Transcript [00:00] Everything I saw puts them at about 24, [00:03] 23, 22 seats. Is that accurate? Is that [00:06] your kind of feel on the ground? I know [00:08] polling can be different. And does Prime [00:10] Minister Netanyahu have a chance to [00:12] continue being prime minister? Will [00:13] there be a shared thing? How does how's [00:15] that going to play out in your opinion? [00:16] I believe that Netanyahu will be prime [00:18] minister again. I don't believe that [00:19] number you told me 2224. I think the [00:21] Liquid is going to get closer to 30. [00:23] Personally, I don't believe that [00:24] Eisenkott will be able to create a [00:26] coalition. I I don't see how it works [00:27] out. If he runs that party and he gets [00:30] close and doesn't get in and we're like [00:31] the left was in 2022, that's the only [00:34] recipe I see for Netanyahu not being the [00:38] next prime minister. Welcome to this [00:40] episode of Shouldertoshoulder, a podcast [00:41] where a pastor and a rabbi get to the [00:43] heart of issues that matter to people of [00:44] faith. I'm Pastor Doug Reed here with my [00:46] friend Rabbi Pesaki. And on this [00:49] episode, we're going to be having a [00:51] brief thought on Russash Shana, but then [00:53] we have to get into the Israeli [00:54] elections that are coming up. You're [00:56] going to want to stick around for the [00:58] election conversation. But before we [01:00] jump into that conversation, please like [01:02] our Facebook page and join our Facebook [01:03] group, the Shoulder-to-Ser Community, [01:05] where you can interact with Pesak and me [01:07] all week long. The best way to support [01:09] this podcast is to go on over to [01:11] Patreon, subscribe to [01:12] Shouldertoshoulder. For just $10 a [01:14] month, you're helping us bring this [01:16] message of Shouldertoshoulder to more [01:18] and more people all around the world. As [01:20] a thank you for your $10 subscription, [01:22] you'll get exclusive access to chapterby [01:24] chapter Bible study beginning in Genesis [01:26] chapter 1 from Rabbi Peso and myself. So [01:28] go on over to Patreon, subscribe to [01:29] Shouldertoshoulder for just $10 a month. [01:33] We're grateful for our sponsor, Israel [01:35] 365 News, which is the place for you to [01:37] go and get your news and information [01:38] before going to anyone else. go on over [01:40] to Israel the numbers 365news.com [01:44] and be sure to check out all of their [01:47] articles but especially Rabbi Peso and [01:49] Mike columns Peso each and every week we [01:52] support an amazing product or initiative [01:54] happening at Israel 365 what is going on [01:57] today well as you mentioned Doug Russash [02:00] Shana and the festival season are upon [02:03] us Russashana is this weekend and [02:05] shortly thereafters we're going to have [02:07] sukkot the feast of tabernacles of [02:08] course with the day of atonement at [02:10] Yumkipur in between. And it is a very [02:12] expensive time of year for especially [02:15] for families that are struggling. And in [02:16] Israel today, there are still [02:18] unfortunately families like in every [02:21] society who do not have enough to put [02:24] food on the table. Certainly not in a [02:26] way that will give their families the [02:28] feeling and the experience of the joyous [02:30] festival that those of us who who have [02:33] more can have. So we need to include [02:36] them in our festive joy. They they want [02:39] to be a part of it too and they deserve [02:41] it. So this month the team at Israel 365 [02:44] charity is running a dedicated campaign [02:45] to assist these families and make sure [02:47] that they can celebrate the festivals [02:49] with their children like the rest of us. [02:51] We're putting together massive food [02:52] packages that will be handd delivered to [02:55] people's doorsteps and we're sponsoring [02:57] participants to attend a deluxe holiday [02:59] meal hosted in Jerusalem. If this [03:01] initiative speaks to you and I ask that [03:03] you join us and help make a difference [03:05] for these people, click the link in the [03:07] description of this video and let's make [03:08] sure that no family in Israel [03:11] has a has a table that's lacking this [03:15] festival season. Let's help them out. [03:17] Amen. So important. And if that speaks [03:20] to you, be a part of that as Rashana is [03:23] uh upon us about this weekend. Uh it's [03:26] coming up very quickly. Uh this uh this [03:28] Shabbat or this uh yeah this Shabbat [03:31] Saturday and Sunday, right? [03:32] >> Yes. Rashana is two days. It'll be [03:33] Saturday and Sunday this year. [03:35] >> Excellent. So make sure make sure you [03:36] donate. Stop by there and do that. Be a [03:38] part. Peso, what do you have on the [03:41] calendar for Russashana? What what [03:42] typically happens in your home? [03:45] >> Well, in my home, you know, now my kids [03:47] are older. So whatever typically [03:49] happened over the years raising them, [03:50] we're in that transition period where [03:52] most of the kids are out of the house. I [03:54] don't I think only a couple of them are [03:56] going to be I think only four of my kids [03:57] or so are going to be home out of the [03:58] eight. So four sounds like a lot of [04:00] kids, but it won't be uh it won't be [04:02] like most years. Not a whole lot goes [04:05] on. I mean, we'll we of course, you [04:06] know, we'll go to services at synagogue. [04:08] We'll enjoy we'll enjoy our meals. One [04:10] of the things that uh you know, one of [04:12] the customs that we that we practice, [04:14] and you might be aware of this one, [04:15] Doug, is that all year round when we [04:20] when we eat the kala at our festive [04:23] meals or our Sabbath meals, we put a [04:24] little bit of salt on it. And that [04:26] reminds us of the salt that was on every [04:28] offering in the temple. [04:31] But for the Russ for Russia shana, and [04:33] according to some customs, that's my [04:35] family custom as well, we do this all [04:36] the way till the end of Sukkot. Instead, [04:38] we use honey just for this time of year. [04:41] We use honey on our kala besides also [04:43] dipping an apple in honey, which is [04:44] quite which is what rashana is famous [04:46] for. It's on all like the you know the [04:48] new year's cards. It'll show an apple [04:49] and honey. And this is all as a as a way [04:52] of just saying we should we should have [04:54] a sweet year and to start our year with [04:56] sweetness. And uh I find honey to be the [04:59] perfect sweetener for this because honey [05:02] has an interesting quality that besides [05:05] being sweet, honey cannot spoil. [05:08] >> It does not spoil. You can find honey [05:10] that's decades old and it might be a [05:13] little crystallized but then you know [05:14] once you melt it down it's still sweet. [05:16] It's still good. [05:17] >> Honey that properties of honey [05:19] >> in one of the Egyptian tombs. I feel [05:20] like they found some honey and some salt [05:22] and neither of them were bad. [05:24] >> Correct. Correct. So honey does not [05:26] spoil. They both work as preservatives, [05:27] but of course honey is sweet and and [05:30] salt is not. So I always like to add a [05:33] little symbolism to the sweetness of the [05:35] honey that it's not just to have a sweet [05:36] year, but it's to have a sweet year that [05:38] is sustainable. [05:40] >> Amen. [05:40] >> But Doug, I want to share a different [05:41] thought about Rashashana. [05:43] One that I'm not sure I've I've shared [05:45] on this podcast in the past. Although, [05:46] you know, our listeners for the five [05:48] years, we're coming up on a full five [05:50] years that'll be coming. [05:52] >> 50 episodes of shoulder-to-shoulder. [05:54] That's wild. [05:55] >> Yeah. Yeah, we're going to have a [05:55] special episode for that. [05:58] So, our our veteran listeners might have [06:00] heard me say this. I can't remember [06:01] everything I've said about Rashashana [06:03] over the over the years we've been doing [06:04] this. [06:06] But one of the changes that's made in [06:08] our liturgy in the Jewish liturgy [06:11] from Rashashana through the day of [06:13] atonement through Yumipur for that [06:14] 10-day period is that at a few places in [06:18] our in our liturgy instead of referring [06:22] to God as God we refer to him as king. [06:25] We just change a word and rather than [06:27] call him God we call him king. And [06:30] there's an emphasis on God's kingship [06:32] during this period of time especially [06:34] Russashana. In fact, the theme of the [06:36] Russashana liturgy and the theme that [06:39] Jews are raised with on Rashashana, even [06:40] though it's not in the biblical text, is [06:43] the kingship of God. And God is God. [06:46] He's also our father. He's also, you [06:48] know, there's all these names for God [06:49] about different ways we interact with [06:50] him. But God as king is emphasized on [06:54] Russashana. And that has a lot to do, I [06:57] think I talked about this in a previous [06:58] year where we talked about the [06:59] chauffear. And if you look at verses in [07:02] scripture about the blowing of the [07:04] chauffear, they're often in the context [07:08] of coronation of God as king or in the [07:12] or referring to God as king will be [07:15] right there. And I could start quoting [07:16] you all kinds of verses from Psalms that [07:18] connect the chauffear to God's kingship. [07:21] So there's that relationship. But I [07:23] wanted to take it in a slightly [07:24] different direction. I did a little [07:26] research project a few years ago where I [07:29] looked up every single instance in in [07:32] the in the Tanakh in the Hebrew Bible [07:34] where God is referred to as king. And as [07:37] you can imagine, there's a lot of them. [07:39] This is not a a periodic thing. God is [07:42] referred to as king in many many verses, [07:44] especially in the book of Psalms. That's [07:45] where the overwhelming bulk of them are. [07:48] >> Is there only one Hebrew word for king? [07:51] Is it just melik or [07:52] >> melik? Yeah, melik is king. Yeah, that's [07:53] the word. There's no other variations. [07:55] It's just that word uh that [07:57] >> no I mean God will also be referred to [07:59] as Moshelle which means ruler but that's [08:01] actually different and that's worthy of [08:02] note at times where he's referred to and [08:04] there's a lot of there's a lot been [08:05] written on what's the difference between [08:06] a Moshelle and a mel and you know there [08:10] are commentaries on that because there [08:11] there is one particular verse that [08:13] refers to God as a Moshelle uh rather [08:16] than as a uh you know you know and also [08:18] as a mel but that's a that's a different [08:20] topic but I wanted to see when God is [08:23] referred to as king what is the context. [08:26] And I looked up every single verse in [08:28] scripture and there are entire psalms [08:30] that are devoted to the kingship of God [08:33] as well. And here's what I found. [08:37] What I found was that overwhelmingly, [08:40] and we're talking well over 90% of the [08:42] instances where God is referred to as [08:44] king, the context is the nations of the [08:48] world or meaning the nation of Israel [08:52] included that the nations the world. [08:55] It's a uni. It It seems pretty clear [09:00] that referring to God as king is a way [09:03] of referring to God's [09:06] lordship or sovereignty over all of [09:10] humanity much more than the other names [09:12] of God per se, which might refer to [09:14] certain traits of his. [09:16] Um, [09:18] in in the five books of Moses, [09:24] God is barely ever referred, he's only [09:26] referred to as king once [09:28] explicitly in the five books of Moses. [09:31] And the context is other nations. The [09:33] context is the song at the sea that the [09:36] nation of Israel sing when they're [09:38] crossing the Red Sea. The theme of that [09:40] song is all about the destruction of [09:42] Egypt. And in that context, the last [09:45] line of that song is that God will reign [09:48] forever. God will reign forever and [09:50] ever. That's the will reign is the word [09:52] melik. Reign and king in English are two [09:55] different words. In Hebrew, one is the [09:57] verb form of the word king. [09:59] >> It's like if king were a verb to king. [10:02] >> Okay? So God will be king [10:04] >> forever and ever is God will reign [10:06] forever and ever. But what I what I came [10:10] away with when I looked at again these [10:13] dozens and dozens of instances where God [10:15] is called king and overwhelmingly they [10:17] were talking about his relationship to [10:18] the nations of the world. That the light [10:21] bulb that went off for me and the [10:23] listeners right now who are Jewish who [10:25] know the Russashana liturgy maybe the [10:27] light bulb has already gone off for you [10:29] which is that the liturgy on Russashana [10:31] is extremely universal. [10:34] It talks about the nations [10:37] much more as a centerpiece of the theme [10:41] than any other liturgy of the year. So [10:44] much so that when we talk about our [10:46] forefathers, which we talk about [10:47] Abraham, Isaac, and Jacob non-stop in [10:50] our liturgy, three times a day when we [10:51] pray, we mention Abraham, Isaac, and [10:52] Jacob. Abraham, Isaac, and Jacob. And [10:54] only one day a year when we're talking [10:56] about our forefathers, we talk about [10:58] Abraham, Isaac, and Jacob and Noah. And [11:01] no, we don't think of Noah as a [11:03] forefather, but that's because on [11:04] Rashashana, we're focusing much more on [11:06] the entire world. There are extra [11:08] paragraphs that are added into the [11:10] standard Amida liturgy. The standard [11:11] liturgy that we say in our in our in our [11:14] the centerpiece of the prayer is what's [11:15] called the Amida where we stand silently [11:17] and everyone reads and there's a certain [11:19] set liturgy to the first few uh [11:22] paragraphs of it throughout the year [11:24] except on rashashana and yum kipur where [11:26] there's a few paragraphs that are added [11:28] in and those paragraphs are all about [11:31] the entire world recognizing the [11:33] sovereignty of God. the entire world. [11:35] This emphasis on all of humanity on [11:37] Rashashana is unique to to Rashashana. [11:41] It's unique to this to the Russashana [11:43] Yumipur, the high holiday season. [11:45] >> And I was thinking about this this year. [11:48] I think about this every year, [11:50] especially, you know, I've devoted my [11:52] life to building bridges with people [11:53] outside the Jewish faith. And I think a [11:55] lot about the how how Judaism is meant [11:58] to be a faith where we're we're outward [12:00] focused and and we're focused on [12:02] bringing knowledge of God to all the [12:04] families of the earth and so that [12:06] knowledge of God will cover the entire [12:08] earth like water covers the sea. You've [12:09] heard me say these things so many times [12:11] is what motivates so much of what I do [12:13] in my life. But I was thinking about it [12:15] in the context of Sukkot of the feast of [12:18] tabernacles following so shortly after [12:20] Rashashana and that the only one of the [12:23] pilgrimage festivals that the nations [12:26] are called to participate in explicitly [12:28] in the Bible is Sukkot. The prophet [12:30] Zachchariah at the end of the book [12:33] demands it's more than calls them. He [12:35] doesn't just invite the nations in. He [12:37] actually warns them if they don't. like [12:39] he he demands that the nations he he [12:40] calls on the nations to participate with [12:43] the nation of Israel in the feast of [12:45] tabernacles and the 70 bulls that are [12:47] brought over the course of the seven [12:49] days of Sukkot are symbolic of the 70 [12:51] nations 70 I I know there's more than 70 [12:53] nations look at the United Nations [12:54] there's a whatever however many there [12:56] are but from a biblical perspective the [12:58] number 70 relates to is indicates the [13:02] nations of the world so we have these 70 [13:04] bulls there's a universalist theme that [13:08] runs through the festivals of this [13:10] season of the year culminating in Sukkot [13:13] where ultimately it's it's the image of [13:16] all the nations of the world streaming [13:18] into Jerusalem to serve God together and [13:21] that transition from a particularistic [13:23] way of thinking like on the other end of [13:25] the of the spectrum you have Passover [13:28] which is the most particularistic of all [13:30] the festivals it's it's about the birth [13:31] of the nation of Israel and the Bible [13:33] says explicitly that a foreigner is not [13:36] allowed to participate in the Passover [13:37] offering. You know, it's cuz it's all [13:39] about the particularism of the Jewish [13:41] people, but that ultimately culminates [13:43] in a universalistic mission. The people [13:45] of Israel are meant to be a [13:46] particularistic nation that has a [13:48] universal mission. And that's that. But [13:50] that universal side of what Judaism is [13:54] meant to be, what the nation of Israel [13:55] is meant to accomplish in this world is [13:58] embodied or is is manifest so uh in such [14:02] a forward way on Rashashana. And I just [14:06] wanted to I guess I'm also I'm speaking [14:08] very much to our Jewish listeners to [14:10] have that in mind because a lot you know [14:12] every every Jew knows oh Russash we're [14:14] declaring God as king. Great. What does [14:16] that mean? So my point is that [14:18] biblically that means that we are now [14:20] focused not on the Jewish people as [14:24] which is what we focus on so much of the [14:26] year in our liturgy. But now we're [14:28] focused on our role as a light unto the [14:30] nations and on praying for the benefit [14:33] of all of humanity so that ultimately we [14:35] can all serve God together. That's what [14:37] I wanted to share. Just a thought to [14:39] think something to think about for [14:41] Russia. [14:42] >> Amen. And I would remind our Christian [14:45] listeners, it's one of the reasons that [14:47] uh particularly Eagle Swings who I've [14:48] gone back and forth to Israel with so [14:50] much always has their big trip in the [14:54] fall during Russashana and Sukot. It [14:57] usually falls in there. And this year, I [15:00] was speaking with Bishop Sterns [15:01] yesterday. I had uh dinner with him [15:03] Friday and we were talking about it. And [15:05] this year, they have the largest trip [15:07] Eagle's Wings has ever brought to [15:09] Israel. They're bringing 500 people from [15:12] 49 nations coming to Israel during the [15:16] feast of Sukkot. And going to have an [15:18] incredible time. I think there's like a [15:21] prince and princess of a Nigerian tribe [15:23] is coming. they have like I I don't know [15:25] how he does it. He is uh incredible and [15:28] just got back from the Philippines and [15:30] he and I were uh getting some time this [15:32] weekend. It was really good. But uh [15:34] incredible. And if you're uh a Christian [15:36] in this space, the day to pray for the [15:38] peace of Jerusalem has been a unifying [15:41] uh thing during that same season for [15:43] that reason that the nations are [15:44] streaming up that Jerusalem is that [15:47] central hub of where God has written his [15:50] name. he's put himself. And so, uh, I [15:52] think that's really, really good. I [15:54] would ask one question, Peso, on the [15:58] Christians often ask me, I I've had [16:00] congregants over the years, well, how [16:01] can we where's a good crossover space? [16:04] How do we let the Jewish community know [16:07] we support them? Is there something at [16:08] the synagogue we could show up to? Is [16:10] there an event? And so, we've had people [16:12] do PUM. We've had people try going to a, [16:15] you know, community uh, seder that are [16:17] sometimes held. I went to one here held [16:19] by the Habad House in Buffalo just to [16:21] let just hey I'm here to support just [16:23] want you guys to know that you have a [16:24] friend and we're here to to partake. Uh, [16:27] is there something around Russia Shana [16:29] that our Christian listeners could do to [16:32] show support or would that be weird? [16:34] Because some people don't know and [16:36] >> it would definitely be I'll tell you [16:37] what it would be. Synagogues at this [16:39] time of year only for the high holidays [16:42] because [16:43] because the synagogues are so packed. [16:45] There are a lot of Jews just like in the [16:47] Christian world you have you people who [16:48] only come to church on Christmas and [16:50] Easter. [16:50] >> Sure. The high holidays are if if a Jew [16:54] goes to synagogue ever, they go on [16:57] Rashashana and Yonomipur. [16:59] >> So that means that there's not a lot of [17:02] empty seats. Most synagogues will have [17:06] open seating all year round except [17:08] Rashana and Yum Kipur where the seats [17:10] are are are paid for with donations. [17:13] Obviously, it's the membership to the [17:14] synagogue. It all goes to the synagogue, [17:17] but seats will be reserved and assigned, [17:20] and you can't just have people walking [17:22] in off the street. That's one thing. The [17:23] second issue, Doug, is that it is my [17:28] dream [17:29] that synagogues would be more open about [17:33] inviting Christians to come in as [17:36] friendly observers to be there to, you [17:39] know, to say they could say some psalms. [17:43] They could enjoy the worship and just [17:45] show their solidarity. I think it's in I [17:48] think it's in the spirit of the temple [17:50] in Jerusalem, which is ultimately a [17:52] house of prayer for all nations. What I [17:53] always say to Jews when I talk about my [17:55] work in Jewish Christian relations, I [17:56] say, "You're praying, I'm talking about [17:59] Orthodox Jews, I say, you're praying to [18:01] rebuild the temple in Jerusalem. Are you [18:04] prepared to be outnumbered there?" [18:06] Because if it's a house of prayer for [18:07] all nations, if all the nations listen [18:09] to Zachchariah and come to Jerusalem on [18:11] the Feast of Tabernacles, I guarantee [18:12] you Jews, you are going to be [18:15] outnumbered in the city of Jerusalem. [18:17] And if that makes you uncomfortable, [18:18] then you have a problem with Zachchariah [18:21] and Isaiah and our mission as a people. [18:23] A mission that we have, for very good [18:25] reasons, lost sight of over the [18:27] centuries. Cuz when the world's trying [18:28] to kill you and chase you around, you [18:30] kind of forget that you have a universal [18:31] mission. So that said, it is my dream [18:35] that more and more rabbis will feel [18:38] comfortable and not feel threatened. And [18:41] let it be known that Christians should [18:44] be able to to join in and partake in [18:46] some way. But there's also no there's no [18:48] mechanism for it. No one would know what [18:50] to do with them because this is such [18:51] it's uncharted territory. And maybe [18:53] that's the kind of thing that that [18:54] Eagle's Wings and Israel 365 and we [18:57] could all work together and come up with [18:58] something. We're already uh working on a [19:01] project together to connect local rabbis [19:04] and pastors all over America for Shabbat [19:07] dinners [19:09] >> so that we can create local [19:10] relationships. And that's that's a [19:12] that's a project that is still in the [19:15] works. We've already initiated it with a [19:16] few small events, some some sort of [19:18] pilot events and also in Israel on the [19:20] Eagles Wings trip to Israel. This this [19:22] is a good way to circle back to what you [19:23] said. Eagle's Wings is bringing 500 500 [19:27] Christians to Israel for the Feast of [19:28] Tabernacles. I am spending the final day [19:31] of the Feast of Tabernacles, Sinatra. [19:34] I'm spending that festival this year in [19:37] a hotel in Jerusalem with over 300 [19:41] participants on the Eagle's Wings trip [19:43] >> and I'm leading a Shabbat dinner with [19:44] them. That's actually where I'm going to [19:45] be. I'll probably meet this Nigerian [19:47] prince. They couldn't all fit in one [19:49] hotel. So the other couple hundred are [19:50] in another hotel where another rabbi [19:52] from Israel 365, Rabbi Ellie Michelle is [19:54] going to be with them. [19:56] >> Ellie's great [19:56] >> because and and this is so [19:59] >> at the synagogue level locally, they'll [20:02] kind of get freaked out unfortunately if [20:04] Christians just walk in and say, "Hey, [20:06] I'm here to participate." They won't [20:07] know what to do with you. [20:08] >> But that's part of the work that we're [20:09] trying to do is to is to create a little [20:12] bit more comfort, you know, and again, [20:14] the Christians have to know how to [20:15] behave, but the Jews have to know how to [20:17] behave as well. We we all have a lot of [20:19] learning to do and uh we're still [20:21] tiptoeing into this relationship by and [20:23] large. But yeah, Doug, you know, to me [20:25] it's a dream that would uh that would [20:27] again be in the spirit of Zachchariah [20:29] and Isaiah and of what this is all [20:31] really supposed to be about. Amen. And I [20:33] know you've talked about uh having me [20:36] come with you to the synagogue on Yam [20:37] Kapor. And God willing, next year uh [20:39] I'll be living in Israel. Uh all things [20:42] are equal, all things go together well. [20:44] And we will have to fast together. And I [20:46] I want to come to the synagogue with you [20:47] if that still works. [20:49] >> Yeah, Doug. 24 hours, no eating, no [20:51] drinking, lots of prayer. [20:54] >> Buckle up. [20:55] >> It's going to be fun. [laughter] [20:57] >> Well, there's lots of uh other stuff [20:58] happening in Israel. You have elections [21:01] coming up. There's all sorts of pundant [21:03] spins and everybody has an opinion right [21:05] now. Uh we want to dialogue about the [21:08] election, but for those on the outside [21:10] that are newer to the podcast, haven't [21:11] heard us talk about Israeli politics, [21:13] Peso, set the scene. uh how does the [21:16] parliamentary system work? Give us, you [21:18] know, just a quick rundown and then [21:19] we'll get into the players and what's [21:20] actually happening in Israel right now. [21:25] >> The f the first thing that an American [21:27] who's trying to understand Israeli [21:29] election process has to understand is [21:31] that in Israel [21:34] in an Israeli citizen does not vote for [21:37] prime minister. There is no such thing [21:39] as voting for a prime minister. the [21:42] prime minister. [21:44] And I'm sort of starting at the middle, [21:45] but I want to get this out of the way [21:46] right at the beginning. Every time [21:47] there's an Israeli election, the day [21:49] after the election, my American [21:52] Christian friends who are watching from [21:53] afar will say, "Didn't Netanyahu win? [21:56] Who won?" And it's just, "Well, it [21:57] doesn't work that way." So, I want to [21:59] walk through I want to walk through the [22:02] basics of the process. And it could get [22:03] a little confusing if you're new to it. [22:05] So, just keep an open mind. I'm going to [22:06] walk through the basics of the process [22:08] because it's about a threemonth process [22:10] start to finish. We're already in it. [22:11] Even though the election is on October [22:13] 27th, one of the critical dates in the [22:17] process of the Israeli electoral uh [22:20] electoral season is actually [22:24] as of this recording, it's tomorrow. By [22:26] the time this is released on audio [22:28] platforms, it'll already have passed. [22:29] And that is September 8th. So, let me [22:31] explain. in Israel, the you when you go [22:35] into the [22:37] when you go in to vote, you don't have a [22:40] whole bunch of list of names. You're not [22:41] voting in local elections and and you [22:44] know, all sorts of different positions [22:45] like you have in America where you have [22:46] a whole slate and different people [22:48] you're voting for. There's only one vote [22:50] that you cast, one. And you are voting [22:54] for a Knesset slate. What does that [22:58] mean, a Knesset slate? So in Israel [23:02] there is proportional representation. [23:04] That means that the citizens vote for [23:07] parties. A party, every party that is [23:10] running in the election submits a list [23:13] of names [23:16] and everyone in the country then votes [23:19] and you vote for the list that you want [23:21] in. [23:23] Okay? So let's say I vote Likood and [23:28] Likood has submitted a list of names and [23:30] technically every party can submit up to [23:34] 120 names because there's 120 seats in [23:36] Knesset. I think it's possible that [23:37] there's a technicality that they have to [23:39] submit 120 names under the under the [23:42] hypothetical possibility that they would [23:44] get every single vote. [23:45] >> Sure. [23:46] >> But I'm not sure they do. I'm not sure [23:49] exactly if that happens. But I think [23:52] that was part of the original rules. [23:54] But what happens the day after the [23:56] election is that all the votes are cast [23:58] again they're only cast for parties. And [24:01] then ostensibly ostensibly we're going [24:03] to divide all of those votes by 120. [24:07] And every part is going to get the [24:08] number of seats that is proportional to [24:10] how many votes it got. So let's say [24:12] there's 120 seats in creset. My party [24:14] gets 10% of the vote. I get 12 seats in [24:16] the right. That's that's the way it [24:19] works. However, [24:21] >> there aren't just two parties. It's not [24:23] just Republicans, Democrats for for you [24:25] that are in America. There I I think [24:27] there's 13 parties at one point that [24:30] made Knesset. Um you can have seven [24:33] parties, you can have eight. It's all [24:35] proportional and you have to reach a [24:37] certain threshold for your party to get [24:39] a seat in Knesset. [24:41] >> Well, correct. Well, the threshold [24:43] actually entitles you to four seats. The [24:45] threshold is not so low. There was a [24:47] time I remember this uh well there was a [24:50] time where the threshold to get in okay [24:53] so let's get to the thresh let's talk [24:55] about what the threshold is you have to [24:57] pass a certain you have to get a certain [24:58] percentage of the vote a certain minimum [25:00] percentage and if you don't reach that [25:02] percentage your votes are thrown in the [25:05] trash meaning they're not even [25:06] considered part of the votes cast for [25:09] the division of the kesset okay so let's [25:11] say I [25:12] >> so let's say the minimum requirement is [25:15] 1% % and I don't get 1%. Those thousands [25:19] of votes that I got, they don't go to [25:21] anybody. And then the votes that then [25:24] all the parties that cross the [25:25] threshold, their votes get divided by [25:28] 120. But what happened back in the day [25:31] was that the threshold was very low. You [25:34] could get only one seat in Kesset [25:38] and parties did and parties that have [25:41] one seat and there'd be parties with two [25:42] seats. And there were way too many [25:44] parties and it caused it was a little [25:48] too chaotic. It put too much power in [25:50] the hands of people who got less than a [25:53] percent of the electorate. [25:56] But I'm getting ahead of myself because [25:58] we have to understand how the coalition [25:59] works. Let's first talk about the [26:00] structure. Everyone So everyone votes. [26:03] They vote for parties. The parties then [26:05] get their percentage of the seats in [26:07] Knesset based on how many votes they [26:09] got. But the minimum to get in is 3 and [26:12] 1/4% of the total votes cast. And that 3 [26:16] and 1/4% entitles you to a minimum of [26:19] four seats in Knesset. [26:22] So, for example, last election in 2022, [26:25] the merits party, which is the hardleft [26:28] party in Israel that sort of doesn't [26:30] exist anymore, they merged with another [26:33] party with the Labor Party to create [26:36] this left-wing party that is now called, [26:38] believe it or not, the Democrats. [26:40] They're called Democratim. They actually [26:41] named themselves after the Democrats in [26:43] America, which is strange to me that [26:45] they named themselves after an American [26:46] party. It's not even a Hebrew word. [26:48] Well, it's become a Hebrew word, but [26:50] it's an English word. Democratim. Even [26:52] Doug Reid understands that Hebrew word. [26:54] >> Yeah, I do. [26:54] >> That's what they named themselves. But [26:56] the Merits party, which for decades was [27:00] the most left-wing [27:02] party in Israel, really [27:05] failed to reach the threshold, but they [27:07] came really close. They got 3.19% [27:11] of the vote. And the threshold is 3.25. [27:14] They were very, very close to the [27:16] threshold. Now, what does that mean? It [27:17] means that they got about 150,000 votes [27:21] that all went in the trash. [27:24] Now, think about that. Had they got only [27:26] a couple thousand more, they would have [27:27] been entitled to four seats. And that [27:29] means that the total pie of votes that [27:32] is being divided by 120 is very [27:35] different. And it's entirely possible [27:37] that Netanyahu would not have been prime [27:39] minister these last four years and we [27:40] would have had a leftwing government [27:42] >> because you're subtracting a whole bunch [27:43] of votes. that there was also one of the [27:45] Arab parties also got I they didn't get [27:48] as close as merits but they had about [27:49] 2.7% which is a lot of votes too a total [27:53] of close to to around 300,000 votes on [27:56] the on between the the Arab party and [27:58] merits that would clearly not have been [28:01] to the right wing in Israel went in the [28:03] trash and that's what really helped this [28:06] right-wing block come to power. Okay. [28:09] So, that's interesting piece of history. [28:11] And there's been and it's gone the other [28:12] way in the past. In 1992, there were a [28:15] number of right-wing parties that did [28:17] not cross the threshold, which which is [28:20] what enabled the government, the [28:22] left-wing government that started the [28:24] Oslo peace process. [28:27] >> The way they came to power was by the [28:29] right-wing having these small parties [28:31] that didn't make it in. So, it's gone [28:33] both ways over the years. But that's the [28:35] basics of it. Everyone votes for a party [28:37] list. So, I submit my list. I have a [28:40] party. I submit 20 names because I hope [28:43] I'm gonna get 20 seats. I get enough [28:46] votes for six seats. So, the first six [28:48] names on the list, 1 2 3 4 5 6, that's [28:50] who gets in. Okay, that's that's how it [28:53] works. So, where we are right now in the [28:56] election cycle is that tomorrow, [28:59] September 8th, is the day that the [29:01] parties have to submit their party [29:04] lists. and there could be no changes [29:06] after that date. [29:08] >> Tomorrow's the deadline for that. What [29:09] that means in practice is that these [29:12] last few days, this last week or two has [29:15] been has been kind of it's been a crazy [29:18] time in Israeli politics because think [29:20] about what it means. There's all these [29:21] small parties. People have aspirations. [29:24] They have some issue that they're [29:25] running on. There's one guy who's [29:26] running a party that's all about [29:27] economic reform, [29:29] for example. Uh and he's not going to [29:32] get in. But why is he running? He's [29:34] running a campaign because he's trying [29:35] to, you know, get some support. And if [29:38] he could show in the polls that he has [29:40] 1% of the vote or one and a half% of the [29:43] vote, he becomes extremely valuable. And [29:45] then there might be some other smaller [29:47] party that brings him on and they do [29:51] what's called a technical merger. A [29:53] technical merger. It's not really a [29:54] merger of parties, but that that guy who [29:58] can draw maybe, [30:00] you know, part of the threshold, he'll [30:04] join up with another small party and [30:06] maybe together they'll cross the [30:08] threshold and they'll submit a list on [30:11] the deadline to submit lists that will [30:13] include a few people from from his party [30:15] and a few people from the other party. [30:17] So this happened last week. For example, [30:20] the religious Zionist party led by [30:22] Betsalos Smotric, our current finance [30:24] minister [30:26] has been worried about not making it [30:28] across the threshold. And there's good [30:30] internal reasons why. [30:32] >> And there's been very interesting [30:34] reasons why [30:36] in terms of what's going on in the [30:37] religious Zionist community in Israel. [30:39] Even though there's a lot of religious [30:40] Zionists in Israel, [30:42] a lot of them do not vote for the [30:44] religious Zionist party for a whole host [30:45] of reasons. And he was even though he [30:49] got in comfortably in the last in the [30:51] last Knesset in the last Knesset the [30:53] religious party was on a joint list with [30:56] Osma Houdit which is Bengeir's party [30:58] they ran as a joint list exactly for [31:00] this reason Bengeir was worried that he [31:02] wouldn't get in the religious Zionist [31:04] party was also a little bit close they [31:06] got together they ended up doing [31:07] extremely well partially due to the the [31:11] close to 300,000 votes that the left [31:13] threw in the trash but they ended up [31:15] together getting 14 seats. They were a [31:17] big surprise in the election. Seven of [31:19] those seats were religious Zionists. Six [31:22] went to Osmayudit and Bengir. And one [31:25] was a tiny little party that could never [31:26] have gotten in on its own, but it has a [31:28] few thousand people who support it. So [31:30] there was a oneperson faction in this [31:33] last Knesset who was part of the joint [31:35] list of those three parties. Okay, that [31:38] guy's not going to be in this time [31:40] probably [31:41] >> unless today or or maybe I missed it in [31:44] the news. unless he joins up with [31:45] someone at the last minute before the [31:47] lists are submitted. [31:49] >> That's how it works. So, last week [31:51] there's a guy named Mosha Fagan who also [31:55] has a right-wing nationalist party that [31:56] also has some creative ideas. They're a [31:58] very interesting party even though they [31:59] they've never made it into Knesset. He [32:01] has served in Knesset because he was [32:03] once a member of Likood, but uh the [32:05] closest he ever got was like two and a [32:07] two and 3/4% so he didn't get to the 3 [32:10] and a quarter. So he has he has a base [32:13] of supporters but he doesn't get close [32:16] enough. So he didn't even run in the [32:17] last few elections but this time he [32:19] decided to resuscitate his party. He he [32:22] polls at under the threshold but he has [32:25] a significant following. He joined up [32:27] with Batalos Matri's party and in the [32:29] initial polls since their merger it [32:32] looks like they're doing pretty well and [32:33] and there will be a couple of Knesset [32:35] members from Mosha Fageland's party and [32:37] there will be the rest of them will be [32:39] from the religious Zionist party. So [32:41] this is so this unifying of the lists is [32:43] a very important part of the election [32:44] process. The left right now has really [32:47] played the game right. They're heading [32:49] into tomorrow totally unified. They have [32:52] no small parties that that are going to [32:54] waste votes. Everyone's unified. The [32:56] Arab lists are unified. Whereas last [32:59] time one of the Arab parties wasn't in a [33:01] joint list with the other ones and [33:02] therefore their their votes went in the [33:04] trash and you had merits that went in [33:06] the trash. They don't have that anymore. [33:07] the right-wing now is a little bit [33:09] splintered and that's a reflection of [33:11] some of the issues that are going on and [33:13] this is what brings up you mentioned [33:14] earlier there's a brand new political [33:16] party there are there's always some new [33:18] parties but a lot of the new parties in [33:20] Israel traditionally have been kind of [33:22] rearranging [33:24] the same people and renaming new [33:26] coalitions that form so there's so Gadi [33:28] Eisenkot who is the main challenger to [33:31] Netanyahu who's probably going to have [33:32] the largest oppos uh the largest the [33:35] largest non-rightwing party. You can [33:38] call them left or center, but the the [33:40] the challenger to Netanyahu is Gotti [33:42] Eisenhot. And that doesn't mean that [33:44] he's running for prime minister. [33:45] Netanyahu is not running technically not [33:47] running. No one runs for prime minister. [33:49] >> You run as the head of a party slate. [33:51] And then if your party is the largest [33:53] party or the party technically, it's the [33:55] party that there you get the most [33:58] support from other parties to create a [34:00] coalition. [34:02] So you become the prime minister once [34:03] the coalition is formed after the [34:05] election. But that usually takes a month [34:07] or two, a month, six weeks. It could [34:09] take different amounts of time. [34:10] >> Horse trading and figuring out what [34:12] committee [34:12] >> because it's if I join the coalition, [34:15] what do I get for joining the coalition? [34:16] And what power do I have? And that's [34:18] that's what happened. So Gotti Eisenot [34:20] has a new party. He was part of Gans's [34:23] party before, the blue and white party, [34:24] which is now uh defunct. I mean, it [34:27] technically I think he's still running, [34:29] but I think he's going to drop out today [34:32] uh if he hasn't yet. I've heard that [34:34] he's dropping out because Gansce is not [34:35] going to cross the threshold. He might [34:37] join up with someone else. We'll see [34:38] what happens with his party. But Gansce, [34:40] not long ago, he was the challenger to [34:42] Netanyahu. And now Gaddy Eisenkott was [34:45] with him. That party's gone. He started [34:47] a new party, but it's really just this [34:49] has been happening on on the in the [34:51] center left for the last 20 years or so. [34:54] there has been these these uh it's [34:56] always some new brand some new party [34:59] that is an amalgam of other different [35:00] center-left forces and they put and they [35:02] come out with a new party so technically [35:04] Eisenkott's party is new but it's just [35:06] the reorganization of the center left [35:08] that we see every election [35:10] on the right though there's actually a [35:12] legitimately brand new party where no [35:14] one on the list has even ever served in [35:16] Knesset before it's new people and it's [35:18] headed up by a a retired brigadier [35:21] general named Ofer Winter who is [35:25] certainly right-wing. He's he'd [35:27] definitely be part of the right-wing [35:28] block. This is someone who was thrown [35:30] out of his home in in Gushkif at the [35:34] Gaza disengagement in 2005 as a [35:37] >> as a brigadier general. He was [35:39] controversial for being openly uh uh he [35:44] would openly message that the wars we [35:46] were fighting have a religious element [35:47] to them. He there was a scandal in [35:50] Israel in 2014 in the war in Gaza then [35:52] where he he sent a message of prayer and [35:56] Israel to his to his troops and that was [36:00] considered controversial because he was [36:01] bringing religion into the into the [36:03] battlefield. Now it's become more normal [36:06] especially since October 7th. But [36:08] Overwinter is uh is a bit of a fire [36:11] brand and he also is a war hero. He f [36:14] he's even though he's a brigadier [36:15] general, he went down with his gun and [36:17] on October 7th he was fighting down in [36:20] the in the Gaza envelope against the [36:22] terrorists. So he certainly is a [36:24] legitimate war hero. [36:26] But the whole point of his party, his [36:29] whole his main issue is [36:33] the way he puts it is breaking down the [36:37] leadership that was in power on October [36:40] 7th. that he he has said repeatedly that [36:43] he doesn't feel that anyone who was in [36:44] power on October 7th reserves the right [36:47] to remain in power and that I think [36:48] that's a bit of a reductionist position [36:50] but that's what he says but the real [36:52] political issue that his party is going [36:55] to attract people around has to do with [36:58] the draft and in Israel and it's one of [37:01] to me it is the single most painful [37:03] issue is that what are often called in [37:07] English the ultraorththodox or the [37:09] karedim the Jews you see the kidic Jews [37:12] a lot of them or or the Jews with the [37:14] black hats it's hard to explain the [37:16] difference between them and us uh in in [37:19] short form but basically you have this [37:21] population that ideologically is opposed [37:24] to serving in the army they also uh have [37:29] a different theological position on what [37:31] the state of Israel is and that's part [37:34] of why they don't serve but it's not the [37:35] whole story and this is an arrangement [37:37] that goes all the way back to the [37:38] founding of the state of Israel with [37:39] Bengorian [37:40] where he made an arrangement. At the [37:41] time, their community was much smaller [37:43] and didn't seem as significant. And he [37:44] made an arrangement with them that [37:45] anyone who's who is registered as [37:47] studying Torah full-time doesn't have to [37:50] serve in the army. So, you now have a [37:52] community that has built up over [37:53] generations where pretty much uh and [37:56] this is this I'm painting with broad [37:58] strokes here, but pretty much every [37:59] working every every adult male is [38:02] registered as a student and no one [38:03] serves in the army. That's the that's [38:05] the the basics of it. And again, I'm [38:07] overgeneralizing and we'll probably get [38:09] comments people saying I'm [38:10] overgeneralizing, but I just want to [38:11] paint the picture. [38:13] >> And certainly, there are a lot there are [38:15] more and more people in that community [38:16] who are breaking ranks and serving with [38:18] the army. And there's new programs that [38:20] are popping up to bring more of them [38:22] into the army. So, there's a lot of gray [38:24] area there as well. But the issue of [38:26] continuing with this arrangement where [38:29] you have wholesale this massive [38:31] population that is exempt from serving [38:33] in the in the military is a very sore [38:38] it's a very painful issue especially for [38:42] the religious Zionist community. Why? [38:46] For two reasons. The religious Zionist [38:48] community has the highest rate of its [38:50] young people serving in combat units and [38:52] that means that they have their highest [38:53] rate of casualties as well. But also [38:56] ideologically, [38:57] you know, a secular [39:00] Israeli if he hears that these [39:02] ultraorththodox, these Jews, whatever [39:05] say that ideologically, religiously [39:06] they're opposed to serving in the army, [39:08] they're like, "Okay, I don't like that, [39:09] but I I can't argue with their [39:10] theology." But the religious Zionist [39:13] community in in our ideology, not only [39:15] is serving in the Israeli army not [39:18] forbidden, it is it's the highest duty [39:20] you could do religiously to serve in in [39:22] in the army of the nation of Israel. We [39:24] believe that the nation of Isra that the [39:26] the state of Israel is the is the dawn [39:28] of the redemption. It's the it's the in [39:29] gathering of the exiles. And of course, [39:31] we should be fighting. So ideologically [39:34] we, you know, yes, I'm I don't want to [39:37] pontificate too much, but I think it's a [39:40] kind of heresy for them to say that they [39:41] shouldn't be serving in the army for [39:42] religious reasons. And you know, so and [39:46] and a lot of people in my community feel [39:47] that way. So again, it touches on the [39:49] personal. I have my kids fighting on the [39:50] front lines. We have neighbors who are [39:52] lo people are getting injured and killed [39:54] in our communities. And meanwhile, you [39:56] have these guys saying that for [39:57] religious reasons, they're not going to [39:58] serve. It's a there's a lot of anger [40:00] about this. And I've talked to young [40:02] people, a couple of my kids and other [40:04] young people to see where they are in [40:06] our community and they're even angrier [40:08] about it than we are. There's a lot [40:10] there's a lot of resentment and there's [40:11] and this is a big reason why the [40:14] religious Zionist party is bleeding [40:16] votes and and is was worried about [40:18] crossing the threshold even though [40:19] there's so many religious Zionist Jews [40:21] in the country because they've been part [40:24] of the coalition with the Karedi parties [40:27] and have supported the law [40:30] the draft law that would continue the [40:32] special arrangement in some ways slight [40:35] changes to it maybe not so slight [40:37] depending I don't want to get into that [40:38] debate But the fact that they go along [40:40] with this for the sake of keeping the [40:42] coalition together, [40:44] >> even though politically that makes [40:45] perfect sense, I don't think that it's [40:46] bad politics. So when Smutri's party [40:49] says [40:50] >> we're going to we're going to vote for [40:52] that law even though our community hates [40:54] it, [40:55] >> but we need it because if we don't vote [40:57] for that law, the government could fall. [40:59] And if the government falls, then we [41:00] lose all the other good things that [41:02] we're doing. And we don't want to lose [41:03] the right-wing coalition. We don't want [41:05] to bring down BB's coalition. So they go [41:08] along with it, but that angers their [41:11] that angers is is one way of putting it. [41:14] A more political way of putting it is [41:15] that there's a lot of religious Zionist [41:17] Jews in Israel who do not feel that [41:19] their ideology is actually being [41:21] represented because of this issue. So [41:24] Ofer Winter's party, this new party is [41:26] has made this their banner issue [41:30] and they're and and there's certainly [41:32] there are a number of parties that are [41:35] in the center left that are also opposed [41:38] to this arrangement, [41:40] but there's never been a party with a [41:42] guy with a kipon on his head that is [41:44] unequivocally right-wing. And all the [41:46] people on the list are unequivocally [41:47] nationalist and right-wing and most of [41:50] them are religious who are so adamant [41:53] about this issue and it's and that's [41:55] where the support is coming from. That [41:57] doesn't mean that they're going to cross [41:58] the threshold because the voter is also [42:01] smart and people don't want to waste [42:03] their vote. So pe So for the next few [42:05] weeks between now and the and the [42:06] election, [42:08] >> everyone is going to be watching those [42:09] polls really really closely because if [42:13] he if he drops down in the polls, if [42:15] that party drops down where it does not [42:17] look realistic that they'll get in, then [42:20] a lot of people are just going to say, [42:21] "Nice try, but I'm not wasting my vote [42:23] on that." But if he's looking close, [42:26] then we get into dangerous territory. If [42:29] he gets enough votes and crosses the [42:30] threshold, great, he got in. we didn't [42:33] waste votes, but he could cross the [42:35] threshold. The fear was a he could cross [42:38] the threshold and bring down a different [42:40] right-wing party that he's taking votes [42:41] from. Or [42:44] um or in the best case scenario, he [42:46] could cross the threshold and so does [42:49] and so does everyone else. So does [42:50] Smutri's party, right? That's that's [42:53] kind of where we are. So that's the big [42:54] even though the election is still uh you [42:56] know month and a half or more away, [42:59] >> this is this is what's going on in [43:00] Israel right now. Well, and I think it's [43:02] it's really important for our American [43:05] listeners because all of the media that [43:07] I'm seeing is very BBentric and Gotti [43:10] Eisen Cotton setting up this kind of [43:13] dual narrative Pepsi versus Coke. We [43:15] want this. If this happens, this this [43:17] and this will happen. This could be the [43:20] next prime minister, etc. You have a [43:22] little bit around the October 7th. I've [43:25] read uh a bunch of uh articles on that [43:28] that that's been a major issue. But [43:30] people need to understand that Israel is [43:33] 80 85% to the right when it comes to, [43:38] you know, self-defense, when it comes to [43:40] the military, when it comes to foreign [43:41] policy. All of these players that we're [43:44] talking about are all in fairly lock [43:48] step with one another as to how Israel [43:49] should proceed. the things that's [43:51] differentiating and where the big issues [43:53] are are an issue like this with the [43:56] draft that is unfamiliar to Americans. [43:59] It's a internal issues. It's economic [44:01] issues. It's how are we going to do uh [44:04] this that and the other thing. So, uh [44:06] Peso, just help our listeners [44:09] understand. We we've talked about a [44:10] couple of the players, but we have to [44:12] talk about uh Prime Minister Netanyahu. [44:14] Obviously, he's coming into this. Lood. [44:17] Uh, everything I saw puts them at about [44:20] 24, 23, 22 seats. Is that accurate? Is [44:24] that your kind of feel on the ground? I [44:26] know polling can be different and does [44:28] Prime Minister Netanyahu have a chance [44:30] to continue being uh prime minister. [44:32] Will there be a shared thing? How does [44:34] how's that going to play out in your [44:36] opinion? [44:37] >> Okay. Um, so just a couple sentences [44:39] about polling in Israel versus polling [44:42] in America. [44:44] And I did a video about this on this on [44:46] my channel and those of you watching on [44:48] YouTube, but it's a while ago. [44:50] >> Uh if you're not watching on YouTube, [44:52] you need to watch on YouTube. If you're [44:54] listening to this, go over subscribe. [44:56] Peso is really close to 100,000 and [44:58] [laughter] we need to get him 100,000 [45:00] subscribers. So go over there. [45:01] >> I might be there by the time by the time [45:03] in a couple days from now I'll get [45:04] there. I think I'm at 99,500 [45:07] subscribers. [45:08] >> Go over and subscribe. If you're just [45:09] listening on Apple Podcast, subscribe. [45:11] >> Thank you, Doug. Thank you for the plug [45:13] for that. But uh polling in Israel is is [45:20] terrible. [45:22] Let me explain. [45:24] In the United States, [45:27] it is standard practice [45:31] that when a poll is released, [45:35] the cross tabs are made public. The [45:37] crosstabs of a poll is this report that [45:41] has every question that was asked. It [45:43] has all the demographic information, the [45:46] geographic information, everything is in [45:48] there. So you can actually know what the [45:51] anomalies are, where the inefficiencies [45:53] are. So let's say you see a polling [45:54] number when you read the crosstabs and [45:57] then you say, "Hey, wait a second. you [45:59] know, the percentage of people in this [46:00] poll who are, let's say, over the age of [46:02] 60 is out of whack with the actual [46:05] general population. And therefore, I [46:07] have to make an adjustment. Like, you [46:08] can see things in the poll. You can tell [46:10] what was actually asked, who was [46:11] actually asked the questions [46:14] and what the and what the previous [46:15] questions were, what the exact wording [46:17] of the questions were in the poll. You [46:18] see everything in the cross tabs. It's [46:20] the actual poll. And this is universal. [46:22] Go to any polling agency. Anytime you [46:25] see a poll in the news, Doug, if you go [46:26] to the website of that polling company, [46:27] you'll be able to download the cross [46:28] tabs in Israel. No polling company [46:32] publishes cross tabs. [46:35] And I discovered this the hard way. I [46:38] was looking at a poll. I was reading [46:40] some article in the paper and there was [46:41] a poll and it was a graph and it said [46:42] the poll. It said the name of the [46:43] polling company. And I found it [46:45] [clears throat] really interesting and I [46:46] wanted to see the cross tabs. I wanted [46:47] to learn more about this poll and see [46:49] what other questions they asked. And I [46:51] contacted the polling agency. I called [46:52] them up [46:54] and I said, "You know, I think this is [46:58] an amazing poll. I'd like to, you know, [47:00] can you can I see the cross tabs?" And [47:02] this, she goes, "What are you talking [47:03] about?" I'm like, I explained what they [47:05] were. She goes, "No, no, we don't we [47:07] don't make that public." [47:09] And it's true of all the polling [47:10] agencies in Israel. So, it is impossible [47:13] to know what is actually going on. For [47:14] example, I saw a poll in the paper in [47:16] Israel about a month ago and at the [47:19] bottom in the tiny tiny fine print it [47:22] said that the poll was conducted online. [47:24] What's the problem? Well, mo most [47:29] ultraorththodox Jews don't have [47:30] internet. [47:31] >> Sure. [47:32] >> So, you've already subtracted them. Not [47:35] to mention other people, there's a lot [47:36] of in the religious Zionist community [47:37] who also don't have internet in their [47:39] homes. And just by saying it was done [47:41] online, that already told me that the [47:42] poll was worthless. right? [47:44] >> Because this massive percentage of the [47:46] population is not even connected. So [47:48] that's an example. So polling in Israel, [47:51] so there's a structural problem there, [47:53] but also historically. [47:55] And here in that same video, I went back [47:58] a few election cycles. And I did my [48:01] research and I showed that polling in [48:03] Israel pre-election day always is [48:06] slanted to the left. The result of the [48:10] election always tilts to the right of [48:11] the polls. never fails. It's been this [48:15] way consistently, election after [48:17] election after election. [48:19] >> Interesting. Um, and another another [48:21] interesting uh idiosyncrasy, and this [48:23] isn't necessarily an idiosyncrasy of the [48:25] polling agencies, but it might be an [48:27] idiosyncrasy of the Israeli electorate. [48:30] And then I'll answer your question about [48:31] Netanyahu, is that small parties, small, [48:35] especially new parties, brand new [48:38] parties, always poll better than they do [48:42] on election day. [48:45] They always pull better than they do on [48:47] election day. This happened with Natali [48:48] Bennett's party. This happened that guy [48:50] Fagan I told you about who didn't get in [48:52] and now he's joined up in one in the [48:54] election that he that he got less than [48:56] 3%. That was the best he ever did. He [48:59] was polling in the polling pre-election. [49:01] They were talking about how he'd be the [49:02] surprise of the election. People were [49:04] saying he might get six or seven seats. [49:05] He didn't even get the minimum. [49:07] >> Wow. [49:08] >> Why does that happen? [49:10] So I what the pattern tells me and just [49:13] anecdotally I think that these new [49:16] parties excite people. They interest [49:18] people. People are intrigued by them. [49:20] And when a pollster calls them, they [49:23] might say, "Yeah, you know, I'm [49:24] interested in this guy. Yeah, it looks, [49:25] you know, winter looks interesting to [49:26] me. Oh, Fageland looks interesting to [49:27] me." But when push comes to shove and [49:29] they go into the polling station, they [49:31] don't want to waste their vote. And a [49:33] lot of Israeli voters come right back to [49:36] this to the sure thing. they come back [49:38] to the established parties on election [49:40] day. That's another pattern I've noticed [49:42] over the years. Okay? So, this is my [49:44] analysis for what it's worth. And again, [49:46] I'm happy to have comments in this video [49:49] uh who are going to attack me and say [49:51] that I'm wrong. That's fine. I I stand [49:52] by what I'm saying. Now, to Netanyahu, [49:57] I believe that Netanyahu will be prime [49:59] minister again. I don't believe that [50:00] number you told me 22 24. I think the [50:02] Likud is going to get closer to 30. [50:04] Personally, that's what I that's what I [50:06] believe. [50:07] And I'm not saying this out of cheering [50:09] for him. I I haven't even decided which [50:11] party I'm voting for yet. Being full [50:13] disclosure, being honest, I have not yet [50:15] decided. There's a few options for me. [50:18] Um, but I I do believe that Netanyahu [50:21] will be prime minister. Uh, I don't [50:23] believe that uh, you know, I I don't [50:26] believe that there's that the math works [50:28] out that he'll be able to create a [50:29] coalition. [50:31] U, I'm sorry, that that Eisenkot will be [50:33] able to create a coalition. I I don't [50:35] see how it works out. Especially [50:38] if [50:40] now the one thing that could upset this [50:42] is if winter runs if winter goes all the [50:45] way and he looks like he is and doesn't [50:47] join up with anyone else which unless [50:49] something happens later today or [50:51] tomorrow morning because they have to [50:52] submit there's only a few hours during [50:54] the day tomorrow to submit their lists. [50:56] So Winter looks like he's running. If he [50:58] runs that party and he gets close and [51:01] doesn't get in, but also in the process [51:03] brings down Smutri's party and both of [51:06] them [51:08] >> fall below the threshold and we have and [51:10] we're like the left was in 2022, that [51:12] could that's the only recipe I see for [51:18] Netanyahu not being the next prime [51:19] minister. And that is it is a [51:22] possibility. I'm not saying but it seems [51:24] unlikely to me. uh and you know for some [51:26] of the reasons I've stated but I believe [51:28] that Netanyahu was going to be the next [51:30] prime minister if that's what people are [51:31] worried about. But you're absolutely [51:32] right Doug when it comes to the [51:34] questions of how to deal with Hamas, how [51:37] to deal withah, how to deal with Iran, [51:39] there's actually very little [51:42] uh there's very little disagreement [51:44] across the board and we see that like [51:46] the the criticism of Netanyahu from the [51:49] left and from the right over these last [51:51] few months has kind of been the same. [51:52] like there's there's not a lot and and [51:54] in the campaign what's been interesting [51:56] in the early going is that when Eisenot [51:58] who's running against Netanyahu [52:00] ostensibly and he's a former general [52:01] he's a former chief of staff when he's [52:03] asked in interviews what would you do [52:05] differently from Netanyahu in terms of [52:08] kamas you know Gaza Judea whatever it is [52:13] it actually is hurting him when he's [52:15] asked that question because [52:18] he can't really come up with anything [52:19] and what he comes up with that he would [52:21] do differently seems unreal realistic. [52:23] So it's actually it's which is [52:25] interesting. So for that reason, [52:26] Netanyahu has every it's in Netanyahu's [52:29] interest to make the handling of the war [52:32] the number one issue in the ele in the [52:34] election cycle. Now we get into the [52:36] issues. Netanyahu wants the biggest [52:38] issue to be that like every election [52:41] campaign is a battle over what's the [52:43] number one issue and and can you get the [52:45] number one issue to be the issue that [52:46] makes you look good. Netanyahu wants [52:48] that wants the number one issue to be [52:50] who do you trust talking to Trump? Who [52:53] do you trust making decisions about [52:54] Iran? Who do you trust making decisions [52:57] about Gaza? And and that no one has a [53:00] better has a better game plan than [53:03] Netanyahu. That's Netanyahu's campaign [53:05] in a nutshell. He wants that to be the [53:07] number one issue. [53:09] U people like Winter want the number one [53:13] issue to be the draft of the of the [53:15] Karedi parties. [53:16] That's what he wants it to be. Smutish [53:19] wants the number one issue to be the [53:21] threat in Judea and Samaria of the [53:23] Palestinian Authority and the need to [53:25] strengthen settlement in Judea and [53:26] Samaria. I don't think it's a winning [53:28] issue. [53:29] I care about that issue, but I don't [53:31] think it's a winning issue. But if you [53:32] go to the website of the Religious [53:34] Zionist Party, it's all in Hebrew, but [53:35] if you go to that website, it it looks [53:37] almost like there's only one issue until [53:38] you scroll down and you see the other [53:39] issues on their platform. But the but [53:41] the website is really dedicated to this [53:43] idea of of settlement. [53:46] That's what it's about. So, everyone's [53:48] got the issues. Everyone's pushing the [53:50] narrative in their direction. And and [53:52] this makes things a little bit difficult [53:54] for Eisenhot. So, what's the default [53:57] position for Eisenkot, the center-left [53:59] parties, the opposition parties, the [54:01] parties that want to unseat Netanyahu, [54:03] they've basically been left with that [54:05] their only real issue is we have to get [54:07] rid of Netanyahu. And negative campaigns [54:10] aren't the greatest. They don't run that [54:11] well. They sound good when you're [54:13] screaming on a talk show, but they don't [54:16] generally translate into electoral [54:18] success. And for people who are al who [54:20] are still skeptical about what I said [54:21] about polling and think that Eisenhot [54:23] will still do very well, I'll remind you [54:25] a couple election cycles ago where [54:27] Herzog, who's the current president, was [54:30] was leading the Labor Party and everyone [54:32] was saying that he's going to be the [54:33] next prime minister and in the polls it [54:35] said he was ahead and it was not even [54:37] close. [54:39] So, and that's just one of the data [54:41] points when I say to you that Israeli [54:43] polling always skews to the left. If [54:45] there's people here who are into [54:46] betting, I I never I don't even know [54:49] what poly market really is. I've only [54:51] heard about it and people told me what [54:52] it is that people bet on things and that [54:54] and people use that as a way of [54:55] prognosticating. I don't really know [54:57] anything about it. I've never looked at [54:58] it. I've never been to the website, but [54:59] I understand that on Poly Market and one [55:01] there's another one that's similar, [55:03] >> Falci. And there's a couple of them. [55:04] Yeah. Fouchi that they have Eisenot [55:07] beating Netanyahu. [55:10] I'm comfortable telling you you want to [55:12] make some money, go bet on BB on Poly [55:14] Market [laughter] because I I I don't I [55:16] don't see any way that Eisenkott is [55:18] going to be prime minister. Maybe I'm [55:19] being polyianish because I'm right-wing, [55:21] but that's that's the way I see things. [55:22] I think again to me the only way that [55:24] Isaac becomes prime minister is if two [55:28] right-wing parties don't make it across [55:29] the threshold but get a lot of votes and [55:32] destroy a lot of votes on on the right [55:34] and that he and that Eisenhawk can [55:36] somehow put together a coalition that [55:38] does not include Arab parties because [55:41] this country has no appetite for a [55:42] coalition that's going to include Arab [55:44] parties right now although they might [55:46] try to do it anyway. It it's it's going [55:48] to get interesting. The story is so far [55:50] from over. Election day is only one it [55:52] it's only the most important piece of a [55:55] puzzle, but it's not the last piece of [55:56] the puzzle. It's not the first piece of [55:58] the puzzle. We're in the middle of the [55:59] story. [55:59] >> So, that is super helpful, and I hope [56:02] you're paying attention. I hope you're [56:03] praying. But, Pesak, one scenario we [56:06] didn't talk about was what happens if [56:08] neither Eisenot nor Netanyahu or anybody [56:11] else can reach that 61 vote threshold, [56:14] that majority, that coalition that we [56:16] keep talking about. [56:18] Well, then things get a little bit [56:19] complicated. Uh there are different [56:21] attempts that are made. I think we'll [56:22] talk about that down the road when we [56:24] talk about how the coalition is formed [56:26] because it does get a little bit [56:27] complicated. But the short answer is [56:30] if no coalition gets formed after a [56:33] certain amount of tries and time passes [56:35] and there is a deadline to it, we go to [56:37] another election and another election, [56:39] another election. A few years ago, we [56:40] had four of those until we finally got a [56:42] coalition. And during that time, it just [56:44] means that the existing prime minister [56:46] remains prime minister. But it's more [56:47] complicated than that. We'll get into [56:49] that in a separate discussion down the [56:51] road. We have a few months of this ahead [56:52] of us, Doug. [56:54] >> Excellent. Well, really appreciate that [56:57] process, analysis, all of it. And I hope [57:00] you enjoyed this podcast today. If you [57:03] enjoyed this episode, please like, rate, [57:05] share this podcast, subscribe on [57:07] Patreon, come on over to Facebook, like [57:09] our page, join our group, and make sure [57:10] you go to Pace Aquiliki and subscribe. [57:12] Let's get them to 100,000 today on [57:15] YouTube. And we love connecting with our [57:17] shoulder-to-shoulder family.
