Transcript [00:00] Hey everyone. So in this video I want to [00:02] talk about the Iran Russia relationship. [00:06] You know we've known for a long time [00:08] it's been one of these uh axioms of the [00:12] Middle East that Iran has two big [00:16] allies, Russia and China. And the Russia [00:18] China Iran axis is this is this big [00:21] three-way alliance. There are strategic [00:24] partnerships, strategic agreements that [00:25] have been signed over the last few years [00:27] between Iran and Russia, between Iran [00:29] and China, between China and Russia, [00:31] right? They all have these, this is the [00:33] alliance, and Russia and China are [00:34] buying Iranian oil, and there's a lot of [00:36] trade that goes back and forth between [00:38] them. The Chinese have been helping the [00:40] Iranians break the US blockade. We've [00:43] talked about that over the months going [00:44] all the way back to April and May, that [00:46] the Chinese were shipping things [00:47] overland through Pakistan. So in this [00:50] video I want to talk about the the Iran [00:52] Russia relationship and then I'm going [00:54] to make a second video uh that is going [00:56] to talk about the Iran China [00:58] relationship. So it's kind of like part [01:00] one and part two because I think that [01:03] over the course of the last few weeks [01:06] something is shifting significantly in [01:08] that three-way alliance. Okay? And [01:10] that's what I want to I want to show you [01:12] in this video. So this one's about [01:14] Russia. Let's take a look at the [01:16] headlines. Okay? Okay, so here's a [01:18] headline. This is from today. Iranian [01:21] Russian presidents discuss e expanding [01:24] economic strategic cooperation. [01:27] Iranian president Masud Peshan and his [01:29] Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin read [01:31] met in Turkmenistan on Thursday, that's [01:33] today to discuss expanding bilateral [01:37] economic and strategic cooperation. [01:40] The meeting took place on the sidelines [01:42] of the Commonwealth of Independent [01:43] States leader summit and a Caspian C [01:45] environmental summit. According to IRNA, [01:47] the two leaders reviewed progress in [01:49] bilateral relations and discuss [01:51] strengthening cooperation in key sectors [01:53] including energy, agriculture, [01:55] transportation, and trade. They [01:57] emphasized the need to accelerate the [01:58] finalization and completion of joint [02:00] projects and reaffirmed their commitment [02:02] to expanding comprehensive cooperation [02:04] in line with both countries national [02:06] interests and regional stability. Okay. [02:10] And so that's from that was from Turkish [02:12] state media from Anderaloo. That's [02:15] Turkish state media. But now let's go to [02:16] Iranian state media. Now here's what led [02:18] me to make the make this video and the [02:20] one and part two about China that's [02:22] coming. I read Iranian state media every [02:25] day. And one of [02:29] one of the most important ways to read [02:31] media carefully, especially propaganda [02:34] from from state media, from totalitarian [02:38] regimes, [02:39] is pattern recognition. To look at, you [02:43] know, there are certain patterns, [02:44] certain recurring themes that they [02:46] constantly come back to, certain drum [02:49] beats that they're always hammering. So [02:52] you'll see a consistent flow of certain [02:54] types of headlines and noticing changes [02:58] in what they say and how they talk. So [03:01] what I noticed over the last few days, [03:03] first I'll just show you the headlines, [03:04] then we'll go through some of the [03:05] details of these pieces to see see what [03:07] they're doing. But look at these [03:09] headlines. Iran and Russian presidents [03:11] meet in Turk Manistan. That's the same [03:14] that's the Iranian coverage of the same [03:16] story we saw. Now this is also Iranian [03:19] state media from a few days ago. Why is [03:21] Moscow standing by Thran? This was a [03:23] front page piece, a long analytical [03:25] piece about about why Moscow and Thran, [03:29] why Iran and Russia have this wonderful [03:31] relationship and all the ways that it's [03:32] a great relationship. That's the entire [03:34] point of the piece. And then we have [03:36] this one. Russia welcomes diplomatic [03:38] efforts to reduce tensions, offers Iran [03:41] assistance. That's from yesterday. And [03:43] then we have this one, Russatam [03:45] reviewing new sites for nuclear power [03:47] plants in Iran. That's the Russian [03:49] nuclear uh nuclear u uh corporation u [03:55] the Russian nuclear corporation state [03:57] nuclear corporation talking about you [03:59] know rebuilding Iranian nuclear sites [04:02] and then we have this one this is also [04:04] from today uh Iran eyes up to 20 billion [04:07] in exports to Russia right so I I I was [04:11] looking at these headlines I was start I [04:13] was seeing over the course of the last [04:15] couple of days lots of headlines about [04:17] Russia about how wonderful Russia is and [04:19] these and look at this picture. They're [04:21] they're shaking hands. There's news [04:23] coverage in both countries about the [04:24] meeting. And it reminded me about the [04:27] fact that um [04:31] that a couple weeks ago at the Shanghai [04:34] Cooperation Organization meeting [04:40] Xihinping Xihinping is I think it's [04:42] probably pronounced Xihinping [04:45] would he refused to be photographed with [04:47] Peshan. He met with him very briefly and [04:50] he refused to be seen with him in [04:53] public. There was no mention of the fact [04:56] that he met with him in Chinese state [04:57] media. It was only mentioned by the [05:00] Iranians. So I was thinking about that [05:02] contrast and I was like, "Wow, what's [05:04] this signal about Russia here?" Okay, so [05:07] let's let's take a look at at how the [05:09] Iranians are spinning their relationship [05:10] with Russia because one of the I talked [05:13] about patterns in their in their media. [05:16] One of the patterns in Iranian state [05:17] media, one of the one of the standard [05:19] drum beats is to talk about how [05:21] wonderful their relationship is with [05:22] their powerful allies. So every time [05:25] Abasar Raki, their foreign minister, has [05:27] a conversation or Peslan, the president [05:29] has a conversation with some world [05:30] leader, they'll talk about how they had [05:32] a conversation with him. But especially [05:34] they love to stress the fact that they [05:36] have powerful friends. And one of the [05:39] constants over the last six months has [05:41] been reminding us of how strong their [05:43] relationship is with Russia and China. [05:46] And now I'm starting to see these [05:47] headlines all in the span of about a [05:48] week, week and a half that are all about [05:51] how wonderful the relationship is with [05:53] Russia, not China. Okay, we'll get to [05:56] the China side in the next video. Let's [05:58] go through the Russia piece. Iranian [06:00] President Masud Peslan and Russian [06:02] President Vladimir Putin met on the [06:04] sidelines of the summit of the [06:05] Commonwealth of Independent States. [06:06] That's what we read about in the [06:07] previous piece. And they reiterated [06:10] their commitment to economic and [06:12] strategic cooperation. Look at this. The [06:15] Russian president said bilateral trade [06:17] between Iran and Russia grew by 21% in [06:19] 2025 and continued to increase in 2026, [06:23] which might be hard to believe. Maybe [06:25] it's true, maybe it's not. I don't know. [06:27] But Russia does have overland trade [06:30] routes to get into Iran. They're not [06:32] necessarily affected by the US blockade, [06:34] and they don't really care about US [06:35] sanctions. Pestrian and Putin also [06:38] stressed the need to accelerate the [06:40] finalization and completion of joint [06:42] projects, reaffirming their commitment [06:45] to expanding comprehensive cooperation [06:47] in line with the national interests of [06:49] both countries and regional stability. [06:54] Okay, that's the piece. Great. So, they [06:56] met, but then we had this piece a couple [06:59] days before. [07:01] Why is Moscow standing with Thran? a [07:03] whole front page analytical piece about [07:06] why there's such a great relationship [07:07] between these two countries. Think about [07:08] that. That's the whole point of the [07:10] piece. In recent months, every time US [07:13] and Western pressure on Iran has [07:14] intensified, one name has appeared more [07:17] prominently alongside Thran. Russia. [07:20] It's no longer Russia and China. Now [07:21] it's Russia. for from Vladimir Putin's [07:24] statements on the war and sanctions to [07:26] coordination between Moscow and Beijing [07:28] at the UN Security Council, there are [07:30] numerous signs of Russia's support for [07:32] Thran. But reducing the relationship to [07:35] a shared opposition to the United States [07:37] overlooks an important part of the [07:38] picture. The growing ties between Iran [07:41] and Russia are not the result of a [07:43] temporary political decision. [07:47] Putin's recent remarks at the Valdai [07:50] discussion club were among the latest [07:52] indications of Russia's position towards [07:54] Iran. Putin spoke about the resistance [07:56] of the Iranian people and described the [07:59] assassination of Ali Larijani, Iran's [08:02] late secretary of the Supreme National [08:04] Security Council, as a major mistake [08:06] given his readiness for dialogue. [08:08] Larijani was assassinated by the [08:10] Israelis a couple weeks into the war [08:12] back in March. He also said Moscow [08:14] wanted the straight of Hormuz to reopen [08:16] as soon as possible, opposed military [08:18] aggression, and considered negotiations [08:20] essential for resolving disputes. Putin [08:23] also called for the lifting of what he [08:24] described as unjust sanctions against [08:26] Iran. On the nuclear issue, Russia [08:29] continues to support a proposal for Iran [08:31] to transfer part of its enriched uranium [08:34] to Russian territory. The support has [08:37] also been visible internationally. Last [08:39] month, Russia and China voted against [08:42] the US drafted resolution seeking to [08:44] extend the mandate of the panel of [08:45] experts of UN Security Council's 1737 [08:49] committee using their vetos to block its [08:51] adoption. That's a word salad. [08:52] Basically, what happened was last month [08:54] there was a UN Security Council [08:56] resolution against Iran. The Russia and [08:58] China vetoed it. So, they mentioned [08:59] China in the fact that they also vetoed [09:01] that last month. [09:03] Importantly, Moscow itself views such [09:06] steps as practical support for Thran. [09:09] Dmitri Medvidev, deputy chairman of [09:11] Russia's security council, said in a [09:13] recent interview that Moscow's [09:15] diplomatic efforts to support Iran, [09:16] including preventing the adoption of [09:19] certain security council resolutions, [09:21] constituted direct assistance to Thran. [09:24] At the same time, he stressed that [09:25] Iranussia relations are strategic but do [09:28] not amount to the creation of a military [09:30] block. Iranian foreign ministry [09:32] spokesman Ismail Bagayi also said [09:34] recently that Tehran and Moscow maintain [09:37] continuous coordination in bilateral [09:39] relations and within international [09:41] organizations including the UN security [09:43] council and the SEO. He said the two [09:46] countries share positions on [09:48] unilateralism and militarism in many [09:50] cases. But why is Moscow supporting [09:52] Thran at this level? And now it talks [09:54] about why they're such good friends. [09:56] Iran and Russia are neighbors and the [09:58] security of both countries is closely [09:59] linked to the developments in the [10:01] Caucuses, Central Asia, the Caspian Sea, [10:03] and the Middle East. For Moscow, Iran is [10:06] more than a country to its south. Iran [10:08] is one of Russia's key routes to the [10:09] Persian Gulf, the Indian Ocean, and the [10:12] markets of South Asia. The international [10:14] north south transport corridor is a [10:16] clear example of this importance, [10:18] connecting Russia to India, and other [10:21] southern markets through Iran. [10:24] The relationship entered a more [10:25] structured framework in January 2025 [10:27] with the signing of a comprehensive [10:29] strategic partnership treaty. The 47 [10:32] article treaty covers areas including [10:34] politics and security, energy, trade, [10:36] transportation, banking, technology, and [10:38] international cooperation. Now, this is [10:40] I think this I thought this was the most [10:42] interesting paragraph in the whole [10:43] article. One important section addresses [10:47] unilateral measures imposed by third [10:49] countries. The two sides committed to [10:52] working together to reduce the effects [10:54] of such measures against each other and [10:56] to refrain from joining unilateral [10:58] coercive actions. This provision helps [11:01] explain at least part of Russia's [11:02] current position toward US sanctions on [11:04] Iran. In other words, there's a section [11:06] in their comprehensive strategic [11:09] agreement that they signed in January [11:10] 2025 that specifically talks about [11:13] sanctions being placed by third [11:15] countries on one of them and working [11:17] together to get around them. So when the [11:19] Russians work with the Iranians to get [11:21] around the US sanctions, that's actually [11:23] something that they had included in [11:25] their agreement. However, the Tehran [11:27] Moscow treaty is not a conventional [11:29] mutual defense pact. Russia is not [11:32] obligated to deploy military forces in [11:34] the event of an attack on Iran. Its main [11:37] commitments are to refrain from [11:38] assisting an aggressor to cooperate in [11:40] reducing the effects of unilateral [11:42] measures. Basically, this paragraph is a [11:45] way of saying, "Hey, if we're telling [11:47] you how close our relationship is and [11:48] how we have the strategic partnership, [11:50] why aren't they helping us militarily?" [11:52] So, this is saying cuz it's not part of [11:54] the agreement. Okay. [11:57] Another dimension of the growing [11:59] relationship lies in the two countries [12:00] shared view of the international order. [12:03] Right? Iran is a member of the SEO, the [12:06] Shanghai Cooperation Organization. They [12:08] join BRICS. Russia is also a member of [12:10] both. Another factor is their shared [12:12] experience with sanctions. They've both [12:14] been sanctioned by the US. How far will [12:17] Russia go with Iran? Closer ties between [12:20] Thran and Moscow do not mean that the [12:22] two countries have identical interests [12:23] on every issue or that Russia is [12:25] prepared to bear any cost for Iran. [12:28] Medve's recent remarks suggest that [12:30] Moscow is currently trying to make the [12:32] limits of this commitment clear to Iran [12:34] to Thran and other actors. He explicit [12:37] explicitly said Russia would not [12:39] sacrifice its strategic relationship [12:41] with Iran for any other country and [12:44] described the two countries as strategic [12:46] partners. Wow, so committed. He also [12:48] proposed that Russia mediate an end to [12:50] the war between Iran and the United [12:52] States. Relations between Thran and [12:55] Moscow have become more [12:56] multi-dimensional than ever. geography, [12:58] security, transit, sanctions, [13:01] shared views of the international order [13:03] have created a set of common interests [13:05] that makes cooperation meaningful for [13:07] both sides. For that reason, the [13:09] relationship between Iran and Russia may [13:11] be described most accurately with one [13:13] word, convergence. The two countries [13:15] have found common ground on some of the [13:18] most important issues facing them today, [13:20] and that's what's brought them closer. [13:22] also from Iranian state media and this [13:24] is from yesterday. Russia welcomes [13:26] diplomatic efforts to reduce tensions, [13:29] offers Iran assistance. [13:32] Okay, so what happened here? Massud [13:35] Peshan, he spoke with Putin by phone, [13:37] congratulating him on his birthday. Uh [13:40] Putin thanked him for the birthday [13:42] wishes. They pointed to expanding [13:44] relationships. And then we have this [13:47] piece from last week. Russell reviewing [13:49] new sites for nuclear power plants in [13:52] Iran. Russam CEO Alexe Lachev said [13:54] Tuesday, that's last Tuesday, that the [13:56] Russian State Nuclear Corporation is [13:59] reviewing several new sites in Iran for [14:02] the construction of nuclear power [14:03] plants. [14:06] 80% No, I'm sorry. He said that 80 [14:08] Russotam employees had now returned to [14:11] Iran and are working on the construction [14:13] of two new units at the Busher nuclear [14:16] power plant. [14:18] And then we have this one from today. [14:20] Iran eyes up to 20 billion in exports to [14:22] Russia, says this official. [14:26] And this is all about expanding trade. [14:29] Exports to Russia currently are in the 1 [14:31] to2 billion range. and he's talking [14:33] about expanding them to 20 billion in [14:35] trade with Russia, [14:39] right? That's what this is about. So, [14:41] put all this together. [14:43] Remember, when you're talking about [14:46] headlines and stories in state media, [14:48] it's a press release. It's what it's the [14:50] messaging they want you to see. [14:53] Putin shaking hands with Pestrean after [14:55] Xinping wouldn't shake his hand, [14:59] right? They discuss economic strategic [15:02] cooperation. They met in Turk Manistan. [15:06] Why is Russia so why is Moscow so close? [15:08] This is a headline. This is a front page [15:10] story. [15:12] Why is Moscow standing by? A whole [15:14] analytical piece about why they're such [15:15] close allies, [15:18] right? Russia's going to be the [15:19] mediator. Russatam is building nuclear [15:22] facilities for them. We're going to [15:24] expand trade by tenfold. [15:27] all about how strong the relationship is [15:28] with Russia. You know why? Because Iran [15:31] doesn't have other friends. [15:33] Iran is increasingly isolated. What the [15:36] Americans are doing is scaring everyone [15:39] else away. Uh so you even have a story [15:44] about how they are hoping to get their [15:47] relationship with Pakistan back. Hoping [15:50] they're hoping they can get it back [15:54] because things are strained. because the [15:56] Pakistanis who want to help them are [15:59] afraid to help them. [16:02] Right? That's what's going on here. [16:05] So Iran doesn't have a lot of friends. [16:08] The one friend that they have that [16:10] they're claiming that's willing to be [16:12] seen with them in public is Russia. So [16:15] they are leaning in to the Russia [16:17] relationship to say that they're not [16:19] alone. They're not totally isolated. [16:20] That's what that is about. All right, [16:23] we're going to leave this one there and [16:24] I'm going to do part two now and it's [16:26] going to be about the Iran China [16:28] relationship. So stay tuned for that. [16:30] But before you go, before you go, um, [16:34] Knesset elections town hall. This was a [16:36] big event that we had in Jerusalem this [16:38] past Sunday night. It was a fantastic [16:40] event. We, it was a soldout crowd at the [16:43] big at the Beagan Heritage Center. We [16:45] had representatives from the Knesset [16:47] lists of 10 parties in Israel speaking [16:49] in English to the English-speaking [16:51] community of Jerusalem. They answered [16:53] questions. They laid out their [16:54] platforms. It was a terrific evening. [16:57] And if you want to watch this event, [16:59] really get, you know, get up to speed on [17:00] what the different parties are saying [17:02] and see this this uh this debate in [17:04] action moderated by yours truly, uh go [17:07] ahead and click the link in the [17:08] description of this video or go to the [17:10] uh the web the website uh [17:12] israel365.com/occtober [17:15] 4th, October the number fourth [17:18] and uh just just click through there and [17:21] you can get access to the full event [17:23] that you could watch on your own. So, [17:25] uh, yeah, go ahead and do that and, uh, [17:28] get caught up on what's going on with [17:29] the Israeli elections and I'll see you [17:30] in the next one. Okay, next up, China.
