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Is Israel heading for political deadlock?
Is Israel heading for political deadlock?
i24NEWS English
12.0K views • 95 likes • 22 comments
1 week ago • 6:48 min
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Transcript
[00:00]
Israel votes in just over 2 weeks and
[00:03]
there is as always much robust debate
[00:06]
over which parties could govern
[00:09]
together. Messaging, mixed messaging,
[00:11]
retraction of messaging all part of the
[00:14]
game. Yair Lapid saying he will not join
[00:17]
another unity government with Benjamin
[00:20]
Netanyahu. Naftali Bennett is also
[00:22]
insisting the veteran prime minister
[00:25]
cannot remain in government after
[00:27]
walking back remarks suggesting he could
[00:30]
serve as a minister. Meanwhile,
[00:33]
right-wing candidate Ofer Winter is
[00:36]
accusing Benjamin Netanyahu of
[00:38]
undermining his party which is
[00:40]
struggling to cross the electoral
[00:43]
threshold. And President Isaac Herzog
[00:46]
says he will do everything in his power
[00:49]
to avoid repeat elections and to see a
[00:52]
stable government formed after the
[00:55]
coming polls on the 27th of this month.
[01:00]
So, for more on all the latest messaging
[01:03]
and lack of messaging, it's a pleasure
[01:06]
to welcome to the studio political
[01:07]
analyst Gil Hoffman. Gil, thank you so
[01:10]
much. So, it's often, especially in the
[01:13]
final stretch before
[01:15]
people are going to cast their ballots
[01:17]
that you hear a lot of rhetoric,
[01:19]
messaging, and then retraction of
[01:21]
messaging. Just bring us up to speed on
[01:24]
which block, if any, is able to
[01:26]
realistically form a government?
[01:29]
>> No one can form a government right now,
[01:30]
Benita, according to all polls. Uh and
[01:33]
that's why you would have to think very
[01:35]
creatively. Uh
[01:37]
right now it's possible that there are
[01:39]
politicians who are lying.
[01:41]
>> Really?
[01:41]
>> No, it it has happened before. Uh you've
[01:44]
got politicians saying that they won't
[01:46]
sit with Netanyahu, that they won't sit
[01:47]
with Likud, which is a different thing.
[01:49]
Lapid Lapid said he wouldn't sit with
[01:50]
Netanyahu, not that he wouldn't sit with
[01:51]
Likud. Okay? Uh you've got politicians
[01:54]
saying that they won't sit with Arabs.
[01:55]
Well, what what does that mean? There
[01:57]
are different definitions of what it
[01:58]
means to sit with Arabs. You've got uh
[02:01]
different parties that are competing
[02:02]
over who can be most anti-Haredi, but
[02:04]
that doesn't mean they wouldn't pass the
[02:05]
bill that would ultimately help the
[02:07]
Haredim. So, there's a lot of games to
[02:09]
play, and if I weren't uh
[02:13]
on a television show that wants people
[02:15]
to watch the television show, I would
[02:17]
tell you to turn it off until October
[02:18]
28th.
[02:19]
>> Well, we certainly don't want our
[02:21]
viewers to do that. That is not the
[02:23]
advice we need people to be
[02:25]
>> [laughter]
[02:25]
>> eating. That said, you are here to help
[02:27]
explain realistically what is at play
[02:30]
here, because we saw in previous
[02:32]
elections that political leaders made
[02:35]
promises vowing not to sit with certain
[02:37]
parties. And then, when it came to the
[02:39]
crunch, and that was the only route to
[02:42]
get to a coalition, they changed their
[02:44]
minds. So, give us a sense of what is at
[02:46]
stake here. Realistically, which of the
[02:49]
smaller parties could make all the
[02:51]
difference when it comes to setting up a
[02:53]
government down the line after 27th of
[02:56]
October.
[02:56]
>> So, we know that the turnout is usually
[02:58]
around 70% among Jews, whereas the Arab
[03:01]
vote fluctuates every election, up and
[03:03]
down, depending on how well the Arab
[03:05]
constituents believe that their members
[03:08]
of Knesset serve them.
[03:09]
Uh and so, that's something that can
[03:11]
make a very big difference, cuz the more
[03:13]
Arabs vote, the fewer votes there are
[03:17]
that could be used to build a coalition.
[03:20]
Uh
[03:20]
so, actually, the larger the Arab
[03:22]
turnout, the better it is for Netanyahu
[03:25]
this time. Uh whereas the
[03:27]
larger the Arab turnout, the worse it is
[03:28]
for Eisenkot. Um
[03:31]
votes that cross the threshold and don't
[03:32]
cross the threshold, there
[03:34]
there are two parties that are teetering
[03:36]
right now, Ofer Winter's party and the
[03:39]
uh party of Yoaz Hendel, together with
[03:41]
Einat Wilf and Professor Zaliha. Um it's
[03:45]
mostly pro-Netanyahu people that are
[03:48]
voting for Winter, and they're mostly
[03:51]
anti-Netanyahu people who are voting for
[03:53]
this Meretz and Likud party. And if they
[03:56]
don't pass the 3.25% threshold, it's
[03:59]
about 170,000 votes,
[04:02]
um then that's a lot that that gets
[04:07]
thrown away. They don't get distributed
[04:09]
to another party the way excess votes
[04:11]
beyond the mandate do. They get thrown
[04:12]
away. And
[04:14]
that would be devastating for one of the
[04:17]
political camps, and we're not going to
[04:18]
know until the end. There's pressure on
[04:20]
Benny Gantz to leave the government.
[04:21]
There was a report tonight there was a a
[04:23]
report tonight on i24 in Hebrew on
[04:26]
pressuring one of the renegade
[04:28]
ultra-Orthodox
[04:29]
parties to vote to
[04:31]
leave the election before the October
[04:32]
27th.
[04:34]
Um they're all a factor. Every vote
[04:36]
counts.
[04:37]
>> President Isaac Herzog saying very
[04:40]
clearly he wants to avoid another
[04:41]
election. I think many would be on the
[04:43]
same page, but realistically, what can
[04:45]
he do to make sure that that doesn't
[04:47]
happen?
[04:48]
>> A pardon.
[04:49]
Uh is was something that he has at his
[04:51]
disposal.
[04:53]
Um if you could make Netanyahu leave,
[04:55]
um even though the this week's headlines
[04:58]
might have been actually positive for
[04:59]
Netanyahu in his trial, um
[05:02]
I haven't seen a single party say they
[05:04]
won't sit with Likud.
[05:06]
They're saying they won't sit with
[05:07]
Netanyahu.
[05:09]
And if uh you could have a rotation in
[05:11]
the Prime Minister's office where
[05:13]
Eisenkot goes first and the new leader
[05:16]
of Likud would be elected goes second,
[05:18]
uh that could be a route for a stable
[05:20]
government, though the Likud has never
[05:21]
agreed to do that ever
[05:23]
before.
[05:24]
Uh what Lapid was ruling out was the
[05:28]
president theory, uh which is that Gadi
[05:30]
Eisenkot would go second and that
[05:34]
Netanyahu would go first as prime
[05:35]
minister, and Eisenkot is supposed to
[05:37]
trust him because he would support
[05:40]
Netanyahu to become president 2 years
[05:43]
into the term replacing Isaac Herzog
[05:44]
when his term ends. So
[05:47]
uh apparently that that idea is on the
[05:49]
way down, but there are all kinds of
[05:51]
ways the president can interfere.
[05:54]
Who he gives the chance to form a
[05:56]
government to first or second goes a
[05:58]
long way. That's why Eisenkot is trying
[06:00]
to present himself as the his party as
[06:03]
needing to be large and larger than
[06:06]
Netanyahu's in order to get the first
[06:07]
chance to form a government. The
[06:09]
president has more power than people
[06:10]
think.
[06:11]
>> Very briefly earlier on in the show we
[06:13]
were reporting that Haritz is saying
[06:16]
that Benjamin Netanyahu is reportedly
[06:17]
offering to help Saudi Arabia against
[06:20]
the Houthis. As we know, the Houthis are
[06:22]
bombarding Riyadh and surrounds. Very
[06:25]
briefly, how would a message like that
[06:27]
or a stance like that help the Prime
[06:30]
Minister in the lead-up to voting day
[06:32]
briefly?
[06:33]
>> The Prime Minister needs to be seen as a
[06:34]
positive force in international
[06:36]
diplomacy. He intended to make peace
[06:38]
with the Saudis. October 6th, he was
[06:40]
moving full speed ahead and Hamas got in
[06:42]
the way.
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Is Israel heading for political deadlock?
