Transcript [00:00] Dan, I've written so many political [00:02] eulogies of Netanyahu over the decades [00:05] that I've covered him and he's always [00:07] found a way to come back and you know [00:10] you know his father died at the age of [00:11] 102. He's only turning 77 next week. He [00:15] would try to be prime minister forever [00:17] and so I think they should try to pass [00:19] the indictment law and the term and [00:22] limit law and get him a pardon because [00:24] then you know he's out of the way and if [00:26] he's been the cause of the political [00:28] instability that made us have five [00:30] elections in 3 and 1/2 years and could [00:33] make us have five elections the next 3 [00:34] and 1/2 years, then that could really be [00:37] the key to stability. I think that's [00:39] actually the key to everything. [00:56] >> In the United States, if there's an [00:57] emergency, you're dealing with several [00:59] different systems. One organization runs [01:01] the ambulances, another handles disaster [01:03] relief, a third manages the blood [01:05] supply. [01:06] In Israel, it's one organization, Magen [01:09] David Adom. MDA is Israel's national [01:12] emergency services system. It's mandated [01:15] by the government, but it's not a [01:16] government agency, which means it runs [01:18] on philanthropy. Most of Israel's [01:20] ambulances were paid for by generous [01:23] donors from around the world. [music] [01:24] Something else worth knowing, MDA's [01:26] medics are Jewish, Muslim, Christian, [01:28] and Druze, serving Israel's entire [01:31] population regardless of religion, [01:32] nationality, or ethnic background. [01:34] [music] In a country that argues about [01:37] almost everything, that diversity is [01:39] sacred. You can support their important [01:41] work at afmda.org/callmeback [01:47] or follow the link in the episode [01:49] description. [01:50] >> [music] [01:52] >> Gil, welcome to Call Me Back. [01:54] >> Pleasure being with you, Dan. [01:56] >> So, Gil, if you look at Israeli media [01:59] and how the polls are presented, [02:02] we all see two scenarios. A [02:04] Netanyahu-led right-wing coalition on [02:06] one side and and an Eisenkot-led [02:08] coalition on the left side. [02:10] How do those scenarios map onto reality? [02:13] Or, put differently, what are the [02:14] circumstances that could make this [02:16] election different from how [02:18] the polling and the press coverage has [02:20] been framing up the likely scenarios? [02:24] >> Well, Dan, I don't know how fair it is [02:25] to say that Eisenkot is coming from the [02:27] left side. [02:28] Uh I saw Reuters refer to him as a [02:31] hawkish ex-general, which meant that [02:34] this is just an election between two [02:35] right-wing and even more two right-wing, [02:37] and therefore whoever we pick is is [02:39] illegitimate. Uh we haven't had a real [02:42] ideological election in Israel for many [02:44] years because we've been infected by the [02:47] same personality politics that has [02:49] infected America. [02:52] And so, now looking forward, uh what we [02:55] have is a competition of hatred and [02:57] animosity. [02:59] Uh there are Israelis who have animosity [03:01] toward Netanyahu. There are Israelis [03:04] that have animosity toward the Arab [03:06] population. And there are Israelis who [03:08] have animosity toward the ultra-Orthodox [03:11] for not serving in the army, uh which [03:13] has really heightened since October 7th [03:16] when we had such a shortage of uh people [03:19] available to serve and and too many [03:22] people serving hundreds of days in the [03:24] reserves. So, the animosity toward the [03:28] Arabs is the oldest. Uh with Netanyahu, [03:31] it's been going on for 30 years. And [03:34] with the ultra-Orthodox, well, it's been [03:35] there before, this election will [03:37] determine if it's heightened to the [03:40] point that it could change things around [03:41] here. [03:42] >> So, you know, this is obviously common [03:43] in US politics, and it is when you know, [03:46] when other leaders in the West have have [03:48] been in power for a long time, Margaret [03:50] Thatcher or very polarizing figures [03:53] in in the UK like Boris Johnson. The all [03:55] of politics during these periods [03:57] revolved around that one personality. [03:59] And what you're saying is [04:01] Israelis and the Israeli press tend to [04:03] tend to cover this election around this [04:05] one personality, Netanyahu, who's been [04:08] so dominant in Israeli politics. And and [04:10] every question is really about where do [04:12] you stand relative to to Netanyahu? [04:15] >> Absolutely. And then [04:17] we're going to find out if a government [04:18] can be formed after the election based [04:21] on [04:22] who is telling the truth. Right now, [04:24] right now there are so many politicians [04:26] who are saying they won't sit with [04:27] Netanyahu or they won't sit with [04:28] ultra-Orthodox or they won't sit with [04:31] Arabs. And if they're all telling the [04:33] truth, then we could be doomed to a [04:34] political stalemate. But there is a [04:37] rumor that it happens sometimes that [04:39] politicians lie. If they lie, that's [04:42] actually a good thing. Uh because that [04:44] means that we can avoid the stalemate. [04:46] The problem is that in Israel it's [04:48] harder for our politician to lie than it [04:50] is in America. Because in America, if [04:53] you have every 6 years an election for [04:56] senator, no one's going to remember who [04:58] didn't keep their promise. [05:00] But if you have elections every 5 [05:02] months, [05:03] you really can't get away with lying. [05:05] And uh that's a problem. [05:07] >> So, in asking you, what are the [05:08] circumstances that can make this [05:09] election different? What are those [05:11] circumstances? [05:12] >> Well, uh if you have politicians who are [05:16] actually willing to sit with Arabs in [05:19] one way or another [05:21] uh even after October 7th and allow a [05:23] minority coalition to be formed, which [05:25] is a rather common thing in Europe, uh [05:28] then that is what could deal a death [05:30] knell to Netanyahu, uh but it's [05:32] complicated. It's got a lot of moving [05:34] parts. And they uh they they all have to [05:36] work. [05:37] >> Okay, so I'm going to I want to want to [05:38] come back to that that scenario that you [05:40] just described. But to But let's just [05:41] start. I just want to make a level set [05:43] here for those who are not familiar with [05:44] how parliamentary elections work. How [05:47] would you describe what happens the [05:49] morning after the election? [05:51] >> The morning after the election, we're [05:52] going to have vote totals, but we're not [05:55] going to really know what they mean too [05:56] much. [05:57] The voter turnout is is very important. [06:00] The Jewish turnout has been consistent [06:02] at around 70%. The Arab turnout [06:05] fluctuates, [06:06] which could make a very big difference [06:08] in this election. And so only when the [06:10] results become official, we'll know how [06:12] many seats every party got. There'll be [06:15] a lot of complicated math going on. And [06:18] then they're all going to go to the [06:20] president, the representatives of all [06:21] the parties that crossed the 3.25% [06:24] electoral threshold, which is about [06:26] 170,000 votes. Any party that got less [06:29] than that, the votes get thrown away, [06:31] which makes it a big risk to vote for [06:33] such parties. And then [06:36] the president Isaac Herzog, who normally [06:38] has a ceremonial role, becomes powerful [06:41] for a short period of time. [06:43] Because [06:44] while the parties each recommend to him [06:46] who can form a government, and by [06:48] tradition, he asks the leader of the [06:50] largest party or the largest political [06:52] block, it's actually entirely at his [06:54] discretion, and he can ask any Knesset [06:57] member to form a government. [06:58] >> And and when you say [07:00] some votes get thrown away, can you just [07:02] because this is this is I do think [07:04] confusing for a lot of observers. So, [07:07] there's a threshold. It's it's meaning [07:09] you have to get 3.25% [07:13] of the overall vote [07:15] before your party can even make it into [07:18] the Knesset. And and then what you are [07:21] above that 3.25% determines how many [07:24] seats you actually get in the parliament [07:25] in the Knesset. But if you fall short of [07:27] three If you're at 3.24%, let's just [07:30] say, which depending on how many people [07:32] voted, could be 120, 140, 150,000 votes, [07:36] those votes, if you don't get that meet [07:38] the threshold, those votes get thrown [07:40] away. [07:41] >> And there's history that is the reason [07:44] for all that. Israel was founded by [07:46] immigrants that came from 100 different [07:48] countries, and in an effort to make them [07:50] empowered, we formed a parliament with [07:52] one of the lowest electoral thresholds [07:54] in the world. And gradually it's been [07:57] raised, but it's still a lot lower than [07:59] most countries in Europe. They form ad [08:02] hoc coalitions to to get above that [08:04] threshold, but that's what ends up [08:06] deciding elections in Israel. Because if [08:09] you've got two parties from your [08:11] political block that together throw away [08:13] 300,000 [08:15] votes, then it's a good way to lose. [08:18] >> Right. Okay, in the introduction, as I [08:20] said earlier, we established that there [08:22] are likely many different possible [08:25] outcomes, but I want to discuss with you [08:27] three possible scenarios that are not [08:30] broadly discussed. So, let's turn to [08:32] scenario one. [08:34] Eizenkot's one-month government. Let's [08:36] imagine Herzog gives Eizenkot the [08:38] mandate to form a government, but he [08:40] can't reach 61 seats without including [08:43] the Arab parties, which, according to [08:46] polling, you know, the Arab parties [08:48] could represent anywhere from, you know, [08:49] something like 10 to 15 seats. So, 10 to [08:51] 15 seats out of 120 [08:53] seat parliament, in in normal [08:55] circumstances, could [08:57] give a block the number of seats [09:00] necessary over over 61 plus to form a [09:02] government, but there's a scenario where [09:04] Eizenkot [09:06] can form a government, but not with the [09:08] Arab parties. So, could Bennett and [09:11] Lieberman, who are the heads of two [09:13] other parties, two smaller parties, [09:14] they're part of the opposition, quietly [09:16] agree to a minority government backed by [09:20] Ra'am, which is one of the Arab parties, [09:22] and what would the purpose of such a [09:24] scenario be? [09:25] >> Exactly. So, they've both said that they [09:28] won't join a government that has an Arab [09:31] party in it. [09:32] >> Bennett and Lieberman have both said [09:33] have both said that. [09:35] >> Yes, because after October 7th, that [09:36] that's not as legitimate as it used to [09:39] be. [09:40] Nor would they join a government that [09:42] relies on Arab support from outside. And [09:45] Lieberman has said he wouldn't even rely [09:48] on a minority government temporarily [09:51] abstaining. [09:52] >> And just just so people understand what [09:54] that what that that that model would [09:56] serve what you're describing like there [09:58] is if it takes 61 seats in a 126 [10:01] seat Knesset to form a government, if [10:04] the Arab votes, again, assuming it's 10 [10:07] to 15 seats, somewhere in that range [10:08] depending on on which poll you're [10:10] following, if they just say we're going [10:12] to abstain, so that then brings the [10:15] total number of seats that is voting on [10:18] a new a new government down by 10 to 15 [10:21] seats, which means you can form a [10:23] government without hitting 61 as long as [10:25] you're the largest block, and that that [10:27] is what's referred to as a minority [10:29] government. [10:29] >> So, the president is going to give [10:33] either Netanyahu or Eisenkot first [10:35] chance to form a government. And [10:36] meanwhile, the Knesset will be meeting. [10:39] And so even before Eisenkot would form a [10:41] government, if he gets that first [10:43] mandate, he could already start trying [10:45] to pass laws. [10:47] And so if he would then try to pass [10:50] three laws that his block cares about [10:52] the most, one is drafting Yeshiva [10:54] students, [10:56] one is forming a commission of inquiry [10:59] to look into what went wrong on October [11:00] 7th, and the other is one of the [11:03] anti-Netanyahu laws that are out there. [11:06] Either term limits [11:08] or legally preventing anyone under [11:11] indictment from running. [11:13] If you pass one of those, [11:16] then [11:17] Netanyahu gets out of the picture, and [11:20] then suddenly the Likud could join a [11:22] government together with Eisenkot, in [11:26] which Eisenkot would be prime minister [11:27] first, and the new leader of Likud, [11:30] whoever would be elected, would be Prime [11:33] Minister seconds. And that is actually [11:36] what the people of Israel want. A [11:37] majority say that in the event of a [11:40] political stalemate, that they want a [11:42] unity government. [11:43] >> The three votes that you just described, [11:44] or the three sets of votes, would that [11:46] be by the new members of Knesset even [11:48] though a government has not been formed? [11:50] >> Right. The Knesset already starts [11:52] meeting before a government is formed. [11:56] It's important for the block that wins [11:57] to replace the Knesset speaker [11:59] immediately because that can that is [12:01] control of the parliament, [12:04] and that's before you have a Prime [12:05] Minister. [12:07] And then the president can get involved [12:09] more. [12:10] >> I see. Okay. And what about the scenario [12:13] in which President Herzog offers [12:15] Netanyahu a pardon [12:17] in exchange for retiring from politics? [12:18] Could that open a door to a version [12:20] another path to a grand coalition [12:23] between an Eisenkot and a post-Netanyahu [12:25] Likud? [12:27] >> Dan, I think it's actually the key to [12:29] everything. [12:30] Because it's I've written so many [12:33] political eulogies of Netanyahu over the [12:36] decades that I've covered him, and he's [12:39] always found a way to come back. And you [12:42] know, you know his father died at the [12:43] age of 102. He's only turning 77 next [12:46] week. [12:47] He he would try to be Prime Minister [12:49] forever. And so I think they should try [12:52] to pass the indictment law and the term [12:55] and limit law and get him a pardon. [12:57] Because then you know he's out of the [12:59] way. And if he's been the cause of the [13:01] political instability that made us have [13:03] five elections in three and a half [13:04] years, and could make us have five [13:06] elections the next three and a half [13:08] years, then that could really be the key [13:10] to stability. [13:11] >> And do you think Netanyahu would accept [13:13] that? [13:14] >> Of course not. [13:15] Except [13:16] I don't know. The pardon is what is the [13:18] icing on the cake. You know, this trial [13:20] has been going on for a very long time. [13:23] And if the term limit bill passed [13:24] anyway, so he doesn't have a choice, [13:26] then it helps him go out gracefully. [13:29] >> Gil, why why don't we hear more about a [13:31] version of or versions of the scenario [13:34] this scenario here you're describing? [13:36] >> Because anyone in Likud who had the [13:39] audacity to challenge the leader of the [13:42] party over the last few decades has [13:45] suffered the political consequences, and [13:48] they've learned not to make that mistake [13:49] again. [13:50] >> Within the right, they've been [13:51] airbrushed from the right out of [13:53] airbrushed from from any future [13:55] prospects on the right. [13:56] >> Look at how many political parties have [13:58] been formed in Israel's history just [14:00] because of personality differences with [14:02] Netanyahu. So, it's a kiss of death [14:04] inside Likud to bring up the possibility [14:09] that he won't be around forever. [14:11] >> And what about with outside the right [14:13] though, Gil? What about just broader [14:15] society, those supporting the opposition [14:17] block? You just don't hear people talk I [14:19] was just in Israel a week ago, and I was [14:21] spending a lot of time with people on, [14:23] you know, voting all in different [14:24] directions. Those oppositional to [14:26] Netanyahu, I never hear them talk about [14:28] this. Is it because it's uncomfortable [14:29] to talk about? They don't want to feel [14:32] like they're countenancing a [14:34] a deal, [14:35] a get out of jail free card, literally, [14:38] the way they would see it [14:39] for Netanyahu? [14:41] >> Netanyahu has persuaded with his great [14:45] persuasive abilities [14:47] on one side or brainwashed, if you're on [14:49] the other side, Israelis to believe that [14:51] he and only he can make them feel safe. [14:54] And now there's a chance that Gadi [14:57] Eisenkot, because he's Moroccan, because [14:59] he appeals to Likud voters that also [15:04] come from North African and Middle [15:05] Eastern countries, that maybe this is [15:07] the time to change it. Right now today [15:10] in Israel, people are talking about a [15:12] controversial remark by a journalist [15:15] very close to Netanyahu who referred to [15:17] Eisenkot [15:18] as a monkey [15:20] Uh, [15:21] by Ashkenazim, [15:23] uh, [15:23] and there's a big backlash, just like [15:26] there was a backlash in 1981, [15:28] uh, when the Labor Party had a comedian [15:32] make fun of, uh, the, uh, North African [15:34] and Middle Eastern immigrants and called [15:36] them a bad name. [15:38] >> This television personality, just to be [15:39] clear, referred to Eisenkot as a [15:41] Moroccan monkey. That was it. So, it's [15:43] like the the the rap is that it's [15:44] playing on the his Sephardic background. [15:48] Um, and it's, you know, racist, [15:50] discriminatory, how however you want to [15:51] characterize it. That that's that's well [15:53] that's why it's become so controversial. [15:56] >> And and this is something that Eisenkot [15:57] could take advantage of, the same way [16:00] that Menachem Begin took advantage of it [16:02] to win the election in 1981. [16:04] >> But why aren't people on the left [16:06] talking about a deal for Netanyahu? [16:08] That's what I'm trying to get. Is the [16:09] reason that they so, um, the vitriol [16:12] towards Netanyahu is so deep and so [16:14] intense that they can't even they don't [16:16] even want to talk about a deal for [16:18] Netanyahu? That that's what I'm trying [16:20] to get at here. It's like why why aren't [16:21] we hearing about this from them, from [16:23] the opposition? Even just generally from [16:26] voters, opposition voters in in broader [16:28] society. Is it that they would be [16:29] opposed to it or they just don't want to [16:32] talk about it right now? [16:33] >> The goal is to woo voters from the [16:35] Netanyahu camp to the anti-Netanyahu [16:37] camp. And in order to do that, you have [16:40] to be careful and not attack him too [16:42] harshly. [16:44] Um, and so that they're they're really [16:46] being sensitive in how they do it. But [16:47] Gadi Eisenkot was interviewed last night [16:49] on one of the television stations here [16:51] and he said he will not form a [16:53] government together with Netanyahu, no [16:54] matter what. [16:56] >> Okay, let's go to scenario number two, [16:58] which is the war changes everything [17:00] scenario. A war with Iran or the Houthis [17:02] or in the West Bank, yeah, escalates [17:05] further. [17:06] >> [clears throat] [17:06] >> Pyre apps breaks out shortly after the [17:08] election. [17:09] Could a new national security emergency [17:11] give Netanyahu the opportunity to [17:13] recruit Bennett, Eisenkot or individuals [17:16] from from their parties. [17:18] >> Okay, so we've talked about the impact [17:20] that the president can have. [17:22] But maybe it's not the president of [17:23] Israel. Maybe it's the president of the [17:26] United States that's going to decide our [17:28] election. Ehud Barak when he defeated [17:30] Netanyahu in 1999 purposely used the [17:34] same campaign strategist who worked for [17:36] Bill Clinton with his blessing. And [17:38] there had been talk that maybe there'd [17:39] been endorsement by Donald Trump of [17:41] Netanyahu in this race. But maybe he [17:44] didn't need the endorsement ahead of the [17:46] election. Maybe he needs it afterward. [17:49] He's been talking about going to war [17:51] with the Iran again [17:53] after the midterms in the United States [17:55] which are a week after our election. [17:57] That could be the time when if Netanyahu [18:00] gets a couple more seats than than [18:02] Eisenkot's block, then Netanyahu's given [18:06] the mandate by President Herzog. And if [18:08] during that time the war with Iran [18:10] starts, then maybe someone inside uh [18:14] Gadi Eisenkot's block, maybe only part [18:17] of Eisenkot's party, part of Bennett or [18:20] or Lieberman's party, they decide to [18:23] join together with Netanyahu temporarily [18:26] due to the war. Let's not forget after [18:27] October 7th, Benny Gantz and Gadi [18:30] Eisenkot, they brought their party into [18:32] the coalition even though they said they [18:34] wouldn't. [18:35] >> Even though they had said they wouldn't [18:37] when when running against Netanyahu a [18:39] little over a year before, they then [18:40] joined. They said it was a national [18:42] emergency and they joined the [18:43] government, they joined the war council. [18:45] >> Yes, uh that we had our our election in [18:48] November 1st and uh the [18:51] war broke out on October 7th and 4 days [18:53] later they were there inside the [18:55] governing coalition and they stayed [18:58] there for several months. [19:00] >> Yeah, and they strengthened, they [19:01] bolstered, they bolstered Netanyahu's uh [19:03] that his coalition. They they they they [19:05] expanded it. [19:06] >> War makes people break promises. [19:09] >> We'll We'll back. [19:12] I want to tell you about the [19:13] organization sponsoring this episode, [19:15] Magan David Adom, Israel's national [19:18] emergency services system, [music] which [19:20] runs Israel's entire national blood [19:22] supply. Years ago, they realized that a [19:25] national service needs a central [19:27] infrastructure, and Israel's blood [19:29] supply must be kept [music] safe no [19:30] matter what. So, they built an [19:32] underground facility. The Marcus [19:34] National Blood Services Center in Ramla [19:36] was designed to keep working through [19:38] missile, chemical, and biological [19:40] attacks and through natural disasters. [19:42] >> [music] [19:43] >> It was completed before October 7th, at [19:46] a time when three stories underground [19:48] struck a lot of people as more than [19:50] anyone would ever need. [19:52] Nobody knew what was coming. MDA built [19:54] it anyway. During the war with Iran, MDA [19:57] moved its entire command and dispatch [19:59] operation underground. Every ambulance [20:02] in the country was being directed from [20:03] inside a facility somebody decided to [20:06] build years earlier. That decision was [20:09] made possible by donors. Help fund [20:11] emergency response at [20:13] afmda.org/callmeback. [20:20] And we're back with Israeli political [20:22] analyst Gil Hoffman. [20:24] Okay, let's go to let's go to scenario [20:26] three, [20:27] which is perhaps the most surprising [20:29] scenario, which is Avigdor Lieberman, [20:32] who I'm just telling you, Gil, I have [20:34] I've had a lot of conversations with [20:36] people over here in the West about the [20:38] Israeli elections, and I keep telling [20:40] people keep an eye on Avigdor Lieberman. [20:43] People have no idea what I'm talking [20:44] about. Most people don't even know who [20:46] he is. He's I've never seen a figure [20:49] less known or less understood [20:52] who who has such an inverse correlation [20:55] between what people know about him and [20:57] his likelihood or possibility or [20:59] potential to become prime minister. So, [21:01] there is a scenario where Avigdor [21:02] Lieberman with Ofer [21:04] uh with Ofer Winter's support, which is [21:06] a a he leads another small party. First [21:09] of all, briefly, who's Avigdor [21:10] Lieberman? [21:12] >> Avigdor Lieberman was the director [21:13] general of the Prime Minister's office, [21:14] meaning Netanyahu's top aide, when he [21:17] was the Prime Minister the first time [21:18] back in the '90s. [21:19] >> Keep in mind for our listeners, [21:21] Lieberman had established himself as one [21:22] of the political voices representing the [21:25] wave of Russian and former Soviet Union [21:28] immigrants that had come into Israel in [21:30] the 1990s. Israel's population expanded [21:34] after the fall of the Soviet Union, [21:35] about a fifth of Israel's population, [21:38] Israel's population increased by about a [21:39] fifth because of this wave, and so they [21:42] became a major force in Israeli [21:43] politics. And Avigdor Lieberman, who had [21:45] been the equivalent of like the chief of [21:46] staff to Prime Minister Netanyahu from [21:49] '96 to '99, leaves the Likud, leaves [21:52] Netanyahu, forms his own party, and the [21:55] he's considered very right-wing on [21:58] security issues and on Palestinian [22:00] issues, very hostile to the Haredim, to [22:03] the ultra-Orthodox, and their demands [22:06] that they have an exemption to serve in [22:07] the military. And even though he's so [22:09] right-wing, he's been part of the [22:11] opposition block. He previously had been [22:13] part of the right-wing block in previous [22:15] elections, and beginning with the 2021 [22:19] government, the Lapid-Bennett [22:22] government, Lieberman had moved firmly [22:24] into the opposition. Even though he's of [22:26] the right, he served in that government, [22:28] that government led by Lieberman and by [22:30] Bennett and Lapid. He's now considered [22:33] part of the opposition again, [22:36] but he could become Prime Minister, even [22:38] though he's polling at what, six, seven, [22:41] eight seats? I mean, he's not going to [22:43] win a lot of seats. [22:44] >> So, but he's been foreign minister, [22:46] finance minister, and defense minister. [22:48] He he has the qualifications to be Prime [22:50] Minister. And you have to remember, two [22:52] terms ago, the reason why Naftali [22:54] Bennett became the Prime Minister when [22:57] there were parties in his block that had [22:58] a lot more seats, was because he played [23:01] the game smartly. He wasn't in a the [23:03] pro-Netanyahu block or the [23:05] anti-Netanyahu block. So, to get him to [23:07] get over to the anti-Netanyahu side, [23:10] they let him have the biggest job. And [23:13] over here, we we talked about how this [23:15] is a competition of animosity [23:18] between hatred of Netanyahu, hatred of [23:20] Arabs, and hatred of the ultra-Orthodox. [23:23] Well, Lieberman's animosity toward all [23:25] three is the strongest. So, his price is [23:28] the highest. So, it might make sense for [23:31] him to be prime minister, and he is the [23:35] has the greatest chance of wooing [23:37] parties from the Netanyahu block in [23:40] order to join a governing coalition that [23:42] would oust Netanyahu rather than [23:45] Eisenkot even if he'd get a lot less [23:47] seats than Eisenkot would. [23:49] >> And there's another one of these parties [23:51] that is considered very hawkish that has [23:54] just emerged in recent weeks. This Ofer [23:56] Winter, who's a former senior officer in [23:58] the IDF, also considered very hawkish on [24:01] security matters, and you are saying he [24:04] could join with Lieberman to help [24:05] Lieberman [24:06] become prime minister. Uh why [snorts] [24:09] might Winter accept Lieberman where he [24:11] couldn't accept Eisenkot or Bennett as [24:14] prime minister? [24:15] >> So, Winter's party is complicated. It's [24:18] actually the most hypocritical party [24:20] I've ever seen in in all my years [24:21] covering politics because on the one [24:23] hand, uh they say that they want a [24:27] commission of inquiry into October 7th, [24:29] and they want to draft yeshiva students, [24:31] and they want to improve Israel's image. [24:33] Those are their big three issues. But on [24:35] the other hand, they say they want [24:37] Netanyahu and his block to continue in [24:39] office. Well, how are you going to form [24:41] a commission of inquiry with Netanyahu [24:42] there? He's blocked every attempt to do [24:45] that. How are you going to draft [24:46] ultra-Orthodox with the ultra-Orthodox [24:48] in the government? It's pretty hard. How [24:50] are you going to improve Israel's image [24:51] with Ben-Gvir? Danny, you know better [24:53] than me that that's a a problem. Uh so, [24:56] uh [24:57] but perhaps they'd get over the [24:59] Netanyahu thing and get to do the other [25:00] three if Lieberman would be the one who [25:03] forms the government with the [25:04] anti-Netanyahu block. [25:06] >> So, [25:07] Winter has as you laid out, he's [25:09] promised a tougher approach to drafting [25:11] the Yeshiva students and he's in a [25:12] tougher approach to, um, [25:14] a state inquiry into October 7th. So, [25:18] that would be the basis upon which he [25:20] could rationalize joining the [25:21] opposition. [25:23] >> Well, no matter what happens after the [25:24] election, he's going to have to break a [25:25] campaign promise one way or another, [25:28] or maybe break three. So, [25:31] there's another party also, you the [25:33] party of the reservists, that's also on [25:36] the right, that said that they would [25:38] only join a coalition that had a [25:39] majority of Zionists where they're not [25:41] counting the ultra-Orthodox at all in [25:43] the count so that that puts them in the [25:45] anti-Netanyahu block without officially [25:47] saying it. They, because they're [25:49] right-wing, would also prefer to have [25:51] Lieberman and not Eisenkot form the [25:53] government. [25:54] >> And you're talking with that party, this [25:56] is the Hendo party, you're talking about [25:57] four to five seats, according to polling [26:00] again, 45 seats, so tiny number, barely [26:02] above the threshold, assuming they get [26:03] above the threshold, and you're saying [26:05] they could become the kingmaker here. [26:07] >> Absolutely, and as so you could see a [26:09] Naftali Bennett, who I'm sure is [26:10] familiar to your audience, she's number [26:12] three on the list of, uh, the reservists [26:15] list. [26:16] >> And do you again, this idea of a party [26:20] that has won seven or eight seats in the [26:23] case of uh, Lieberman if he if he if [26:25] that's where he was or nine, whatever it [26:26] may be, the idea of a a leader of a [26:28] party with so few seats becoming prime [26:30] minister before Naftali Bennett became [26:33] prime minister with I think seven seats [26:35] in the 20 to 2020 to 2021 government, [26:39] that period, that election period, [26:41] before Bennett [26:43] would became prime minister with so few [26:44] seats, that was unheard of. You either [26:46] had to be the leader of Likud or the [26:48] leader of the the then the broad [26:50] center-left party, which was Labor, but [26:52] the idea of a small party becoming prime [26:55] minister was just unheard of. Bennett [26:57] broke that. That, one could argue, was [27:00] an outlier and never to be repeated [27:02] again, or it was precedent-setting, and [27:04] it is the new normal in terms of being a [27:06] factor in future elections, which would [27:08] pave the way for Lieberman. [27:10] >> And there's a reason why in the [27:12] anti-Netanyahu bloc, they're not saying [27:14] who their candidate is for prime [27:16] minister, because there are plenty of [27:18] people who prefer Bennett or who prefer [27:19] Lieberman over Eizenkot, and if they [27:22] would say that Eizenkot is the [27:25] candidate, even though Eizenkot built a [27:27] list that has on it many candidates that [27:29] are right-wing and religious-Zionist, [27:32] they would lose votes to the [27:33] pro-Netanyahu bloc, and Netanyahu would [27:35] have an easier time forming a [27:37] government. [27:37] >> So, this is a very interesting point. I [27:39] would say perhaps the most important [27:41] point for folks over here in the [27:43] diaspora to pay attention to is I am [27:46] constantly hearing from people in the [27:47] diaspora who want the current government [27:50] to disappear. They want the opposition [27:52] government to win for a variety of [27:54] reasons, and they are very frustrated [27:56] with the opposition because they won't [27:58] unify behind one leader, and they think [28:01] it makes the opposition look weak, that [28:03] they're all still angling and elbowing [28:05] each other, even though they're saying [28:07] we're the opposition, they won't settle [28:08] on who the leader of the opposition is, [28:10] and and I I just constantly hear this [28:12] complaint here in the diaspora. They [28:14] don't And And this point you're making [28:16] is which is what the opposition needs to [28:18] do is they need to peel right-wing [28:21] voters to the opposition. And if there [28:23] are right-wing voters who are [28:25] comfortable with the possibility of say [28:27] Lieberman being prime minister, they [28:29] could then vote for the Lieberman party, [28:31] Israel Beitenu, they could vote, which [28:33] is his party, they could vote for [28:36] loosely defined the opposition bloc [28:38] because they say, "Oh, Lieberman's my [28:40] guy. He could be prime minister. I'm [28:41] voting for him." But if Lieberman said, [28:43] "Cuz he's a right-wing guy, and I'm a [28:45] right-wing voter, and I'm comfortable [28:46] voting for him, so they would so they [28:48] would calculate or rationalize. But if [28:50] they're being told, you can vote for [28:52] Lieberman, but the opposition [28:54] government, the new government is not [28:56] going to be led by Lieberman, they may [28:57] say, "Whoa, I'm not going to vote for [29:00] the opposition. I'm going back to voting [29:02] for one of the parties that will serve [29:04] with Netanyahu." That That is why [29:06] they're uncomfortable declaring who the [29:08] leader of the opposition is. [29:09] >> Absolutely, and that's why Netanyahu's [29:12] campaign slogan uh of uh it's either the [29:16] right or Palestine, uh which rhymes in [29:19] Hebrew, um is uh something we negated by [29:23] there being parties on the right that [29:25] are anti-Netanyahu [29:27] uh that people could feel comfortable [29:29] voting with. And there's that could end [29:31] up being what decides an election that [29:33] could be our closest since 1996, the [29:36] first one in which Netanyahu ran. [29:38] >> So, Gil, in wrapping things up, we just [29:40] went through three scenarios that have [29:42] not been discussed in the mainstream [29:44] media. Again, the the the minority [29:47] government, which is some version of [29:49] like an Eisenkot one-month government, [29:52] minority government, the Netanyahu deal [29:55] kind of uh [29:56] uh [29:57] Herzog-orchestrated deal um government [30:00] that puts Eisenkot at top a a [30:04] perhaps short-term or weak minority [30:06] government. Second scenario is there's [30:08] war and parties start shifting around [30:11] and and agreeing to go serve with [30:13] Netanyahu. Scenario three is Avigdor [30:15] Lieberman becomes prime minister. Again, [30:18] we're not saying these are the most [30:19] likely scenarios. We've just here at [30:21] Call Me Back, we've been in our in our [30:23] Israel Votes team have been focusing on [30:25] these three scenarios because they're [30:26] just not getting as much attention as [30:28] some other scenarios. So, of those [30:30] three, Gil, I put it to you, which do [30:31] you find most plausible? [30:33] >> Well, I've got to be careful because my [30:35] neighbor who's might be listening next [30:36] door is number 10 on Lieberman's list. [30:38] Uh but uh it a small country here in [30:41] Israel, but I think that the number one [30:44] scenario is becoming increasingly likely [30:46] that there will be an effort by the [30:49] anti-Netanyahu bloc to be more creative. [30:52] That they believe that Netanyahu has [30:53] harmed Israel's image [30:55] irrevocably since October 7th and his [30:58] mistakes [30:59] from October 7th have to be punished. [31:02] And so they're going to find a way even [31:04] if it means that they're breaking [31:06] campaign promises that they're saying [31:08] over and over again today. [31:11] And then there'll be a different [31:13] government that makes more of an effort [31:15] to fight the narrative war [31:19] that I wrote about in my book and that [31:23] is the concern of Jews who are there in [31:26] New York and the rest of America [31:28] suffering from the anti-Semitism that's [31:30] been spiraling out of control. [31:31] >> Gil, for those who may not follow [31:33] Israeli politics, the nitty-gritty, the [31:36] details with you know the granularity [31:38] that you and I do, what do you think [31:41] this election [31:43] in 10 days [31:45] says, given the structure, the dynamic, [31:47] the personalities, the shifting [31:49] alliances, the themes of the election, [31:51] take this however you want. What is this [31:53] Every election in Israel, like many [31:55] elections in democracies, tell you [31:56] something about more broadly what's [31:58] going on in that country and that [31:59] society. Given what we're talking about [32:02] it, what does it say about what's going [32:03] on in the state of Israel today? [32:05] >> Well, [32:06] there's a very big question here. Are we [32:09] Netanyahu? [32:10] Are Americans Donald Trump? Nobody would [32:12] think so abroad. Nobody would paint all [32:15] of America with that brush. But in [32:17] Israel, that's been happening. [32:20] That people see our country in the image [32:23] of the way that they see our [32:24] longest-serving prime minister. And so [32:27] that there's this question that would be [32:29] answered after Netanyahu would be [32:31] ousted. Can we paint ourselves a a [32:34] different way and say that everything [32:36] that the world didn't like that [32:38] Netanyahu did that and everything the [32:40] world did like about Israel, Israel did [32:42] that. [32:43] And reshape our image entirely. That's [32:47] something that could end up happening [32:48] from this election and [32:50] or it could fail. Anything can happen. [32:53] >> Okay, Gil. We will leave it there. [32:56] The We know we we could do hours on [32:57] every one of these scenarios, but I I [32:59] just wanted to do a kind of crash course [33:02] for our listeners and you definitely [33:04] provided it. So, thank you for for being [33:06] with us. [33:07] >> Pleasure being here on Call Me Back. [33:08] >> [music] [33:17] >> One thing about Magen David Adom, the [33:19] sponsor of this episode, MDA has roughly [33:22] 39,000 personnel. About 90% of them are [33:26] volunteers. More than 30,000 Israelis [33:29] who respond to emergency calls and are [33:31] paid nothing for it. I keep thinking [33:33] about what that means for a donor. These [33:35] are people who are not asking anyone for [33:37] money. They're asking to be trained, to [33:39] be equipped, to be sent. So, the staff [33:42] is already taken care of. What they need [33:44] is somebody to fund that training, gear, [33:47] and ambulance. 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