Transcript [00:05] Welcome to Waiting for 61, JTA's Israel [00:07] Election Podcast, [music] [00:09] where we break down the fundamentals of [00:10] Israel's 2026 elections, the politics, [00:13] the players, [music] and what's at stake [00:15] as the country heads to the polls. I'm [00:17] Amy Eden, CEO and executive editor of [00:20] Semifaces Media, the organization behind [00:22] the Jewish [music] Telegraphic Agency. [00:24] Our usual co-host Ruth Egllesh, JTA's [00:27] senior Israel correspondent, [music] is [00:29] out in the field reporting today. [00:31] Instead, we are joined by JTA's global [00:33] [music] editor, Tovo Lazerov. Today [00:36] marks 11 days until Israelis cast their [00:38] votes, and we're here to keep you up to [00:40] speed on the latest twist and turns [00:42] [music] and give you the context you [00:44] need to make sense of it all. Today is [00:46] Friday, [music] so we'll be answering [00:48] questions from you, our listeners. [00:49] Remember, if something sparks your [00:51] curiosity or there's an aspect of [00:53] Israeli [music] politics you'd like us [00:55] to explain, send us your questions to [00:58] waiting for61jta.org. [01:03] Tova welcome. [01:05] >> Thank you so much for having me. [01:07] >> All right, let's start with some [01:08] questions that came in via email from [01:10] our listeners. So, the first question [01:13] comes from Kobe in Philadelphia. [01:16] What's with the surplus deals? [01:19] >> That's how you know that every vote [01:21] counts. So remember, we have 120 seats. [01:24] We're trying to get 61. And you don't [01:27] want to lose the ball game because you [01:30] only have 60 when you could have had 61. [01:33] Every party that enters the Knesset has [01:35] to have at least four seats. So every [01:38] party walks out of the elections with a [01:40] certain amount of seats. And every seat [01:43] is a number of voters. Let's just say [01:45] 30,000. But let's say you have 15,000 [01:47] over. You don't want to lose them. You [01:49] have two parties. Each had 15. They're [01:52] in the same coalition block. That 30,000 [01:55] could get lost. Or the two parties could [01:57] have a deal to make sure that that [01:59] 30,000 gives you one more vote. One more [02:03] vote. 6061. That's the surplus deal. [02:06] >> Okay, Tov. I I think I get it. Well, [02:08] let's just make sure. I'll say it back [02:10] to you. We have two right-wing parties. [02:12] They're both in the Netanyahu block. [02:14] They each get in with four seats. So, [02:18] they hit the 3.25% [02:20] vote threshold to get four seats. They [02:22] each need a 30,000 extra to get a fifth [02:25] seat. They both fall short of that next [02:28] 30,000. Instead of those disappearing in [02:31] the air, they come back together and so [02:34] they get one seat. [02:36] >> Yeah. [02:36] >> All right. Let's go to the second [02:38] question comes from confused. How can [02:42] anyone keep all these parties straight? [02:45] Before you answer Tova, let me just give [02:48] a a plug. One way to keep them straight [02:50] is to go to the JTA Israel election [02:53] interactive page um which TOVA you help [02:57] put together and that will give you more [03:01] information than you could possibly want [03:03] to know. It has a build your own [03:06] coalition function and we will put that [03:08] in the show notes. Okay, so Tova, back [03:11] to the question. How can anyone keep all [03:13] these parties straight? Let's walk it [03:15] through. Uh, we have three camps [03:18] basically, right? We have the Netanyahu [03:21] existing coalition in that block. We [03:24] have the opposition block which really [03:27] has an amalgamation of different types [03:29] of parties. And then we have an aligned [03:32] c unaligned camp of parties that don't [03:34] necessarily have necessarily attached to [03:37] either [03:38] group. So let's walk through it. First, [03:40] let's talk about the five parties in [03:44] Netanyahu's existing coalition that is [03:48] the bedrock of his block. [03:51] >> Right? So obviously the one everybody [03:53] knows is Leud, which is the classic [03:55] right-wing party, and they know it [03:57] because Netanyahu is longest serving [03:58] prime minister, and the entire time he's [04:01] been the head of Le could. Then there [04:03] are two smaller parties that most people [04:05] outside of Israel had never heard from [04:07] until Ben became the national security [04:10] minister and he heads a party called [04:13] Maya Hudit and he's made a lot of waves [04:17] for his policies so people would know [04:19] him less the party the religious Zionist [04:22] party which is headed by finance [04:24] minister Balosmotri [04:26] >> you mentioned it Benvir and Balosmotrich [04:30] when people see that this is the most [04:32] right-wing government in Israel in [04:34] Israel's history. Those are the two [04:37] parties that are making it that way. [04:39] Correct. Those are the people talk about [04:41] far-right parties. This is this is [04:43] what's new for BB's coalition is that in [04:45] the past Yes. He's had he's had more [04:48] centrist parties. But just so to for our [04:51] listeners who might not be as plugged [04:53] in, when you see that this is the most [04:55] right-wing government in Israel's [04:57] history, [04:59] Benvir and Smootrich are the really the [05:01] ones who are moving the the the [05:04] coalition in a more right-wing direction [05:06] than previous Netanyahu governments. [05:09] >> Yes. I mean, I think also the Likood has [05:11] moved much more to the right. Remember [05:13] the Leood did disengagement. [05:16] disengagement from Gaza [05:17] >> from G left Gaza, right? That wasn't [05:20] under Netanyahu, but remember Netanyahu [05:22] entered gave government in 2009 by [05:25] giving a very famous speech that he [05:26] supported two states and now he leads a [05:28] party that doesn't support it and he's [05:30] disavowed that. So, not not only are [05:33] they being pulled farright, but the [05:36] party itself has gone far right. And the [05:38] joke is that Netanyahu is actually the [05:40] mo most moderate member both of his [05:42] party and that coalition. But Nutano has [05:45] classically had two partners, not [05:47] necessarily far right, but part of [05:49] what's helped him keep stay in power is [05:50] that he's classically had two ultra [05:52] re-religious parties, UTJ and Shas. And [05:56] technically speaking, what made them [05:58] such great partners is they never really [06:00] cared about diplomacy. They always cared [06:03] more about domestic policies. It's only [06:05] been lately that they themselves have [06:07] also started to take on some of what [06:11] Americans might see as right-wing issues [06:14] such as the West Bank treaty in Samaria. [06:17] >> Just to give I want to give people a [06:18] taste of with Ben and Smootrich what we [06:20] mean when we're talking about farright. [06:22] They would both be very comfortable or [06:26] advocate for Israel getting back into [06:29] taking over Gaza permanently. They want [06:32] to expand settlements and oh yeah sure [06:34] that there's no Palestinian state. Um [06:38] Israel should keep all all the land from [06:41] the Jordan River to the Mediterranean. [06:44] So that [06:45] >> just want to give people sense and then [06:47] let's talk about the other aspect of [06:49] this coalition. You have like you [06:52] mentioned we have Netanyahu and Likood. [06:54] We have the two far rightling parties [06:56] and then we have the two Karedi parties. [06:58] tell us about those two parties and [07:01] maybe a little bit about how they're [07:02] different because you know everybody [07:04] just says, "Oh, the Kared parties, but [07:06] let's let's hear about the the two of [07:08] them and and what's the difference?" [07:10] >> Ultimately, [07:11] their heads are really spiritual heads, [07:14] right? like in in a normative political [07:17] sense, your head is um is a politician [07:22] and so they represent the two splits in [07:28] Judaism which is the Ashkenazi Jews and [07:30] the Spharti Jews. [07:32] >> So Shas is the Sphartic [07:36] and United toward Judaism which itself [07:39] is what was an amalgamation but we don't [07:42] have to get it. So that's what that's [07:44] like the Ashkanazi parties. [07:45] >> That's the Ashkanazi ones. Yes. [07:47] >> Right. Can you clarify one thing? You [07:49] mentioned that each of these parties has [07:52] a spiritual leader, but those spiritual [07:54] leaders are not on the lists, right? The [07:57] person at the top of each party list is [07:59] sort of taking their marching orders and [08:00] theory from the their respective [08:03] spiritual leaders. [08:04] >> They're the political arm of of a [08:07] religious group, right? In a way that [08:09] for the most part the other parties are [08:11] not. And so if for example if the [08:15] rebbitical authority says do this on a [08:18] policy they're going to do that and [08:20] there aren't other parties that really [08:23] operate that way but the people who vote [08:25] for them that's what they're looking [08:27] for. They're looking for that [08:28] combination of spirituality and [08:30] politics. [08:31] >> Okay. So let's move to the opposition [08:34] block. We talked in a previous episode [08:37] about Gotti Eisenkot, the former Israeli [08:41] chief of staff who is leading the Yashar [08:45] party, which is the new party that has [08:50] jumped to the front of the polls. So, if [08:53] you look at it now, they're in first [08:55] place at around 20 to 23 seats. Some [08:59] some polls have the we could tied. Let's [09:02] not waste time with him. If you want to [09:04] hear more about Gotti Eisenhot and the [09:06] Ashar party, go to our deep dive [09:08] episode. Let's talk about the other [09:11] parties in that in that coalition. Let's [09:14] and let's start with the the party [09:16] called Bayad, which I think people who [09:19] are paying a little bit of attention [09:20] would have expected six nine months ago [09:23] that party which brought together [09:24] Naftali Bennett and Yer Laid, they would [09:28] have expected those two to be in the [09:30] front of the polls. Like that was the [09:32] thinking when they came together. [09:33] Bennett at the top, Leed number two. [09:37] Talk to us about that merger [09:40] and why that party is not in the front [09:43] of the polls in the opposition and is, [09:46] you know, eating dust from uh from Gotti [09:48] Eisen. [09:49] >> So that party is led by two politicians, [09:53] Naftali Bennett and Year Laid. and they [09:56] are an amazing odd couple of Israeli [09:59] politics because laid is a centrist. [10:04] He's spoken in support of a two-state [10:07] resolution to the conflict and [10:11] Naftali Bennett is right-wing. At one [10:15] point he was the director general of the [10:16] Yesesha Council which is you know uh the [10:20] settller's main [10:22] main organizing political group. So I [10:25] it's it's interesting to see them come [10:28] together politically and they've really [10:31] banded together on issues that are not [10:34] about the Israeli Palestinian conflict [10:36] but are issues around democracy and [10:39] their very deep belief that Netanyahu is [10:43] overstayed his time in office and that [10:46] it's become dangerous for the country to [10:48] have Netanyahu in office and so they put [10:50] aside political differences [10:53] to form term really a cohesive party [10:56] that actually carries a certain line in [11:00] the idea that what you need to do now is [11:03] build a coalition of parties dedicated [11:06] to democracy in Israel and work towards [11:10] pushing Netanyahu out of office. They [11:12] were expected to be the largest party. [11:14] That's why they joined forces because [11:16] they wanted to get the most amount of [11:18] votes. that they were overtaken by God [11:20] Eisenot because he comes with a [11:23] narrative that feels very compelling to [11:26] Israelis post October 7th because [11:29] security is such a huge issue, right? [11:32] And he used to be the former IDF chief [11:34] of staff because people feel like they [11:37] can trust him and he won't politicize [11:39] security because he lost his son in Gaza [11:41] and two nephews. His story is the [11:44] people's story and that's drawn a lot of [11:47] people to him even though he doesn't [11:49] have pragmatic experience in politics [11:52] and and government in any substantive [11:53] way. [11:54] >> You mentioned they're unified in their [11:55] desire to be to basically push out [11:58] Netanyahu is like their main thing, but [12:02] also they are hawkish critics of [12:05] Netanyahu when it comes to Iran. Both of [12:07] them have advocated for even harsher [12:10] action on Iran and its proxies. So, I [12:13] think we talked about this in a previous [12:14] episode. It's interesting for people in [12:16] America who are thinking, "Oh, if [12:18] Netanyahu loses, it's going to be a big [12:21] change." They at least on certain [12:23] security issues, they at least talk the [12:25] game of being even more hawkish than [12:27] Netanyahu on certain issues. [12:29] >> In some ways, this is an election that's [12:31] about trust at its very core. And [12:34] security is such a huge piece of this [12:36] election, but the security differences [12:38] between the two parties are not so huge. [12:42] It really comes down to do you trust the [12:46] person who's going to pick up the phone [12:47] in the middle of the night or do you [12:49] not. What they're saying is it's not so [12:52] much that we're different, but we're not [12:54] going to politicize it. You can trust [12:56] that when we tell you we need to go to [12:58] war, we need to go to war with [13:00] Netanyaho. Maybe he's doing it to stay [13:03] in office and maybe not. That's why [13:05] there's a lot of talk now about whether [13:07] or not there might be an Iran war by way [13:11] of influencing the elections. [13:13] >> But you you contrasted with Netanyahu [13:15] when you talked about trust. But I think [13:17] it's also in play. I mean this is my [13:19] perception from sitting over here. Trust [13:21] is also in play when you're talking [13:23] about Eisenhot versus Bennett and Leed. [13:26] Um [13:28] >> tr trust on two levels. One just because [13:31] um Eisenhot is a military leader. [13:34] Bennett certainly, you know, was a [13:36] soldier who has a a track record, but he [13:39] wasn't a weer in the military in the way [13:41] Eisenhau was. And, you know, Leed is [13:44] basically a TV anchor turned politician. [13:48] Nobody sees him as military credentials, [13:51] but it's also more than that, right? [13:53] with Bennett in the 2021 election we [13:57] talked about where Bennett got the six [13:58] seats and ended up prime minister. He [14:01] had been very [14:04] clear that he was going to be in the [14:05] Netanyahaku block and then in the end [14:07] when that block wasn't coming together [14:09] he he jumped to the change block and [14:11] really like left people upset and angry [14:15] in his camp that he did a switcheroo [14:18] like that. So I think he, you know, we [14:20] often talked about does Netanyahu suffer [14:23] from a reputation of political [14:25] maneuvering and what you can trust, but [14:27] Bennett and Laid I think also have a a [14:31] reputation fair or unfair of being seen [14:34] as political maneuvers whereas Gotti [14:37] like we've talked about before is seen [14:39] as a a relative political novice. And [14:42] that comes with some negatives. But the [14:43] positive people think you can believe [14:46] what he says, you know, even if he [14:47] doesn't say it in an articulate way, you [14:49] can believe it. [14:50] >> Yes. Yes. For sure. [14:52] >> So, another big pillar in the um [14:55] opposition block is Avidor Lieberman and [14:58] his [15:00] Israel Betenu party. Tell us a little [15:02] bit about Avidor Lieberman and his [15:05] voters. [15:06] >> Avidor Lieberman is one of the more [15:08] interesting characters in this drama. He [15:12] is from the former Soviet Union. He's [15:14] secular and he's very right-wing. [15:18] Yet, he's joined with politicians that [15:21] he otherwise does not support because he [15:24] is so bent on the idea that Netanyahu is [15:27] dangerous for Israel that he is willing [15:30] to join a coalition of people that are [15:34] not necessarily in his camp. He also has [15:36] a very strong sense of the separation [15:40] between religion and state. He feels [15:42] there should be civil marriage in [15:43] Israel. He you know he believes very [15:45] strongly in drafting [15:48] um kared men. He started really with a [15:52] reputation more like Smatrich and Ben as [15:55] being on the far right and then he kind [15:58] of [16:00] remade himself as almost like the sage [16:03] politician, you know, who who says smart [16:07] things about the political process and [16:09] people really believe him. [16:11] >> You can imagine he would sit out a [16:14] government if it didn't if it didn't [16:16] meet his basic white rhymes. And I want [16:18] to give one case in point. In 2018, he [16:22] was a defense minister in a Netanyahu le [16:26] government. And when Netanyahu brought [16:28] an earlier kamas war in Gaza to an end [16:32] fairly quickly, Lieberman was defense [16:35] minister and resigned because he said, [16:37] "This is going to come back to bite us. [16:39] We stopped this war too early. Not many [16:41] Israeli politicians are going to walk [16:43] away from a defense ministry portfolio." [16:47] Um but he did. [16:48] >> Not only that, but everyone thought he [16:50] was going to be be the kingmaker in that [16:52] next election. They expected him to join [16:54] Netanyahu's government and he didn't. [16:58] And then, you know, everybody went back [17:00] to elections. [17:01] >> Other major party in the in this group. [17:04] >> Oh, yes. Yay Golad. Thank you. [17:05] >> Yes. Yay Golan and the Democrats. Well, [17:08] we we'll do an episode unpacking them [17:10] and why on earth they're Democrats in [17:11] Israel, but just tell us give us a [17:13] snapshot about Ya Golan and and what [17:16] that what this new party of the [17:18] Democrats is. [17:19] >> Right. So, one of the historic things in [17:21] this election is that for you know for [17:23] the first time in a very long time, you [17:25] don't have the Labor Party. the Labor [17:27] Party and uh party more to the left [17:30] merits merged together and they became [17:33] this new party called the Democrats [17:35] who's headed also by a former IDF [17:39] general Ergolan um who is very strongly [17:44] critical of Netanyahu very strongly [17:46] critical of his policies but also pretty [17:49] outspoken in his support for two states [17:52] so he's sort of like the odd man out the [17:56] what you know what used to be it used to [17:59] be like Labor would get 40 [18:02] seats or more now he's trying to hold on [18:05] to 10. He's really what's left of the [18:08] Israeli left and he's gone into a [18:12] coalition with all these other people [18:14] with the same idea that Israeli [18:16] democracy is at stake and that the c [18:18] that to save the country you have to get [18:20] Netanyahu out of power. And I'll just do [18:22] another sort of America comparison. When [18:25] when Bangir and Smotri on the far right [18:28] came into the government and a lot of [18:30] American Jews were disturbed by that, I [18:34] always say that if you want to [18:36] understand the difference between [18:37] Israeli Jews and American Jews, it's not [18:39] about Ben Vernotrich because ultimately [18:41] they got a fairly small percentage of [18:44] the Israeli Jewish vote. The big [18:47] difference is what you said that merits [18:49] and labor, the left got 10 seats. [18:53] Basically, the the Jewish public in [18:55] Israel basically cast about 10% of their [18:58] votes for the left wing. And I I always [19:01] say if you had an election between [19:03] Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden, and Donald [19:06] Trump, you would probably have a third [19:08] of the Jews would vote for Bernie [19:10] Sanders, a third of the Jews for Biden, [19:12] and a third for Trump. So it's really [19:17] it's really stark how little support the [19:20] left in Israel has when you compare it [19:23] to what the left support that you would [19:26] have in America. Okay, finally let's [19:28] wrap up with quick rundown of the [19:32] unaligned parties. And what's hilarious [19:35] to me about the unaligned parties is you [19:38] have parties that are unaligned be like [19:41] because you can't decide. You're willing [19:43] to go in either one, right? You have [19:46] unaligned parties that would love to be [19:49] in a coalition but the coalition doesn't [19:51] want them. You have unaligned parties [19:54] where it's not clear if they're willing [19:56] to join either because they have so many [19:58] red lines. So it's typical Israeli. [20:01] We're talking about online, but on [20:02] online could mean a lot of different [20:04] things. So, let's quickly I know there a [20:06] lot of other parties. Let's start with [20:07] Benny Gance. Let's talk about his blue [20:10] and white party. What What does it mean [20:12] when we say that they're unaligned? [20:14] >> Technically speaking, they belong in [20:16] Eisenkot's block. But Benny Gance has a [20:18] history of sitting with Netanyahu in the [20:21] name of the good of the country. And so [20:23] therefore, people don't trust that he's [20:27] going to stay where they think he's [20:29] going to stay. So for example, Avdor [20:31] Lieberman is never sitting with [20:32] Netanyahu. Benny Gance [20:35] people think could go either way. The [20:37] big thing about Benny Gance, just to [20:39] note, is that in past elections, he was [20:42] leading the largest block. He was a [20:44] prime ministerial contender. He was [20:46] getting as many votes as Netanyahu. And [20:48] now it's very unlikely that his party [20:50] will pass the threshold, which means [20:52] it's very unlikely to enter the Knesset. [20:54] If it does, he would definitely be one [20:56] of the kingmakers in the election. Oh, [20:58] and the reason he's dropped in large [21:00] part is is precisely because he's been [21:03] willing to flip back and forth and [21:06] people either want Netanyahu or they [21:08] don't. They're not interested in [21:09] somebody who's willing to do it. Pick a [21:12] side is is what is where the voters are [21:14] right now. Um let's talk about two [21:16] right-wing parties that are unaligned, [21:19] which is a little confusing, right? [21:21] Because if you think, oh, they should [21:22] definitely want Netanyahu. [21:24] >> Let's just take, you know, Ofer Winter's [21:26] party, right? um they're making a big [21:29] splash because I think their idea is [21:31] they would get the right wingers that [21:33] weren't going to vote Lee could but then [21:35] they would make an alliance with the [21:37] LEU. But overwinter has kind of gone [21:41] back and forth. It's not a complete [21:43] match with the Likood. He totally [21:45] believes in the Karedi draft which would [21:47] be hard to make him a member of a Likood [21:50] coalition which actually can't really [21:52] support a Karedi draft. And so [21:56] what people are really are afraid of is [21:58] that he's not going to pass the [22:00] threshold, but he's going to take away [22:01] votes from Liood. And because of him, [22:03] the Li could actually drop. So now [22:06] Netanyahu is actually going against him. [22:08] But either way, he's unaligned only. [22:10] He's with the right, but people don't [22:12] believe it. They think he might go with [22:14] the opposition block. [22:15] >> He keeps saying, "I'll join Netanyahu as [22:18] long as the are drafted." But that's [22:20] like an impossible mathematical equation [22:22] right now. [22:23] >> Exactly. and and and it's the same and [22:25] basically this is the same dynamic with [22:27] the reserveist party the the party of [22:30] that's pitching itself as a right-wing [22:31] party to um reserveists in in the [22:35] military who are upset about [22:38] not being drafted. Their political [22:40] leanings would be with the Netanyahu [22:42] block, but it's the same problem. And [22:45] >> they're presumed to be in the opposition [22:47] block, but you never know. Yes. And then [22:50] finally, we have twohour parties and [22:52] we're going to get into them in a later [22:54] episode. So, let me I'm just going to [22:55] wrap it up here and tell me if I'm [22:56] getting this right, but you basically [22:58] have the joint list and you have Ram. [23:01] And the joint list is a they're bringing [23:04] together a few communist far call it a [23:07] far-left Arab party and Ram with Mansour [23:11] Abbas whose name people might be [23:13] familiar with and again we'll get into [23:15] it a different episode. They're more of [23:17] a [23:18] traditionalist Islamist party almost [23:22] like maybe not exactly like party but [23:24] they're in within the Arab we all say [23:27] Arab parties but they're two very [23:28] different parties. So say a little bit [23:30] more about Ram [23:33] which had been in the anti-BB change [23:37] government and would like to be again [23:40] but it's unclear if they will. They play [23:43] that same model in terms of really [23:45] caring about domestic issues more and [23:48] prioritizing that rather than the larger [23:51] diplomatic questions and by doing that [23:54] they are able to form a coalition with [23:57] Zionist parties. The problem is is that [24:00] the Israeli voter is not necessarily so [24:03] much [24:05] wanting their government to have an Arab [24:08] party in it because there's so much [24:09] distrust. And so it's expected that the [24:14] opposition parties will form a coalition [24:15] with Rahm. But it's not clear and some [24:19] of them have spoken about not doing it. [24:21] It's just that nobody believes them [24:23] because they did it before. [24:24] >> So basically you have the joint list [24:27] which historically has said we will not [24:29] be in any coalition, any Zionist [24:30] coalition. Now they've said we're not [24:32] going to be in any Zionist coalition but [24:34] we will provide votes to any anti-BB [24:38] coalition. And then you have Ron which [24:41] very much wants to be they're unaligned [24:44] not because they want to be because but [24:46] it's unclear if the opposition block [24:48] will let them in this time post October [24:51] 7th environment. Okay Tova thanks for [24:53] being here today and helping us break it [24:55] down. [24:56] >> Thanks for having me [24:57] >> and thank you to our producer Maya [24:59] Rackov. Please make sure to join us [25:01] Monday for the next episode of Waiting [25:02] for 61. And don't forget to send your [25:05] questions for next Friday's mailbag. The [25:07] email is waiting461jta.org. [music]
