [02:37] indicate that Beijing has concluded [02:39] Beijing has come to the conclusion that [02:42] Iranian oil exports which had supplied a [02:45] significant share of crude powering the [02:47] Chinese economy will not resume in the [02:49] near future. China is therefore [02:50] beginning to make adjustments. They [02:52] can't get oil from Iran. They're going [02:54] elsewhere. One such measure is the [02:56] suspension of Chinese refined petroleum [02:59] exports amid fears of a potential [03:01] shortage and a desire to replenish [03:03] domestic stockpiles. Let me just explain [03:05] this one sentence. [03:07] China imports a lot of oil, crude oil, [03:11] but one of their major exports is [03:13] refined petroleum exports. They are [03:16] suspending those for the time being [03:19] because they don't have enough oil for [03:20] their own domestic consumption. China is [03:23] also reducing shipments of goods across [03:25] the border to Iran. [03:27] Ah remember the overland routes or the [03:31] ways that Iran has that China has been [03:34] helping get around the US blockade get [03:36] goods into China I'm sorry into Iran. [03:39] How China has been helping get goods [03:41] into Iran. Well, it looks like they are [03:43] stopping that. They're reducing [03:45] shipments of goods across the border to [03:47] Iran both because the sea route through [03:49] the straight of Hormuz has been blocked [03:51] and because air routes have been shut [03:52] down along with the threat of US [03:55] sanctions against countries and [03:56] companies that operate flights to Iran. [04:01] There is another more significant [04:02] reason. According to an analyst deeply [04:04] familiar with China, Beijing believes [04:05] that the US is determined to maintain [04:08] its economic pressure while the Iranian [04:10] leadership is not yet ready for a [04:12] compromise. The chances that the war [04:14] will end soon or that Iran will manage [04:16] to recover are slim. For China, the [04:19] economic and commercial implication is [04:21] an end, albeit a gradual one, to its [04:24] trading relationship with Iran, an end [04:26] to its trading relationship with Iran. [04:29] Beijing may nevertheless maintain at [04:31] least some diplomatic ties with Thran [04:33] and shield it from far-reaching measures [04:35] at the UN Security Council. In other [04:36] words, they're not going to completely [04:37] abandon them. They might give them some [04:39] diplomatic cover in the UN Security [04:41] Council if needed, but they are backing [04:43] away from their trade relationships with [04:44] them. Ladies and gentlemen, when we [04:47] talked about economic fury, when Scott [04:50] Bessant announced this economic warfare [04:52] again and how they're going to [04:54] completely isolate Iran, I said at the [04:56] time in multiple videos that the big [04:59] thing to watch for is will China play [05:02] ball? And the initial returns were that [05:04] China was not going to play ball. They [05:06] said we're they were defiant. We're not [05:07] going to we're not going to honor these [05:09] American sanctions. We're not going to [05:10] play ball with this. And it looks like [05:13] they might actually be playing ball with [05:15] it [05:17] out of necessity. [05:20] Let's take a look at this one. Arab [05:21] news. This is not exactly a Saudi state [05:24] media outlet, but it is owned by the by [05:26] a member of the royal family. Is China [05:28] learning to live without Iranian oil? [05:31] In the cat-and- mouse game of US naval [05:33] blockades and oil sanctions, small [05:35] fleefooted independent refineries in [05:37] China may be gifting Washington the [05:39] economic leverage over tan it's been [05:41] struggling to achieve. It's not that [05:43] China's so-called teapot refineries are [05:46] taking sides. Rather, it is pragmatic [05:49] economic self-interest that is [05:51] increasingly pushing the Chinese to [05:53] replace sanctioned Iranian crude oil [05:55] with supplies from Iraq and Qatar. In [05:57] other words, teapot refineries are these [05:59] independent refineries in China. [06:01] Independent refineries. There's nothing [06:02] really independent in China, but these [06:04] independent refineries are sort of off [06:05] the grid a little bit. And they use [06:10] crude oil that comes from sanctioned [06:13] oil. Oil from Russia, oil from Iran, oil [06:16] from well, Venezuela before the [06:18] Americans took it over. That was also [06:20] sanctioned oil. And because it's [06:21] sanctioned, it's tough to sell. And [06:23] therefore, they buy it at a discount. [06:24] And the Chinese depend on this [06:27] discountpriced oil that they've been [06:29] getting, this illegal oil they've been [06:31] getting, and it comes through these [06:32] shadow fleets, makes its way to the [06:34] teapot refineries, [06:36] but they don't have oil from Iran. [06:39] Citing three major oil trading houses, [06:41] Reuters on Tuesday reported that Chinese [06:44] refineries had closed deals for October [06:46] and November for up to 20 million [06:48] barrels of oil. This is from Iraq and [06:50] Qatar. The deals are good news for Iraq [06:53] in particular, which has been struggling [06:54] to export its oil, and bad news for [06:57] Iran, which is suffering under the US [07:00] blockade. For several years, roughly 90% [07:02] of Iranian oil exports went to China. [07:05] About 1.4 million barrels a day in 2025. [07:09] By September, the US blockade of Iranian [07:11] ports and shipping had slowed the flow [07:13] to about a third of that. And since [07:15] then, the tap has all but been turned [07:19] off. There's no more Iranian oil. [07:22] Evidence from ship tracking sources [07:24] suggests that no tanker carrying Iranian [07:26] crude oil has managed to get through the [07:28] blockade since July. [07:32] In addition to Iran, China gets its oil [07:35] from many sources, including Iraq before [07:37] the current war. China was already [07:40] Iraq's largest customer, [07:42] buying about 1.2 million barrels a day. [07:44] But the increased emphasis on Iraqi [07:46] supplies shines a light on the complex [07:49] and frequently murky world of China's [07:52] small private refineries which convert [07:54] crude oil into into products such as [07:58] diesel, petrol, jet fuel and marine fuel [08:00] but at very tight margins. They largely [08:03] operate on sanctioned cruds Russian [08:05] Iranian and pre- US intervention [08:08] Venezuelan. The Iranian crude has been [08:10] really key because the Iranians give [08:12] huge discounts to these buyers because [08:15] of the sanctions. But now that trade has [08:17] dried up and Iraq is offering its own [08:21] generous discounts. In other words, [08:22] Iraq's being smart. The Chinese want [08:24] cheap oil. They don't just want oil. [08:25] They want oil that's below market cost. [08:29] Iranian oil is a little too complicated. [08:30] Trump probably pressured she to stop [08:32] buying it anyway. It's difficult to come [08:34] by. They can't it can't get out. And the [08:37] Chinese are like, "We don't need to deal [08:38] with this hassle. We need but we need [08:41] cheap oil." So what is Iraq doing? Iraq [08:43] has lots of oil they're trying to sell. [08:45] Iraq is now selling their oil at a [08:46] discount, and it's not even sanctioned. [08:50] Trading houses have also purchased large [08:52] volumes of discounted Iraqi oil over the [08:55] past weeks, chartering ships and taking [08:57] advantage of US naval cover to get oil [09:00] through the Straight of Hormuz to the [09:01] Gulf of Oman, where it's transferred to [09:03] vessels of Chinese buyers. If the [09:06] benchmark price is 100 or 120 dollars [09:09] per bo per per barrel and you're getting [09:11] crude for 80 or 90 in terms of refinery [09:13] economics that's going to make a big big [09:15] difference. The US has been trying to [09:18] dismantle the Chinese Iranian oil trade [09:20] for years and since last year has been [09:23] sanctioning o Chinese oil terminals, [09:25] brokers, insurers and shipping service [09:28] providers. However, much of Iran's oil [09:30] has been going to the privately owned [09:32] teapot refineries, which makes them [09:35] which basically makes it harder to [09:36] track. So, the Americans have been [09:37] trying to get their get their arms [09:39] around this illegal network. We've [09:41] talked about the shadow fleets in the [09:42] past where the Iranians get their oil [09:44] out into these tankers that are that are [09:46] labeled as from other countries and then [09:48] they move the oil onto other ships and [09:50] they they they conceal it basically and [09:53] they get it to these tiny little [09:54] refineries, these off-the-g grid [09:56] refineries. [09:58] But now [10:01] this blockade of the US and probably [10:03] something Trump said to Xihinping has [10:05] just made it that the Chinese are like [10:07] this isn't worth the hassle anymore. [10:08] Recently the US has taken specific steps [10:12] to stop this. At the end of April, the [10:14] US Treasury's Office of Foreign Asset [10:16] Control alerted global financial [10:18] institutions to sanction to the [10:20] sanctions risk of dealing with [10:22] independent oil refineries in China. [10:24] Meaning the US started coming down hard [10:26] on people who deal with the teapot [10:27] refineries because they were dealing [10:29] with illegal oil. Iran is not China's [10:32] main source of oil. It accounted for 14% [10:35] of the total in 2025. But the Chinese [10:37] economy is utterly dependent on imported [10:40] crude. [10:43] There you go. [10:45] Now look at this piece. I found [10:47] absolutely fascinating. This is written [10:49] by Altaf Moti. This guy Alaf Moti [10:54] is a Pakistani journalist and columnist [10:56] and glo and geopolitical analyst and his [10:58] stuff's really good. The China factor in [11:01] the Iran war. [11:03] But look at the I'm just going to read [11:04] you one passage here, two two passages. [11:08] China occupies a special position in [11:10] Iran's wartime economy. It is Iran's [11:13] largest oil customer and has remained [11:15] one of Thran's most important economic [11:16] partners despite American sanctions. [11:20] Washington has responded by expanding [11:22] sanctions against Chinese companies, [11:24] traders, and logistics networks [11:27] connected to the Iranian oil and [11:29] sensitive technology. The United States [11:31] has also targeted China linked [11:33] procurement networks accused of helping [11:36] Iran obtain technology relevant to [11:39] nuclear research and missile [11:40] development. [11:43] Okay, so the Americans are cracking down [11:46] on Chinese companies. Again, I'm gonna [11:49] say it again. The Chinese talked all [11:50] tough about how they're not going to [11:52] comply with the US sanctions and they [11:54] are. And they are. [11:59] There is an important limit to the China [12:01] factor. This is a good piece of analysis [12:03] right here. [12:05] Beijing has not entered the war as an [12:07] Iranian military ally. China has [12:10] repeatedly called for negotiations, has [12:12] presented itself as a diplomatic actor. [12:15] Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi [12:16] recently told his Iranian counterpart [12:18] that Beijing was willing to safeguard [12:20] Iran's legitimate rights and interests [12:23] while simultaneously urging Thran and [12:25] Washington to remain restrained and [12:27] reopen negotiations. [12:30] This is the key. This is the most [12:31] important sentence in the whole piece [12:32] right here. China also has substantial [12:35] economic relationships with Saudi [12:38] Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and [12:40] other Gulf states. Those relationships [12:43] make an unlimited commitment to Iran [12:46] costly for Beijing. In other words, [12:49] the Chinese are looking at this going, [12:50] "Okay, we got the problems. We can't get [12:52] Iranian oil. They don't have money to [12:54] pay for their goods. Shipping stuff in [12:56] is causing us all kinds of problems with [12:58] the Americans." And also to top it off, [13:01] we have working relationships with the [13:02] Saudis, with the UAE, with the other [13:05] Gulf States that are not too happy with [13:07] Iran right now either. [13:09] This isn't worth it for China. uh Iran [13:12] is strategically valuable, but Iran is [13:14] not China's only route to energy [13:17] influence or regional access. The [13:19] relationship just isn't worth it for [13:21] them anymore. [13:23] Which leads us to this piece. Now, this [13:25] is from Iran Wire. Iran Wire is an is an [13:28] Iranian opposition media outlet. Okay? [13:31] It publishes in Persian and English, but [13:33] it's opposition, so it's anti-regime. [13:35] So, keep that in mind. How far will [13:38] China go for Iran? Beijing draws the [13:41] line on its strategic partnership. This [13:43] is from a couple days ago and it reports [13:46] on a a uh an interview done or a I'm [13:51] sorry, a political analyst speaking on [13:53] state media TV. [13:57] Okay, so this is Iranian state media. [13:59] When you have an analyst on Iranian [14:01] state media speaking, that is a [14:04] government mouthpiece. And look at this. [14:06] It's fascinating. Some Persian language [14:08] TV media. something I don't really have [14:10] access to. Medi Karatan, a political [14:13] analyst and advocate of Thran Beijing [14:16] relations, meaning this guy's in favor [14:17] of a strong he's he's he works for the [14:19] government, right? He's a government [14:20] mouthpiece. He's on state TV. He [14:24] recently revealed on Channel 3's Kabar [14:26] Network that China has halted its [14:29] transmission of satellite imagery to the [14:32] Islamic Republic. [14:34] You see, the Chinese were providing [14:38] intelligence information, satellite [14:40] intelligence to the Iranians to help [14:43] them target American [14:46] um American assets [14:49] to bomb them. Karachan explained that [14:51] the Iranian government had previously [14:53] used satellite intelligence provided by [14:55] China to target an American destroyer. [14:57] Confirming Karachan's remarks, the host [14:59] of the state TV program be vagran on [15:03] Iran time cited Beijing officials as [15:07] stating that Iran must first resolve its [15:09] conflict with the United States in the [15:12] post-war international landscape. Where [15:13] does China stand and how much of a cost [15:16] is Beijing willing to incur to preserve [15:18] its ties with the Islamic Republic? In [15:19] other words, the Chinese have basically [15:21] said, "We're not helping the Iranians [15:23] with intelligence anymore." Now, [15:28] this is Iranian state media. [15:32] This is Iranian state media. This is [15:34] someone on Iranian state media saying [15:38] China is no longer helping us with [15:40] intelligence information. [15:42] Why are they doing that? Why are they [15:44] saying that on TV? [15:46] Why are they putting that message out [15:48] there? What I believe is happening here [15:50] is that the Chinese looked at the [15:52] Iranians and said, "You got to stop [15:54] telling everyone that we're helping you. [15:57] It's causing us problems. You better get [15:59] someone on TV and say that we're not [16:01] helping you anymore." That's what I [16:03] think happened. During the broadcast, [16:04] Medi Karatan attributed China's retreat [16:07] to international media exposure [16:10] surrounding its intelligence cooperation [16:11] with the Islamic Republic, pointing [16:13] specifically to coverage by the Wall [16:15] Street Journal. According to his [16:17] account, once China's satellite support [16:20] to Tehran was leaked, Chinese [16:22] authorities terminated the sharing [16:24] mechanism. The significance of [16:26] Karachian's recent admissions lies in [16:28] the fact that an explicit acknowledgment [16:30] of China terminating cooperation came [16:33] directly from an analyst championing [16:35] Thran's alignment with Beijing on state [16:38] television. This signals that the [16:40] Iranian government can no longer rely on [16:43] sustained Chinese assistance in its [16:45] confrontation with the US regardless of [16:47] the cost of Beijing. Or it signals that [16:51] whatever assistance Beijing is going to [16:52] give them is going to have to be very [16:54] much on the down low. [16:56] China's distancing from Iran is equally [16:59] evident in energy markets. By curbing [17:01] its oil purchases, China blunted part of [17:05] the upward price pressure triggered by [17:07] disruptions in the straight of Hormuz, [17:09] an action that undermined Thrron's [17:11] efforts to leverage the waterway as an [17:13] economic bargaining chip. [17:17] Secretary G um in in an interview with [17:20] Echo Iran [17:22] Hussein Marashi, Secretary General of [17:24] the Executives of Construction Party [17:26] revealed that Beijing had made a planned [17:29] visit by Parliament Speaker Mo Galibah [17:32] to Beijing along uh along with any [17:36] expansion of bilateral ties contingent [17:39] upon four conditions. Okay. So the [17:40] speaker of the parliament, Galibbath, [17:42] wanted to go to Beijing for a for a [17:45] meeting, bilateral meeting, and Beijing [17:47] said, "You ain't showing up here. You're [17:50] not coming here for a for a meeting [17:51] until you do the following four things. [17:54] Reopen the Straight of Hormuz. Refrain [17:57] from levying transit fees on maritime [17:59] vessels. Resolve diplomatic rifts with [18:01] Saudi Arabia, and settle the conflicts [18:04] with the United States. In other words, [18:05] surrender. Give up everything you're [18:07] doing in the Straightup Hormuz. stop [18:09] trying to charge fees, stop bombing [18:10] everyone, solve things with the US and [18:13] settle and settle up with Saudi Arabia. [18:16] Basically, knock it off and capitulate, [18:20] declare defeat. That's what the Iran [18:21] that's what that's what the Chinese [18:23] basically told the Iranians. Two days [18:25] after Marashi's remarks were were [18:27] published, the Office of Iran's special [18:30] representative for China affairs issued [18:32] an official statement denying the claim, [18:34] reiterating China's opposition to [18:36] unilateral US sanctions and reaffirming [18:39] ongoing bilateral cooperation. [18:42] And we'll end off with this. For the [18:44] Islamic Republic, China is viewed as a [18:46] strategic partner in a conflict Thran [18:49] frames as reshaping the Middle Eastern [18:51] order. Conversely, Beijing's [18:54] requirements and conditions, while not [18:56] indicative of abandoning the Islamic [18:58] Republic, fall far short of forming an [19:01] eastern block against the West. In other [19:03] words, let's put this in simpler [19:04] English. Iran considers China an [19:07] important ally, but China does not [19:10] consider Iran an important ally. Medi [19:13] Karachan's revelations on state [19:14] television combined with China's market [19:16] maneuvering bring a fundamental question [19:19] into sharp focus. How much of a cost is [19:22] Beijing truly willing to incur to [19:25] maintain its relationship with the [19:26] Islamic Republic? I think this is one of [19:28] the most important strategic [19:30] developments, one of the most important [19:31] strategic questions that has come out of [19:34] this entire Iran war. It is huge because [19:38] the China Iran relationship was still [19:40] pretty airtight, still pretty [19:42] cooperative until just a couple of weeks [19:44] ago. [19:46] This, my friends, is a geopolitical [19:49] major change. Let's watch this closely [19:53] because if Iran has lost China, whoa, [19:57] that is huge. Okay, so we're going to [19:59] watch this very closely. Now, before I [20:01] let you go, before you go anywhere, [20:05] please make sure to not miss the Knesset [20:09] elections town hall event. We did this [20:11] event live in Jerusalem at the Manakim [20:14] Bean Heritage Center. We filled the [20:16] house. It was a it was a soldout event. [20:19] We had representatives of 10 Knesset [20:22] lists. 10 candidates who were on Knesset [20:25] lists in this election who were there. [20:27] They laid out their party platforms. [20:30] They answered tough questions. It was a [20:33] great event. Um, and if you want to [20:35] watch the full thing, just click the [20:37] link in the description of this video. [20:39] israel365.comtober [20:42] 4th October the number4th [20:44] and you'll get access to the full [20:47] Knesset elections town hall event that [20:49] took place in English in Jerusalem this [20:51] past Sunday. You don't want to miss [20:52] that. Thank you so much for watching. [20:54] Make sure you are subscribed to this [20:56] channel. Share it. Uh drop a comment. I [20:59] read the comments and God bless.
