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Неутешительные прогнозы про будущее программистов в США и в мире
Неутешительные прогнозы про будущее программистов в США и в мире
Программист из Сан-Франциско
75.7K views • 1.9K likes • 1.0K comments
3 weeks ago • 9:06 min
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Transcript
[00:02]
So, hello, dear friends. Your
[00:05]
programmer from San Francisco is here.
[00:08]
Riding in a driverless car, as you can
[00:12]
see. There you go. Yeah. And what did I
[00:18]
want to say? That I'm currently coming
[00:21]
from a bar. We had a conference, so all
[00:26]
our developers flew in from across the
[00:30]
country. Well, almost, let's put it
[00:34]
that way. And then we have another one
[00:38]
in a month. So, they gathered in the
[00:42]
evening, and I thought I should join
[00:45]
them to listen in, you know, warm my
[00:48]
ears, and find out what programmers are
[00:51]
thinking. And so I'm returning from the
[00:55]
bar, where everyone was sitting,
[00:58]
drinking beer, and talking about things
[01:01]
they don't usually say at work, don't
[01:04]
say out loud, but whisper in each
[01:07]
other's ears. So I can tell you a
[01:13]
little bit about what's in the air in
[01:17]
San Francisco, guys. And what’s in
[01:22]
the air in San Francisco is. If you
[01:28]
know what anxiety is, well, I don't
[01:37]
envy you, as they say. Yeah. Well,
[01:40]
basically, anxiety is nervousness. Yeah
[01:44]
. Nervousness about what will happen to
[01:49]
programmers, because I supposedly work
[01:53]
at an AI company, and even in an AI
[01:58]
company, programmers are a bit on edge,
[02:02]
I'll tell you, thinking about what will
[02:07]
happen in a month, two, a year, two, or
[02:12]
three. Yeah. And the main leitmotif of
[02:18]
these conversations is what will happen
[02:21]
to programmers in terms of being
[02:24]
replaced by artificial intelligence.
[02:28]
Yeah. On one hand, the guys say: "Yes,
[02:31]
it's good when you're a programmer at
[02:34]
an AI company, not at some, for example
[02:37]
, healthcare company." Yeah. But on the
[02:42]
other hand, they say we have about 8-9
[02:46]
months, because job security will only
[02:51]
get worse, those are the forecasts.
[02:57]
Meaning it will be harder to find a job
[02:59]
. And I personally feel this from
[03:03]
conversations with other friends of
[03:06]
mine who are searching and can't find
[03:10]
anything yet. Some have been out of
[03:13]
work for 2 years, for some, the second
[03:15]
year has started. Well, they don't seem
[03:19]
to be losing hope, but they keep
[03:21]
looking for work. Yeah. My job is fine,
[03:24]
I'm okay, but the conversations are
[03:29]
nonetheless exactly like that. And AI
[03:32]
programmers say that job security will
[03:35]
be very poor, because it’s becoming
[03:39]
easier to write and create programs. So
[03:45]
I ask them, like, one guy I smoke with
[03:49]
from work, he says: "We're like
[03:53]
software engineers now and so on." Yeah
[03:58]
. But I haven't used the word "engineer
[04:01]
" in a long time. I use "conductor."
[04:05]
That is, this term was introduced by us
[04:09]
for the first time on our streams. We
[04:12]
sort of "coined" it, what you call it,
[04:16]
right? I said that these are software
[04:21]
orchestrators now, meaning not
[04:23]
programmers, not those who write code,
[04:26]
but precisely software orchestrators.
[04:30]
Yeah. And Alex Korish, our regular
[04:33]
listener and participant, most
[04:35]
importantly. He says: "That turns out
[04:39]
to be like a software conductor." And I
[04:42]
say: "Yes, exactly, a conductor." Yeah.
[04:45]
And when the conversation came up today
[04:48]
about, ah, the engineering component, I
[04:55]
asked: "How much of this engineering
[04:58]
component is actually in our work?"
[05:03]
Yeah. You asked the question: "Is this
[05:06]
engineering component, like, shrinking
[05:09]
or not shrinking?" Meaning, is it
[05:12]
compressing? Yeah. And we agreed that
[05:14]
yes, it is shrinking on one hand. On
[05:18]
the other hand, what we do is becoming
[05:23]
more powerful; our engineering is
[05:28]
decreasing, and we're becoming like
[05:33]
code gardeners, right, tending to the
[05:39]
code. And our impact is increasing. So
[05:47]
to speak. Yeah. Well, we were talking
[05:51]
about engineers at various large
[05:54]
corporations, like OpenAI, Anthropic,
[05:58]
those who burn a large amount of tokens
[06:02]
. There are guys there who burn $
[06:08]
10,000 worth of tokens a day. Yeah. And
[06:16]
there was this idea that there used to
[06:20]
be guys called Equity Managers, well,
[06:24]
actually they still exist, people who
[06:28]
manage capital. And now, most likely,
[06:33]
there will be guys who manage tokens.
[06:37]
And we'll have a sort of scale by which
[06:46]
they will measure engineers. Like, how
[06:50]
many tokens you burn, how many you
[06:53]
manage. Well, by analogy, with how much
[06:58]
capital you deal with, right? How much
[07:03]
capital you are entrusted with? Yeah.
[07:06]
So, moving forward, it will most likely
[07:09]
develop in this direction. Yeah. But we
[07:14]
all agreed that programming has become
[07:18]
easier. And one guy, we were having a
[07:24]
conversation, like, there was this
[07:27]
question: "What are you grateful for?"
[07:32]
Well, like, what are you thankful for
[07:34]
or who are you thankful to? Well, kind
[07:37]
of in general. Yeah. And he said: "Guys
[07:43]
, you see, over the last 20 years, for
[07:47]
the last 20 years this is the only, or
[07:52]
rather, the first job where I feel
[07:56]
happy." Meaning, I am happy with what I
[08:00]
am doing. And why am I happy? Because I
[08:04]
don't suffer, I don't code, I don't try
[08:08]
to force computers to do something;
[08:11]
instead, I talk to LLMs, and they do it
[08:15]
for me. I conduct them, I orchestrate
[08:20]
them. And on one hand, that's good, of
[08:25]
course, the work has become easier; on
[08:29]
the other hand, it's bad, because the
[08:33]
work has become easier. That's how it
[08:37]
is. Those are the thoughts I wanted to
[08:40]
share with you. Write what you think
[08:45]
about this, and what awaits us in the
[08:48]
future. I won't torture you for long.
[08:53]
Anyway, this was a programmer from San
[08:57]
Francisco with you. Subscribe to the
[09:01]
channel and take care, dear friends.
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