Transcript [00:02] Hello and good evening from Israel for a [00:05] another Israel insider with me Ashley [00:08] Perry advisor to this from Israel's [00:11] office here in Israel and around the [00:13] Jewish world it is the festival of [00:15] Sukkot we're in the intermediate days um [00:18] and you know one would think they'd be [00:21] relatively quiet because most Israelis [00:24] are on vacation on holiday um and you [00:28] can see that the streets are packed. The [00:31] um the various uh tourism sites or [00:34] camping sites or amusement parks etc etc [00:39] um are full at the moment. Uh people [00:42] aren't really thinking so much about [00:44] politics. Um but that doesn't mean it's [00:47] uh you know politics doesn't reach them. [00:50] Um obviously uh tonight or today we're [00:54] hearing about the almost absolutely [00:57] horrendous event uh that took place on a [01:00] fly Dubai flight from uh Dubai to [01:04] Israel. These flights uh take place [01:06] multiple times a day and have done since [01:09] normalization between Israel and the [01:12] UAE. Um it's a well-known route packed [01:16] full of Israelis especially as I said um [01:19] during the vacation period I was at the [01:21] airport over the last couple of uh days [01:24] and it's absolutely packed Israelis [01:26] coming and going and uh Dubai and Abu [01:29] Dhabi are very well frequented uh [01:33] destinations also sometimes they their [01:35] transit points onto other places um so [01:38] far you know all these flights have gone [01:40] off pretty much without incident But [01:43] today obviously is that major exception. [01:46] Uh for those who don't know and all the [01:49] details are not 100% clear, but from [01:52] what we know um well it seems like one [01:56] of the pl uh pilots obviously in every [01:58] flight there's uh two uh pilots. One of [02:02] the pilots ani uh citizen uh at one [02:06] point drew a dagger or an axe. We're not [02:09] 100% uh clear. It seems like it was [02:11] probably a dagger on his co-pilot who [02:14] was an Indian national um I guess to try [02:18] and subdue him to kill him so he could [02:21] then take sole control over the cockpit [02:24] and it's unclear exactly what he [02:26] intended to do. some uh suggested and [02:29] again we we might never know or maybe [02:31] that we will get some clues in the [02:33] coming days. Um either crash it with all [02:36] the I think it was 124 mostly Israelis [02:40] into the the desert of uh Saudi Arabia, [02:43] maybe Jordan, or maybe fly into Israel [02:46] for for a 9 uh 11 type attack on a major [02:51] Israeli um site, building, etc. We don't [02:55] know. What seemed to happen is in the [02:57] ensuing struggle the Indian co-pilot [03:01] managed to open the door and as we know [03:04] uh the the cockpit door as we know [03:06] since 911 uh cockpit doors are sealed uh [03:10] from the inside. No one from the outside [03:12] can get uh to it. So it would only be [03:15] able to be open from someone in the [03:17] inside. So it had appeared that the [03:19] Indian um who obviously is is now being [03:23] lorded as a hero was able to open it. He [03:25] was very badly wounded, but it gave [03:29] enough time for some of the passengers [03:31] uh to be be able to attack the pilot [03:35] that caused the incident. um eventually [03:38] subdue him uh overcome him and [03:42] apparently there were two uh uh Fly [03:45] Dubai pilots, one Brit and one other [03:49] European who were on that flight who [03:52] were supposed to take over in case there [03:54] was any slight disruption in time. may [03:56] be a late takeoff. It may be a slight [03:58] diver u uh divergence in the in the [04:01] flight path because the two pilots were [04:04] getting very close to their um maximum [04:07] amount amount of time of flying. Anyone [04:09] who knows about aviation law, there's [04:11] only a certain amount of time that [04:12] pilots can fly and they were getting [04:13] very close to it. So there were two [04:15] other pilots who were going to take over [04:17] after this flight. So they were on that [04:19] flight and that was one of the miracles [04:22] really that that saved the uh the event. [04:24] Uh but basically uh there were some [04:27] Israelis who did manage to get in did [04:30] subdue um the pilot apparently with [04:33] electric cables and eventually after [04:37] plummeting I mean you know I I don't [04:41] know the exact measurement but at one [04:44] point it sounded like they were even [04:45] going almost popping you know flying [04:47] straight down um and almost going to hit [04:50] the ground and it was again the timing [04:53] seemed to be miraculous. ulous and [04:56] thankfully they were able to land in [04:59] north northwest [05:02] Saudi Arabia. They were the Israelis or [05:05] the the passengers were treated very [05:06] well. Um there's a bit of it there was a [05:09] bit of a diplomatic incident. Israel [05:11] wanted to send a uh an air force flight [05:14] to pick them up. Uh the Saudis because [05:17] of sensitivity did not allow that. Then [05:20] there was suggestion that LR flight [05:22] would go. That also didn't happen. Uh so [05:25] in the end a another Fly Dubai airline [05:29] was sent in. As one can imagine there [05:31] were some Israelis who were very [05:33] reticent or hesitant to get on another [05:36] Fly Dubai flight. But [05:39] from what we understand, all of the [05:41] passengers did get on that uh flight and [05:44] returned safely to Israel this evening [05:47] to a hero's welcome. And of course uh [05:51] like everything else less than one month [05:53] before elections, it immediately got [05:56] turned into a political uh event. We saw [05:59] Prime Minister Netanyo at the airport [06:01] meeting with some of the passengers [06:04] especially those who are instrumental in [06:06] overpowering [06:08] um the um the pilot and even one uh [06:12] doctor only a dentist but obviously as [06:14] we know dentists do study uh you know [06:17] all parts of medicine and was able to um [06:21] uh I don't know if saved the life I [06:22] don't know if his life was in danger but [06:24] definitely was able to uh help uh the [06:27] pilot the Indian pilot was severely uh [06:30] stabbed during the uh attacks. What it [06:33] has done already is, you know, as I [06:36] said, it's really put a cleave uh in [06:40] Israel's political um season. What we [06:43] heard earlier in the week was um Prime [06:46] Minister Netanyahu along with Defense [06:48] Minister Katz um talked about um some [06:52] major security events happening in and [06:55] around the elections. Um there was a [06:58] security briefing which is supposed to [07:00] take place regularly anyway with the [07:02] leader of the opposition Y Leid uh about [07:05] these threats. Y lid came out later and [07:07] said there was absolutely no mention on [07:09] anything like a hijacking or 9 [07:13] 911 attack. Again we really don't know [07:16] if this Omani individual acted alone or [07:20] if he was involved in some organization. [07:22] apparently hadn't been flying too long [07:25] before fly Dubai. Um so we really don't [07:28] know too much beyond that. But uh [07:30] basically the warnings of attacks of [07:34] terror of uh of whatever they are, [07:37] whatever they might be uh was [07:39] immediately jumped on uh by the [07:41] opposition. The scareongering uh this [07:43] was you know earlier in the week. Um but [07:47] what is important is that uh again you [07:51] know not not to put too many too much [07:54] intention into the mind of of any of the [07:57] the major political players but what we [07:59] do know for certain is the more security [08:03] is the focus of the elections the [08:05] campaign the last few weeks the better [08:07] Netanyahu and his block will do that is [08:09] where they're strongest they are [08:11] security hawks um Israel is still [08:14] reeling psychologically from October [08:16] 7th. Even though it is 3 years away, [08:19] it's still there. We are Israel is still [08:21] fighting on multiple fronts are, you [08:25] know, many Israelis are still in [08:27] Lebanon, Syria, Gaza, uh elsewhere doing [08:31] hundreds of days of uh uh annual [08:34] service. So the issue of security is [08:37] very much there and the more that it [08:40] becomes the prominent issue in the [08:42] elections, the better Netanyah will do. [08:44] earlier on in the campaign or even pre- [08:47] campaign where the issue was the [08:49] ultraorththodox enlistment uh [08:51] integration of the ultraorththodox etc [08:54] etc that the coalition did worse and the [08:56] opposition did better that is a kitty's [09:00] heel of nata it's not something that [09:02] makes him look good um most Israelis [09:05] whether they're left right or center um [09:08] are find the issue very problematic and [09:11] are against the current coalition's [09:13] position on it uh even though in the end [09:15] they weren't able to legislate an [09:17] enlistment law or a non-inlistment law [09:20] depending how you look at it but either [09:22] way it is not an issue which served [09:24] Netino and he had been scrambling for an [09:27] agenda point for quite a while um over [09:31] the last few days certainly it seems [09:33] that NetO has reclaimed to a certain [09:36] extent uh the agenda with this issue we [09:39] know obviously we saw that he spoke at [09:42] the UN uh last week at the end of last [09:45] week and again talked about all the [09:47] threats and obviously all his successes [09:50] uh we saw uh the so-called mass walkout [09:54] it actually wasn't as large as some like [09:56] to think uh most nations remained in the [09:59] room at the time and um most Europeans [10:03] most western countries certainly very [10:05] few walked out um but we also know that [10:08] there was an attempt at orchestration by [10:11] the Palestinian delegation to the UN [10:14] which basically sent a message round to [10:16] all other delegations uh to make sure [10:19] that they were in the room just before [10:20] Netanyahu rose to speak in the podium [10:23] and then would walk out as he made his [10:25] way uh to the podium. uh that was not [10:28] denied and in fact they even suggested [10:31] to bring as many uh people from the [10:34] delegation you know the UN delegations [10:36] have sometimes uh you know a lot of [10:39] people junior people secretaries etc to [10:42] try and bring them all there to make it [10:44] look um as large as possible uh so it it [10:48] it did make quite a scene [10:51] speech certainly didn't have the [10:52] surprises that he promised there was [10:54] nothing particularly surprising there [10:57] wasn't the gimmicks either really did [11:00] come out with a you know a sort of a [11:02] line that certainly his proponents will [11:05] enjoy when he said if there are any more [11:07] moral cowards in this room please leave [11:10] now because it was clear that the walk [11:12] out was going to happen as it happened [11:14] last year and uh in some previous uh [11:17] years um but certainly Netting was on [11:20] solid ground it didn't give him that the [11:22] speech probably didn't give him a major [11:24] boost but certainly the turn of the [11:28] security to the agenda has given the [11:31] current coalition a boost. At the [11:33] moment, according to most polls that [11:35] I've seen, it's either neck andneck [11:37] between the uh the current coalition, [11:39] the current opposition, neither are [11:42] getting in the late 50s, let alone over [11:44] 60 in the region of 52, 53, 54, 55, [11:49] depending which poll you see. Um but [11:51] it's clear that neither side are any [11:54] closer uh to a coalition but the numbers [11:57] don't tell the whole story because while [12:00] the coalition is maxed out on whatever [12:02] that number should be um the opposition [12:06] number does not include the Arab parties [12:08] and that's important and sometimes even [12:11] US Hendle's party um which in theory is [12:15] considered a third block but would [12:17] certainly be more comfortable in uh the [12:20] opposite ition rather than alongside [12:22] Netanyao. Um, and what why that's [12:26] important is is the following. while the [12:29] opposition at the moment who by the way [12:31] had a meeting I think it was Saturday [12:33] night uh to try and coordinate their [12:36] campaign we're talking about um uh [12:39] Eisenot Bennett Laid u Lieberman and um [12:45] Yay Golan tried to have a meeting again [12:48] understanding that they were losing the [12:51] narrative a little bit they were losing [12:52] the agenda a little bit they had to uh [12:55] coordinate better and also they agreed [12:57] to go after their audiences uh [13:00] succinctly and specifically uh and not [13:03] target each other. One of the things [13:05] that has also stymied their growth in [13:08] recent days is while Netanyahu is [13:11] talking about the issues um the [13:14] opposition is sort of caught in this. [13:16] Are they going to sit with the Arabs? [13:19] Who's going to nominate who for prime [13:22] minister? Because at the moment uh [13:24] Eisenhol is obviously well ahead amongst [13:27] the opposition parties but both Naftali [13:30] Bennett and a Victor Leeman both [13:32] consider themselves prime ministerial [13:34] candidates and that's caused um some [13:37] would argue certainly in Eisenot's camp [13:40] a little bit of a a cloud because [13:44] there's no one person who's standing out [13:46] in front. Now, it makes sense for [13:48] Lieberman and uh Netanyahu to say that [13:51] they are running for not Netanyahu, [13:53] sorry, Bennett that they are running for [13:55] prime minister because if they say, "Oh, [13:57] we're going to support Eisenot," then [13:59] they will probably both um have some of [14:02] their voters go to Eisenot. Because [14:03] they'll say, "Well, we want to go with a [14:06] person who's most likely." So, it makes [14:08] sense strategically not to back Eisenot [14:10] at this point. Um but uh that's [14:14] basically been the debate at the moment [14:16] in the opposition and because of that [14:18] they haven't really been able to uh [14:21] define the message and control the [14:23] agenda. We've spoken many times in the [14:25] past that uh for a successful campaign [14:28] it has to define the agenda because when [14:30] you're uh uh when when you're reacting [14:33] you're usually losing in politics and at [14:35] the moment the opposition is just [14:37] reacting. Um at the moment as I said [14:40] Netanyao is very much able to control [14:42] the agenda. Incumbency is very [14:44] important. He is the prime minister when [14:46] he talks about security issues. The [14:48] media will relay it. People will talk [14:50] about it and regardless of whether the [14:53] opposition say he is uh using scare [14:56] tactics. It's less relevant. The fact is [14:59] that people are talking about it and [15:00] that is only good for the Netinho block. [15:03] what I was trying to say before uh that [15:06] uh it's important to note that the [15:08] opposition isn't just um the so-called [15:11] Zionist parties those uh people who met [15:14] on Saturday night that I mentioned but [15:17] actually there's already there's also uh [15:20] another what is it uh uh 10 something [15:24] seats in the Arab sector Ram and the [15:26] joint list now they are not obvious [15:29] partners for the opposition [15:31] um and uh almost all of the opposition [15:34] leaders apart from Golan has said that [15:36] they will not sit in a government [15:38] certainly not with a joint list who are [15:41] uh you know proudly raidly some of them [15:45] anti-ionist [15:47] Ram has sat in a coalition not in the [15:49] government if we remember during the [15:51] Bennett laid uh period um but the [15:55] question is can they rely on them even [15:57] to make a minority government it is [15:59] possible constitutionally for there to [16:02] be a government of less than 61. If [16:04] Eisenhot were to get for example 55 [16:07] seats and uh uh basically have the Arab [16:13] parties abstain when they voted in the [16:16] government um then they will be able to [16:19] do quite a lot legislatively. [16:21] The first thing that they will probably [16:23] do is replace the speaker. At the [16:25] moment, Amir Alana is a loyalist, very [16:28] prominent liquid member and that is very [16:31] important because the speaker of the [16:32] Knesset is the one who controls the [16:34] agenda, the legislative debate and if [16:37] they were able to replace him uh then [16:40] they would be able to start moving along [16:42] perhaps at least on the legislative [16:45] issue even if they're not able to do [16:47] much on a governmental issue because of [16:49] their minority. for example, things like [16:52] um whether they could pass a law to [16:56] create a state commission of inquiry [16:58] into the events surrounding the October [17:00] 7th massacre. That's something, as we [17:01] know, Prime Minister Netanyahu's [17:03] avoided. He's talked about something [17:05] lesser, but that's something that most [17:08] Israelis want and certainly something [17:09] the opposition would want. Another thing [17:11] perhaps they could do is limit um the [17:14] number of terms of a prime minister. [17:16] something that obviously the coalition [17:19] has avoided, but the opposition very [17:20] much wants to see or even uh pass a law [17:24] to um disbar a uh prime minister who is [17:30] under investigation from uh from uh [17:33] being in his in in office. We know that [17:35] a minister has to resign if he or she is [17:39] under investigation. But as we saw, it's [17:42] a little bit more of a gray area when [17:44] we're talking about prime minister. And [17:45] as a result, Netanyao has not been [17:49] forced to resign, not by the Supreme [17:51] Court and not constitutionally. [17:53] But perhaps these are the things that [17:55] they could change even if they're not [17:57] able to get a majority in the government [17:59] and get too much moving on a [18:01] governmental level at a legislative [18:03] level. if they have the uh silent [18:06] acquiescence of the Arab parties on a [18:09] shared agenda uh perhaps they could get [18:11] something done and that's certainly [18:13] something that worries Netanyahu. So at [18:15] the moment his aim as much as possible [18:17] is to get every single seat to try and [18:20] ensure that not only will Eisenot uh and [18:23] the uh opposition receive a majority but [18:26] even not have enough to rely uh on the [18:30] Arab parties trying to do what he did [18:32] last time to try and peel off as many [18:34] singular uh members of Knesset. Um [18:42] I see that there's already a question in [18:43] the chat. please put it in the Q&A um to [18:46] peel off enough who said you know you [18:49] promise not to rely on the out parties [18:52] um please do not uh do not allow this to [18:56] happen and vote against uh this sort of [18:58] minority government. So these are the [19:00] things that we're going to see and [19:01] that's the reason Netanyahu is trying to [19:04] um trying to ensure that every vote uh [19:07] for possible coalition party passes and [19:10] trying to ensure that those like Hendo [19:12] and his partner and even Off Winter uh [19:17] do not waste votes. Um we'll have to [19:19] wait and see that. So even though we had [19:22] a a potentially almost terrible tragic [19:25] event today, even that is getting caught [19:27] up in the campaign calendar uh which is [19:32] which is to be expected even if one [19:35] might argue that it's unfortunate with [19:37] that. I'm going to go to the questions. [19:40] Okay, Steven Miller asks, "What which [19:42] side do you think most likely to form a [19:44] government after the election and what [19:46] are main ways they could do it?" Well, [19:48] um I guess yeah, I see that you put your [19:50] question before I uh finished my uh my [19:53] remarks, which is fair enough. I did say [19:55] to put questions up. Um at the moment, [19:58] as I said, it doesn't seem like NetO has [20:01] the numbers. There are polls usually by [20:04] very very favorable media to NetO that [20:08] show that he has got a pathway to 61 [20:11] plus. Um but most of the more neutral [20:14] polls do not show him anything more than [20:16] 55. 55 is still six seats away. One [20:20] thing that is very important which I [20:22] haven't mentioned is there are according [20:24] to all polls uh that I've seen there is [20:27] a very large undecided um uh number [20:32] uh that will probably get uh smaller as [20:36] the uh as as the campaign draws to a [20:38] close. Israel usually has a very high uh [20:42] vote vote ratio. It's usually in the [20:45] 70s. So even those who say they haven't [20:47] made up their mind probably will do by [20:49] then. Whether they're going to go with [20:51] the current coalition or the opposition [20:54] um remains to be seen. Uh again we'll [20:57] see um if as has happened before there [21:02] could be many amongst those who will you [21:04] know as they say hold their nose and [21:06] vote. Netao has the best of the worst. [21:10] Net is very good at that perception that [21:13] there's no one else who can do that job [21:15] even if you believe he's made uh many [21:18] mistakes. So at the moment my sense [21:21] would be we could be facing another [21:23] round of elections. Uh certainly it will [21:26] go to the uh to the end to the last [21:29] moment. Um there is that possibility of [21:32] relying on a minority government relying [21:34] on the Arab extensions. Um but it would [21:38] be a very shortlived government anyway [21:40] probably or perhaps there are those who [21:42] are hoping that if they get minority [21:44] government perhaps they can um have [21:47] liquid internal processes uh ensure that [21:50] Netino uh gets pushed aside and then [21:54] liquid without NetO could join the [21:56] government although there's a lot of ifs [21:58] and buts before that could happen. [22:02] Um [22:06] Harry Hillbran asked why isn't the [22:08] opposition more aggressively push the [22:10] point of the government surrening to the [22:12] karedi parties to accommodate draft [22:15] exemptions and transferring large sums [22:18] their institutions well they have I mean [22:20] that as I said during the early parts of [22:23] the campaign that was the issue if not [22:26] the only issue that was uh of interest [22:29] and for many Israelis it is still an [22:31] issue but it has kind fallen off a [22:33] little bit by design as well as by [22:35] default. Maybe the Kedi leaders um the [22:39] ultra orthodox leaders have managed to [22:41] quell their extremists arguing to them [22:43] that this is not the time uh that it's [22:46] only hurting them. Uh the opposition [22:48] certainly is trying to bring that issue [22:50] to the four. At the moment, security is [22:53] ruling and at the end of the day, [22:55] security is paramount as one can imagine [22:58] in a country like Israel, fighting on as [23:00] many fronts as it does. Really, if [23:03] security is on the ballot, if if [23:05] security is in the air, security will be [23:08] on the on the ballot regardless of other [23:11] issues. It will be there no matter what. [23:14] anything else the issue of the karedi uh [23:17] exemptions [23:19] um and and the wider issues you say [23:21] transferring large sums to the [23:22] institution will be there u but it will [23:25] not be number one um I've seen enough [23:28] polls uh to show that it's not the [23:30] number one issue um but again if there [23:34] are large demonstrations [23:37] uh perhaps some some egregious event [23:40] happens which again brings it to the [23:42] four but that is something the prime [23:44] prime minister and his partners in the [23:45] coalition will do everything to avoid [23:47] because as I said the more that that is [23:49] prominent the worse the government the [23:51] current government will do at the polls. [23:53] Um so at the moment they're trying to [23:55] keep in the background even though the [23:57] uh opposition will certainly be trying [24:00] to push that uh to the front knowing [24:02] that is a weakness for the coalition. [24:06] Um, [24:07] Kiri Ismile asked, "Do you think that [24:09] Netany will lose the election and end [24:11] his year as a prime minister?" Um, will [24:14] he lose the election? Um, I don't think [24:16] he'll win the election. [24:19] How does he not win the election and [24:21] maybe not lose? at the moment I would [24:23] say his the most likely survival tactic [24:26] for him is to ensure that even if he [24:29] does not win which seems highly unlikely [24:32] um that the other side does not have a [24:35] pathway to power does not have a pathway [24:37] to governance does not have a pathway uh [24:40] to get that 61 which will mean that [24:43] perhaps we'll go for another round of [24:44] elections and that will be at least 3 [24:46] months perhaps more uh perhaps even up [24:50] to six months and let's not forget [24:52] during During that time, Natino will [24:53] still remain in the prime minister seat. [24:56] Certainly, he will not have the power to [24:58] make too many large decisions as um a [25:01] government is not allowed to during any [25:03] campaign as they're currently not [25:04] allowed to. Um so, I have one rule in [25:08] Israeli politics. You never get the bet [25:10] against Bibby. Um he has pulled off um [25:14] I'm not sure for worse situations like [25:18] this. This is definitely the fight of [25:20] his political life, but he is a consumer [25:22] politician. He's a very good campaigner [25:25] and as we're seeing now at the crucial [25:27] time less than one one months before the [25:30] election, he is once again able to [25:32] control the agenda. There was a time [25:34] only a couple of weeks ago where he was [25:36] flailing a little bit, but now he's been [25:38] able to reclaim and retake it. Um, so [25:41] certainly he's in a better place. Will [25:43] he win the election? I doubt it. Will he [25:46] lose it? That remains to be seen. [25:49] Um [25:52] Jack Wesserman asks, "Is judicial reform [25:55] dead?" Um well, I mean, it's certainly [25:58] dead for now because we're the Knesset [26:00] isn't meeting and it will only meet [26:03] again after the elections, after the [26:04] results come in, after the seats have [26:07] been divvied up and we will see a new uh [26:10] Knesset. The likelihood again according [26:13] to the polls the current uh coalition [26:17] which pushed judicial reform will not [26:19] have a majority. Again that's not to [26:21] that's not to preempt the results but it [26:24] does seem from now that the current [26:25] coalition which has a comfortable [26:27] majority uh which tried to push judicial [26:30] reform but were not able to pass too [26:32] much. They were able to get uh some uh [26:35] areas of it but they weren't able to uh [26:38] pass too much. uh and that is why those [26:40] like um uh Batal Smatri are trying to [26:44] make that issue again at the forefront [26:46] because they realize that's important [26:48] for their electorate. Uh so at the [26:51] moment judicial reform is dead. Whether [26:54] it can be raised again after the [26:56] elections depends on the results. But [26:58] the way things are going uh the [27:00] proponents of the let's say the more [27:03] extreme version of judicial reform will [27:05] probably not have a majority. But what [27:08] should be said is that there are [27:10] proponents in the current opposition [27:12] like Napali Bennett, like Kavdan and [27:14] others who believe in some sort of a [27:17] more moderate uh judicial reform. So, [27:20] it's not dead completely and it's not [27:24] impossible. It could be resurrected at [27:26] some point. But certainly the more [27:28] extreme uh elements that were talked [27:31] about uh in the last campaign and during [27:34] uh the current uh government uh do not [27:37] seem like they have uh too much of a [27:40] life ahead of themselves, at least [27:42] during the next term. And with that, I'd [27:45] like to thank you very much for your [27:46] questions and your participation. and I [27:49] will see you next week. Thank you and [27:52] good night for Misha.
