Transcript [00:00] I want to talk to you about what's [00:01] happening in Iran. There is an oil [00:03] analyst now that tracks tankers for a [00:05] living. He posted five words this [00:07] weekend and I've been waiting seven [00:10] months to read these five words. Uh Iran [00:15] has lost control [00:19] of Hormuz. I guess it's I'm not good at [00:22] counting. Anyway, um Iran has lost the [00:26] strait. He's not alone. Kepler, one of [00:29] the firms that watches every ship on the [00:32] water, now estimates close to 13 million [00:34] barrels a day coming out of the Gulf. [00:37] That's far more than anybody else [00:38] expected. Okay, most remember they were [00:41] saying nothing is coming through the [00:42] Gulf. Most of it is moving dark. Transp [00:47] transponders are off. Uh shuttle runs, [00:50] oil pumped from one tanker to another in [00:52] open water, etc., etc. And the New York [00:55] Times is reporting that Iran's leaders [00:57] are worried their grip on the straight [00:59] is slipping. Can you even imagine what [01:03] it took for a New York Times writer to [01:06] write that sentence? [01:09] Can you imagine what the editor was like [01:11] his head in his hands going, "Oh, dear [01:13] God, no." [01:15] Writing that about a Donald Trump [01:17] policy. [01:18] Last week at the United Nations, Iran [01:20] sent an offer through Qatar. meet our [01:23] conditions and we'll reopen the straight [01:25] in seven days. Yeah. The president said, [01:28] "No, I don't think so." Why? Why would [01:31] he say that? We talked about it [01:32] yesterday. [01:34] A regime does not offer to sell you a [01:36] door until it feels the hinges are [01:39] going. [01:41] I've said from the beginning, and I'll [01:42] say it again, I don't know if this is [01:44] going to work. I don't know. Nobody [01:46] does. I want it to work. I hope it [01:50] works. It seems like a good strategy. [01:52] Most importantly, we need it to work. [01:56] But against all odds that most of the [01:58] experts in Washington quoted with a [02:00] straight face, this president may [02:02] actually be pulling off the impossible. [02:05] And that is very good news if it [02:07] happens. And the same analyst who said [02:10] Iran lost the straight listed the [02:12] caveats himself. First, the shuttle is [02:15] very expensive. Every barrel snuck out [02:17] in the dark and passed from one ship to [02:19] another ties up more tankers longer than [02:21] needed. Tanker rates are at record [02:24] highs. That cost does not disappear. [02:26] It's passed on to all of us. It shows up [02:28] at the refinery and then it shows up at [02:29] your pump. Second, crude and what you [02:32] put in your truck are not the same [02:34] thing. Russian refineries are on fire [02:36] because of another war. The Saudi [02:39] pipeline has been hit. China is running [02:41] its refineries very slowly. So even if [02:45] crude drops below $100, diesel and [02:47] gasoline can stay high. Don't let [02:49] anybody tell you the war is over because [02:52] of one number on, you know, a cable [02:53] channel went down. [02:56] Third, China is buying less oil than it [02:58] normally does. The day that comes back [03:01] to full presence, full appetite, there [03:05] still isn't enough oil moving and prices [03:07] will climb again. Fourth, the world has [03:09] burned through something like a billion [03:10] and a half to two billion barrels of [03:13] stored oil. All of that, our strategic [03:15] oil reserve is at a 40-year low. All of [03:18] it has to be refilled. Whoever refills [03:20] it pays whatever the price is that day. [03:23] Good news, we have the oil from [03:26] Venezuela and we're going to pay the [03:28] cost of pumping it. So, it's not going [03:30] to affect us on our strategic oil [03:32] reserve. Now, this is not the finish [03:34] line. [03:36] However, this might be the first day [03:38] we've actually been able to see a [03:40] legitimate finish line. [03:43] The the real danger isn't the price. In [03:46] June, we signed a memorandum on, you [03:48] know, in Islamabad. Iran agreed to let [03:51] chips through toll-free for 60 days [03:54] while we talked. By early July, they [03:56] were firing on tankers again. Why? Why? [03:59] Because they use that paper to catch [04:01] their breath. And that's what Donald [04:03] Trump has just they're winded. And while [04:06] while they're laying on the ground [04:07] going, "Somebody get my bomb. Somebody [04:09] somebody call my mom. Somebody call my [04:10] Bob." We know that's gonna if you let [04:13] them rest, if you're like, "Just relax. [04:16] Just relax. We're not going to hit you [04:17] again. We're not going to throw you off [04:18] the fence post." Then what happens? They [04:22] catch their breath. We want them on the [04:24] ground like we were when we were, you [04:26] know, six, seven years old. When we get [04:28] the breath knocked down, somebody call [04:29] my mom. Somebody call my mom. We want [04:31] that. [04:34] The analyst has a name for that kind of [04:36] deal. It's a memorandum of [04:38] understanding. We sign another one and [04:42] we don't get peace. We get a rerun of [04:44] the summer. We have been here before. [04:48] Not only in the summer, but if you go [04:50] back to 1858, a senator from South [04:52] Carolina stood up and told the North, [04:55] "It can never make war on the South [04:57] because the world couldn't live without [04:59] the southern cotton." And he put it [05:02] right there. Cotton is king. The mills [05:05] of England run on cotton from the south. [05:08] Cut it off. London will come and rescue [05:10] us. So when the war came, the south did [05:13] something almost nobody remembers. It [05:15] closed down its own straight. The [05:17] planters held their cotton off the docks [05:20] on purpose to starve the mills of [05:22] England until England came and broke the [05:24] blockade for them. Meanwhile, in [05:27] Washington, the general in charge of the [05:29] whole Union army was 74 years old and [05:32] couldn't couldn't climb onto a horse [05:34] anymore. And his plan was boring and [05:36] incompetent. Don't charge. [05:39] Just surround them. Close the ports. [05:41] Take the river. Squeeze them. [05:45] Was it incompetent? [05:47] The newspapers thought it was. They [05:49] thought it was a joke. A cartoonist drew [05:51] it a a giant snake wrapped around the [05:53] South and the press called it the [05:55] anaconda. It was an insult meant to be [05:58] one. The crowds wanted a march to [06:00] Richmond [06:02] though they got that and it ended in [06:04] bull run. [06:06] Early on the snake leaked fast little [06:09] ships slip through at night. Blockade [06:12] runners made fortunes. But the king [06:14] never checked the warehouses. England's, [06:17] you know, England was was stuffed from a [06:19] record crop the year before. And by the [06:22] time, you know, they ran low, British [06:24] merchants were buying cotton from India [06:26] and Egyptian cotton. The South held [06:31] they held the world's cotton hostage, [06:33] did they? Because the world went [06:35] shopping. [06:38] The rescue never came. And then the [06:40] snake everybody laughed at became the [06:43] backbone of the strategy that won the [06:45] war. [06:47] We still call it [06:49] by name what it was a put down. [06:53] That's Tran's problem. Iran has one [06:56] card. The world cannot live without our [06:59] straight. That's what they think. But [07:03] but leverage that [07:06] leverage only works by refusing to get [07:10] weaker every day you use it. Every [07:14] tanker slipping out in the dark is a [07:17] mill in England finding cotton in Egypt. [07:20] That's why the offer came last week, not [07:22] last spring. See, the anaconda only [07:26] works if you don't let go. The South's [07:29] last hope was never a battle. It was [07:33] that the North would get tired. That's [07:36] exactly what they're saying that we will [07:38] do. America will get tired. No. And [07:41] Anaconda squeezes and squeezes and [07:43] squeezes until you got to call somebody. [07:46] Call my mom. Somebody call my mom [07:49] and there's nothing left. [07:52] That's the prices and the papers and the [07:54] election that will would have worn [07:57] Lincoln down before the snake finished [07:59] its work. That's what they're counting [08:00] on today with the same thing. It nearly [08:04] did back then. In the summer of 1864, [08:07] Lincoln wrote himself a private note [08:09] that he said, "I'm probably going to [08:11] lose." [08:13] Tran is playing the same hand that we [08:15] played in the Civil War. Iran watchers [08:18] say the regime is convinced this [08:19] president only cares about gas prices in [08:21] the midterms. They're wrong. They're [08:24] wrong. They're wrong. Unfortunately, in [08:26] some ways, they're wrong. I think he's [08:28] going to lose the midterms, but he's [08:30] going to he's going to squeeze the crap [08:32] out of them. [08:35] because their whole strategy is based on [08:37] the calendar and he's saying I don't [08:38] care. [08:41] Serious people warned that maximum [08:43] pressure be uh breeds maximum resistance [08:46] that a cornered regime lashes out and [08:49] they're right about lashing out. We've [08:50] watched it all last month. We watched [08:53] them do it. But a regime that lashes out [08:54] on Monday and offers to reopen on Friday [08:58] is not winning. It's haggling. [09:03] Patience is not waiting. Patience is [09:07] refusing to trade tomorrow for the [09:10] relief of today. [09:12] I still don't know if this works. I've [09:14] told you from the very beginning. I [09:16] don't know if this is going to work. I I [09:18] told you from the very beginning. This [09:20] is why I'm not president of the United [09:21] States because I wouldn't have the [09:23] courage to do it. I wouldn't I think [09:26] it's right, but I wouldn't have the [09:28] courage to do it. But I know what [09:30] failure looks like because we watched it [09:33] this summer. A piece of paper, a [09:36] photograph, 60 days of relief, and a [09:38] regime that used every one of those days [09:42] to reload. [09:43] If Iran gets relief, [09:46] it comes after they do something that we [09:49] we can verify, not after a promise of [09:53] something we can't verify. [09:56] It'll cost us. You'll feel it at the [09:59] pump this winter and probably into the [10:02] spring. [10:03] If the people who watch the tankers are [10:05] right, the real turn comes early next [10:09] year, but only if the president holds. [10:14] Remember, the South didn't lose because [10:16] the snake was strong. It lost because [10:18] the man holding the snake didn't let go. [10:22] Mr. President, don't let go.
